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Alina Mika
- 21 December 2017
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2118Details
- Abstract
- We study the relationship between debt and growth in EU countries in the years 1995-2015. We investigate the debt-growth nexus in two alternative empirical set-ups: the traditional cross-county panel regressions and mean group estimations. We find evidence of a positive long-run relationship between private sector indebtedness and economic growth, and a negative relationship between public debt and long-run growth across EU countries. However, the more immediate impact of private sector debt on growth is found to be negative, and positive for the public sector debt. We find no conclusive evidence for a common debt threshold within EU countries, neither for the private nor for the public sector, but some indication of a non-linear effect of household debt.
- JEL Code
- O47 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Measurement of Economic Growth, Aggregate Productivity, Cross-Country Output Convergence
N14 : Economic History→Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics, Industrial Structure, Growth, Fluctuations→Europe: 1913?
H60 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→General
- 18 April 2017
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2046Details
- Abstract
- This study examines the home bias in trade in goods and services within the European Union. Using the newest release of the World Input Output database, available for the years 2000-2014, the effect is estimated using gravity regressions. The trade-reducing effect of borders is found to be sizeable. It is greater for trade in services than for goods, though the former declined more markedly throughout the period. The paper extends current literature by demonstrating and analysing the variation in the bias across Europe. The border effect is larger in Central and Eastern Europe than in other parts of the continent. The differences in the effect can be largely explained by the depth of a country’s integration with the European Union. The number of years passed since a country joined the EU has a significant impact on the bias. The longer a country has been in the EU, the lower its home bias, with the first years of membership having the largest (in absolute terms) effect.
- JEL Code
- F02 : International Economics→General→International Economic Order
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade