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15 November 2022
THE ECB BLOG
Europe is punching below its weight in the climate-technology competition. The continent needs to facilitate risk capital markets and to invest more in research and development. This is the 4th post in a series of climate-related entries on the occasion of COP27.
26 July 2022
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2686
Details
Abstract
Fulfilling the commitments embedded in the Paris Agreement requires a climate-technologyrevolution. Patented innovation of low-carbon technologies is lower in the EU than in selectedpeers, and very heterogeneous across member states. We motivate this fact with anendogenous model of directed technical change with government policy and financialmarkets. Variations in carbon taxes, R&D investment, and venture capital investment explaina large share of the variation in green patents per capita in the data. We discuss implicationsfor policy, concluding that governments can play a catalytic role in stimulating greeninnovation while the role of central banks is limited.
JEL Code
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
G1 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets
O4 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
Q5 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics
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Discussion papers
26 July 2022
DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES - No. 19
Details
Abstract
Fulfilling the commitments embedded in the Paris Agreement requires a climate-technologyrevolution. Patented innovation of low-carbon technologies is lower in the EU than in selectedpeers, and very heterogeneous across member states. We motivate this fact with anendogenous model of directed technical change with government policy and financialmarkets. Variations in carbon taxes, R&D investment, and venture capital investment explaina large share of the variation in green patents per capita in the data. We discuss implicationsfor policy, concluding that governments can play a catalytic role in stimulating greeninnovation while the role of central banks is limited.
JEL Code
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
G1 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets
O4 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
Q5 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics
24 November 2021
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 285
Details
Abstract
Climate change has profound effects not only for societies and economies, but also for central banks’ ability to deliver price stability in the future. This paper starts by documenting why climate change matters for monetary policy: it impacts the economic variables relevant to setting the monetary policy stance, it interacts with fiscal and structural responses and it can generate dislocations in financial markets, which are impossible for monetary policy to ignore. Next, we survey several possible ways central banks can respond to climate change. These range from protective actions to more proactive measures aimed at mitigating climate change and supporting green finance and the transition to sustainable growth. We also discuss the constraints and trade-offs faced by central banks as they respond to climate risks. Finally, focusing on the specific challenges faced by inflation-targeting central banks, we consider how certain design features of this regime might interact with, and evolve in response to, the climate challenge.
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
21 September 2021
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 271
Details
Abstract
This paper analyses the implications of climate change for the conduct of monetary policy in the euro area. It first investigates macroeconomic and financial risks stemming from climate change and from policies aimed at climate mitigation and adaptation, as well as the regulatory and fiscal effects of reducing carbon emissions. In this context, it assesses the need to adapt macroeconomic models and the Eurosystem/ECB staff economic projections underlying the monetary policy decisions. It further considers the implications of climate change for the conduct of monetary policy, in particular the implications for the transmission of monetary policy, the natural rate of interest and the correct identification of shocks. Model simulations using the ECB’s New Area-Wide Model (NAWM) illustrate how the interactions of climate change, financial and fiscal fragilities could significantly restrict the ability of monetary policy to respond to standard business cycle fluctuations. The paper concludes with an analysis of a set of potential monetary policy measures to address climate risks, insofar as they are in line with the ECB’s mandate.
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
9 June 2020
THE INTERNATIONAL ROLE OF THE EURO - BOX
The international role of the euro 2020
23 September 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2019
Details
Abstract
Data on derivatives transactions have recently become available at a number of central banks, including the ECB, and have opened up new avenues for analysis. Collected as a result of reforms of the over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives market, which were primarily designed to counter systemic risk, the data have numerous applications beyond the domain of financial stability. This article presents two such applications. It demonstrates how data gathered under the European Market Infrastructure Regulation (EMIR) can be used to better understand two types of derivatives market that are of particular importance for central bank analysis, namely the interest rate derivatives and inflation-linked swap markets. For the interest rate derivatives market, the article shows how investor expectations for interest rates may be inferred through “positioning indicators” that track how a set of “informed investors” take positions in the market in anticipation of future interest rate movements. Such quantity-based indicators can complement other, more established indicators of interest rate expectations, such as forward rates or survey-based measures. For euro area inflation-linked swap markets, the article exploits the fact that EMIR data allow a first systematic look at trading activity in these markets, which can provide valuable and timely information on investors’ inflation expectations. It highlights a number of structural features of activity in these markets and discusses their possible implications for the monitoring of market-based measures of inflation compensation.
JEL Code
G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
29 May 2019
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOX
Financial Stability Review Issue 1, 2019
Details
Abstract
The Eurosystem’s asset purchase programme (APP) has contributed to a portfolio rebalancing of securities holdings within the euro area. The ECB’s asset purchases, with their largest component initiated in March 2015, have compressed the yields of securities across a wide range of asset classes. In line with the portfolio rebalancing transmission channel of monetary policy, many investors responded to these lower yields by shifting their holdings towards riskier securities with higher expected returns. Non-banks, in particular, have moved increasingly into less-liquid and lower-rated bonds as well as longer-term securities in a search for yield. To the extent that a slowdown in growth or other market or policy developments lead to an increase in term or risk premia, investors may rebalance back towards safer assets.
23 April 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2019
Details
Abstract
Over the course of 2018, euro area non-financial corporate (NFC) spreads widened notably. This box explores the factors underpinning this widening, including deteriorating corporate credit fundamentals, a weaker macroeconomic outlook, spillovers from abroad and a reassessment of global risk appetite. Most importantly, against the backdrop of the end of net asset purchases in December 2018, the box also focuses on the role that monetary policy has played.
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation