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Fourth ECB/CBRT Conference

Economic growth and income convergence

2 and 3 September 2016

Izmir, Turkey

Programme

Friday, 2 September 2016

* indicates the presenter

8:30

Registration

9:00

Opening remarks

Mr Murat Uysal, Deputy Governor, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

9:15

Keynote speech

Mr M. Ayhan Kose, Director of the World Bank Group’s Development Prospects Group, World Bank

10:00

Coffee break

10:30

Session 1: Sectoral growth

Chair: Livio Stracca, European Central Bank

Who gains from better access to credit? Heterogeneous firm responses and the reallocation of resources

Jens Matthias Arnold*, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Lisandra Flach, University of Munich

Discussant: Livio Stracca, European Central Bank

Labour reallocation and productivity dynamics: financial causes, real consequences

Claudio Borio, Bank for International Settlements
Enisse Kharroubi, Bank for International Settlements
Christian Upper, Bank for International Settlements
Fabrizio Zampolli*, Bank for International Settlements

Discussant: Semih Tümen, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Towards recoupling? Assessing the global impact of a Chinese hard landing through trade and commodity price channels

Ludovic Gauvin, EconomiX-CNRS, Banque de France
Cyril Rebillard*, International Monetary Fund

Discussant: Ünal Seven, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

12:45

Lunch

14:30

Session 2: Productivity and economic growth

Chair: Filippo Di Mauro, European Central Bank

Productivity, misallocation and trade

Antoine Berthou*, Banque de France, CEPII
Kalina Manova, Stanford University, NBER
Charlotte Sandoz, Banque de France, Université Paris 1, Paris School of Economics

Discussant: Yusuf Emre Akgündüz, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

15:15

Coffee break and group photo

15:45

Session2: continued

The post-crisis slump in the Euro Area and the US

Robert Kollmann*, ECARES, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Université Paris-Est, CEPR
Beatrice Pataracchia, European Commission
Rafal Raciborski, European Commission
Marco Ratto, European Commission
Werner Roeger, European Commission
Lukas Vogel, European Commission

Discussant: Murat Özbilgin, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Enter the dragon: revisiting the reform period in China

Ana S. Manu*, European Central Bank
Peter McAdam, European Central Bank
Alpo Willman, University of Kent

Discussant: Ufuk Demiroğlu, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

19:00

Conference dinner

Saturday, 3 September 2016

* indicates the presenter

9:00

Session 3: Income distribution and convergence

Chair: Murat Özbilgin, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Financial deepening and income distribution inequality in the Euro Area

Donatella Baiardi, Università di Milano Bicocca
Claudio Morana*, Università di Milano Bicocca, CeRP, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis

Discussant: Filippo di Mauro, European Central Bank

Globalization, Chinese imports and skill premia in a small open economy

Selva Bahar Baziki*, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Discussant: Murat Kırdar, Boğaziҫi University

10:30

Coffee break

11:00

Session 4: Role of demographics and institutions in growth

Chair: Semih Tümen, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Does institutional proximity promote growth spillovers? A spatial panel data approach

Mahyudin Ahmad*, Universiti Teknologi MARA, University of Cambridge
Toke Aidt, University of Cambridge

Discussant: Kurmaş Akdoğan, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Spill-over effects of debt and growth in the Euro Area: evidence from a GVAR model

Bernd Kempa, University of Münster
Nazmus Sadat Khan*, University of Münster

Discussant: Ana S. Manu, European Central Bank

Demographic cycle, migration and housing investment: a causal examination

Eric Monnet*, Banque de France
Clara Wolf, Sciences Po

Discussant: Huzeyfe Torun, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

13:00

Lunch and end of conference

General information

Whether the cross-country income gap will be narrowed or not has been a long-standing matter of interest for both policymakers and academics writing on economic growth. The issue of convergence has increased in importance as a result of differing responses among economies to the post-crisis conditions. Developing a better understanding of the main mechanisms driving convergence (or non-convergence) will shed light on the potential policy directions to be followed in improving the global economy’s performance.

The annual conference, the fourth in a series jointly organised by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) and the European Central Bank (ECB), aims to take stock of the advancement in the theoretical literature and to review empirical applications that are relevant to the work of policymakers.

The organising committee, consisting of Yusuf Soner Başkaya and Semih Tümen (both CBRT), Filippo Di Mauro and Livio Stracca (both ECB), welcome contributions linking economic convergence to:

balanced and sustainable growth in the global economy, including global imbalances;
sectoral reallocation (and unconditional convergence);
total factor productivity;
the quality of institutions;
income distribution and the middle-income trap;
the ageing and demographic window;
dynamics of cross-country external imbalances.

Mr Ayhan Kose, Director of the Development Prospects Group at the World Bank, will give a keynote speech at the conference.

Please address any queries you may have to one of the following organisers:

Livio Stracca (livio.stracca@ecb.europa.eu)
Filippo Di Mauro (filippo.di_mauro@ecb.europa.eu)
Yusuf Soner Başkaya (soner.baskaya@tcmb.gov.tr)
Semih Tümen (semih.tumen@tcmb.gov.tr)