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Latest results from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

Overview

This report contains the results for real GDP growth expectations from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF).

Table 1 provides a comparison of the latest SPF data with other expectations and projections.

For more detailed information on the data contact the SPF team at ECB-SPF@ecb.europa.eu.



Table 1 - SPF results for real GDP growth in comparison with other expectations and projections

year-on-year percentage changes

Source: SPF, ECB staff macroeconomic projections and Consensus Economics.

Notes: Longer-term expectations refer to 2029.

Expectations for real GDP growth

In the quantitative questionnaire, respondents are asked to provide their point forecasts for real GDP growth for six future target periods, expressed in year-on-year percentage changes. The questionnaire asks for annual average real GDP growth for the current calendar year and the following two years, as well as for the longer term (which, depending on the timing of the survey may be as much as four or five calendar years in the future). It also asks for quarterly forecasts for rolling horizons one and two years ahead of the latest published datapoint, as these support a more robust analysis of uncertainty surrounding the forecasts.
Besides the point forecasts, respondents are also asked to provide probability distributions using fixed bins.

Chart 1

Expectations for real GDP growth

calendar year forecasts (annual percentage changes)

Source: SPF.

Chart 2

Expectations for real GDP growth

rolling horizon forecasts (annual percentage changes)

Source: SPF.

Chart 3

Expected profile of GDP growth in the short term

(quarter-on-quarter percentage changes)

Source: SPF.

Notes: The grey area indicates one standard deviation (of individual expectations) around average expectations in the SPF for Q2 2025.

Chart 4

Profile for real GDP levels implied from forecast growth rates

(index: 2022 = 100)

Source: SPF, ECB staff macroeconomic projections and own calculations.

Notes: Growth expectations for years not surveyed have been interpolated linearly.

Chart 5

Aggregate probability distributions for expected real GDP growth

(x-axis: annual percentage changes; y-axis: probability, percentages)

2025
2026
2027
longer term

Source: SPF.

Notes: The SPF asks respondents to report their point forecasts and, separately, to assign probabilities to different ranges of outcomes. This chart shows the average probabilities assigned to different ranges of real GDP growth outcomes in 2025, 2026, 2027 and in the longer term.
Longer-term expectations refer to 2029.