Nicht auf Deutsch verfügbar.
Martin Schmitz
Statistics
- Division
External Statistics &Sector Accounts
- Current Position
-
Senior Team Lead - Economist-Statistician
- Fields of interest
-
International Economics,Financial Economics
- Education
- 2010
Ph.D. Economics, Trinity College Dublin
- 2006
M.Sc. Economics, Trinity College Dublin
- 2005
B.Sc. Economics, University of Maastricht
- Professional experience
- 2018-
DG Statistics, European Central Bank
- 2017
DG International and European Relations, European Central Bank
- 2012-2017
DG Economics, European Central Bank
- 2011-2012
DG Statistics, European Central Bank
- 2010-2011
DG International and European Relations, European Central Bank
- 31 October 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2024Details
- Abstract
- This box presents newly released data on the activities of special-purpose entities (SPEs) in the external sector of the euro area. It shows that SPEs make a significant contribution to cross-border financial linkages. Overall, SPEs account for around a third of euro area foreign direct investment positions and more than 10% of total euro area cross-border financial linkages. Their importance varies substantially across countries. Although SPEs inflate the gross external positions of the euro area, their impact on the net international investment position is limited. The contribution made by SPEs in the euro area has declined recently from a high level amid national and global initiatives affecting the regulatory and taxation environments for multinational enterprises.
- JEL Code
- C82 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data, Data Access
F23 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→Multinational Firms, International Business
F62 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Macroeconomic Impacts
- 25 June 2024
- STATISTICS PAPER SERIES - No. 49Details
- Abstract
- The nominal effective exchange rate (EER) of a currency is an index of the trade-weighted average of its bilateral exchange rates vis-à-vis the currencies of selected trading partners, while the real EER is derived by adjusting the nominal index for relative prices or costs. The nominal EER provides a summary measure of a currency’s external value, while the real EER is the most commonly used indicator of the international price and cost competitiveness of an economy. Additionally, for all individual euro area countries, harmonised competitiveness indicators (HCIs) are published by the European Central Bank (ECB) based on the same methodology as the euro EERs. This paper describes how the calculation of the ECB’s EERs and HCIs has been enhanced to take into account in the underlying trade weights the evolution of international trade linkages and, in particular, the growing importance of trade in services. The paper includes an in-depth description of the methodology used to calculate these enhanced EERs and HCIs. In particular, it presents how to overcome the challenges arising from the inclusion of services trade, foremost in terms of data availability, with imputation and estimation techniques. Importantly, the ECB’s well-established methodology – which in particular accounts for competition faced by euro area exporters in third markets – did not have to be changed with the inclusion of services trade. Finally, the paper provides some evidence on the usefulness of the enhanced indicators for policymakers, economic analysts and the public at large.
- JEL Code
- C82 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data, Data Access
F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
F17 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Forecasting and Simulation
F30 : International Economics→International Finance→General
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
F40 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→General
- 18 June 2024
- FINANCIAL INTEGRATION AND STRUCTURE BOXFinancial Integration and Structure in the Euro Area 2024Details
- Abstract
- This box reassesses the patterns of euro area financial integration, adjusting for the role of financial centres in the euro area. Their special role involves acting as one of the euro area’s major hubs for (i) the investment fund industry, and (ii) securities issuance by affiliates of foreign companies. Looking through these dual roles of euro area financial centres provides a nuanced picture of euro area financial integration and portfolio exposures. The restatements methodology reveals three main findings namely that (i) the euro area as a whole is less financially integrated with the rest of the world (ii) at the country level Luxembourg and Ireland act as a source of portfolio diversification for the other euro area countries and (iii) the evolution of equity home bias in the euro area looks very similar to that of the United States since 1995, while euro area bond home bias declined significantly.
- JEL Code
- F3 : International Economics→International Finance
F4 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
G2 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services
G3 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance
H26 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Tax Evasion
- 7 June 2024
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 350Details
- Abstract
- The activities of multinational enterprises (MNEs) have become an increasingly important feature of the euro area economy, affecting output, trade and financial linkages. MNEs contribute to domestic output by maintaining large production facilities, offering high-paid jobs, bringing in new technologies and generating tax revenues. Following statistical changes implemented in 2015 to better capture the increasing importance of intangible investment, the economic impact of MNE activities has become much more evident in measures of intellectual property product (IPP) investment and external IPP trade flows. MNE activities, which often entail large and instantaneous transfers of IPP, are frequently highly volatile and can blur real-time assessment – and forecasting – of the business cycle, the current account and the capital stock in the euro area. Focusing on Ireland, given the strong prevalence of MNE activities in that economy and their importance for the euro area aggregate, this paper assesses the usefulness of the “modified” series for Irish non-construction investment and services imports. Using the modified series would provide a more accurate picture of the domestic dynamics of the Irish economy and enhance real-time assessment of the euro area business cycle, current account and capital stock. This paper brings insights into the unwinding of IPP shocks, which is a more straightforward exercise than seeking to anticipate the shocks themselves. The conclusions of this work underline the urgent need for more granular and internationally harmonised data on MNE activities to gain a clearer understanding of the dynamics of IPP operations and the implications for both short and long-term macroeconomic developments.
