Expectations surveys

Building on the success of previous editions in 2019 and 2021, the Bank of Canada (Boc), the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (New York Fed) are organizing the third joint conference on expectations surveys, to be held on 13 and 14 October at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The aim of the conference is to bring together scholars to present their current research involving expectations surveys.

Over the past decade, researchers and central banks have started to collect survey data on expectations from consumers, economists, professional forecasters, and firms. These surveys provide insights into how economic agents form and update their expectations, the heterogeneity and biases in these expectations, and how these expectations feed into economic decisions that can have wide implications for the economy and for monetary policy. The conference program will feature two plenary keynote sessions by Francesca Molinari (Cornell University) and Orazio Attanasio (Yale University).

We invite authors to submit completed papers to gizem.kosar@ny.frb.org using the subject “Conference on Expectations Surveys” by 19 August 2022. Successful applicants will be notified by 9 September 2022.

Contributions in the following areas are of particular interest:

• Factors influencing expectations formation and updating by consumers and firms
• The effect of policy interventions on economic expectations and decisions
• How expectations shape behaviour
• How the global pandemic has influenced economic expectations and behaviour
• Methodological issues related to expectations data and surveys
• The use of expectations in econometric and structural models and substantive applications

The conference will be in-person with a hybrid option, but presenters are strongly encouraged to attend in-person. The organisers will cover reasonable travel expenses (up to $600 for domestic and $1,200 for international flights) and two nights of accommodation for one presenter per selected paper, subject to the relevant institutional rules and guidelines. Presenters are requested to stay for the entire conference.