Níl an t-ábhar seo ar fáil i nGaeilge.
Jacopo Timini
- 21 October 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2992Details
- Abstract
- We study how disruptions to the supply of foreign critical inputs (FCIs) —that is, inputs primarily sourced from extra-EU countries with highly concentrated supply, advanced technology products, or which are key to the green transition —might affect value added at different levels of aggregation. Using firm-level customs and balance sheet data for Belgium, France, Italy, Slovenia and Spain, our framework allows us to assess how much geoeconomic fragmentation might affect European economies differently. Our baseline calibration suggests that a 50% reduction in imports of FCIs from China and other countries with similar geopolitical orientations would result in sizable losses of value added with significant heterogeneity across firms, sectors, regions and countries, driven by the heterogeneous exposure of firms. Our findings show that the short-term costs of supply disruptions of FCIs can be substantial, especially if firms cannot easily switch away from these inputs.
- JEL Code
- F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F50 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→General
F60 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→General
- 9 October 2024
- THE ECB BLOGChina has been an important and reliable supplier of critical inputs for European industries for decades. But how vulnerable would our companies be if that suddenly stopped? The ECB Blog estimates the potential losses in value added for manufacturers in five countries.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F43 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Economic Growth of Open Economies
- 27 March 2023
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 311Details
- Abstract
- Over the past decade, geopolitical developments – and the policy responses to these by major economies around the world – have challenged economic openness and the process of globalisation, with implications for the economic environment in which central banks operate. The return of war to Europe and the energy shock triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 are the latest in a series of episodes that have led the European Union (EU) to develop its Open Strategic Autonomy (OSA) agenda. This Report is a broad attempt to take stock of these developments from a central banking perspective. It analyses the EU’s economic interdependencies and their implications for trade and finance, with a focus on strategically important dimensions such as energy, critical raw materials, food, foreign direct investment and financial market infrastructures. Against this background, the Report discusses relevant aspects of the EU’s OSA policy agenda which extends to trade, industrial and state aid measures, as well as EU initiatives to strengthen and protect the internal market and further develop Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). The paper highlights some of the policy choices and trade-offs that emerge in this context and possible implications for the ECB’s monetary policy and other policies.
- JEL Code
- F0 : International Economics→General
F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
F30 : International Economics→International Finance→General
F4 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
F5 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
L5 : Industrial Organization→Regulation and Industrial Policy
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
- 14 October 2020
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 249Details
- Abstract
- This paper summarises the economic analyses of the potential impact of Brexit on the United Kingdom, European Union (EU) and euro area performed by members of and contributors to the Brexit Task Force, a group reporting to the International Relations Committee of the European System of Central Banks. The studies were carried out between 2017 and the initial months of 2019 and have been independently published by the authors. The aim of this Occasional Paper is to present the studies in an organic manner, highlighting common features and results.
- JEL Code
- F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F21 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Investment, Long-Term Capital Movements
F22 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Migration