- JEL Code
- E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
F23 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→Multinational Firms, International Business
F62 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Macroeconomic Impacts
- 23 April 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2932Details
- Abstract
- We analyze, for the first time, how firms choose the currency in which they price transactions in international trade of services and investigate, using direct evidence, whether the US dollar (USD) plays a dominant role in services trade. Drawing on a new granular dataset on extra-European Union exports of Portuguese firms broken down by currency, we show that currency choices in services trade are active firm-level decisions. Firms that are larger and rely more on inputs priced in foreign currencies are less likely to use the domestic currency to export services. Importantly, we show that the USD has a dominant role as a vehicle currency in trade of services – but to a lesser extent than in trade of goods – and that this is not just due to differences in the geography of trade. An external validity test based on macro data available for Portugal and six other European countries confirms this finding. In line with predictions from recent theoretical models, our results are consistent with the lower prevalence of USD in services trade arising from a lower openness of services markets and a stronger reliance of services on domestic inputs.
- JEL Code
- F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
- 18 March 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2918Details
- Abstract
- This paper provides insights into the determinants of currency choice in cross-border bank lending, such as bilateral distance, financial and trade linkages to issuer countries of major currencies, and invoicing currency patterns. Cross-border bank lending in US dollars, and particularly in euro, is highly concentrated in a small number of countries. The UK is central in the international network of loans denominated in euro, although there are tentative signs that this role has diminished for lending to non-banks since Brexit. Offshore financial centres are pivotal for US dollars loans, reflecting, in particular, lending to non-bank financial intermediaries in the Cayman Islands, possibly as a result of regulatory and tax optimisation strategies. The empirical analysis suggests that euro-denominated loans face the “tyranny of distance”, in line with predictions of gravity models of trade, in contrast to US dollar loans. Complementarities between trade invoicing and bank lending are found for both the euro and the US dollar.
- JEL Code
- F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
F33 : International Economics→International Finance→International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
F34 : International Economics→International Finance→International Lending and Debt Problems
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 28 September 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2023Details
- Abstract
- In 2022, the euro area current account balance recorded a deficit of 0.8% of euro area GDP compared with a surplus of 2.8% of GDP in 2021. This deterioration of 3.6 percentage points is the biggest annual change in the euro area current account balance on record. This article reviews developments in the current account components. It shows that most of this deterioration is expected to be temporary as it was driven by a decline in the goods trade balance on the back of sharp increases in energy import prices. The euro area current account can therefore be expected to recover, driven by a partial rebound in the terms of trade, anticipated fiscal consolidation and largely unchanged demographic factors. However, as part of the increase in energy prices will probably persist over the medium term, the euro area current account balance is likely to stay somewhat below pre-pandemic levels.
- JEL Code
- F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
- 29 June 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 4, 2023Details
- Abstract
- This box provides an analysis of the retrenchment recorded in euro area external financial flows in 2022 – the largest since the global financial crisis – making use of new, more granular data published in the euro area balance of payments and international investment position statistics. The retrenchment was most pronounced in portfolio and foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. Euro area investors’ retrenchment in portfolio investment in 2022 was mainly driven by investment funds, while insurance corporations and pension funds offset the reversal in outflows to some extent. As regards foreign portfolio investment in the euro area in 2022, net purchases of euro area investment fund shares dried up almost completely, while foreign investors’ appetite for euro area debt securities started to return. The retrenchment in FDI mainly reflected “financialised” transactions by multinational enterprises vis-à-vis affiliated “other financial institutions” in euro area financial centres, while FDI flows to the non-financial corporate sector remained more stable.
- JEL Code
- F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
- 21 June 2023
- THE INTERNATIONAL ROLE OF THE EURO - SPECIAL FEATUREThe international role of the euro 2023Details
- JEL Code
- :
- 15 November 2022
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2750Details
- Abstract
- The growth in TARGET balances after 2009 has given rise to intense academic and public debate. Our paper offers a systematic exposition of the necessary conditions for TARGET balances to emerge and provides a clear link to monetary policy. We show that large TARGET balances can only arise with excess liquidity. The interpretation of TARGET balances therefore depends on the monetary policy context in which excess liquidity is created. We distinguish three phases of TARGET balances growth and propose some easy-to-derive metrics for policy makers and academics to assess developments in TARGET balances. We develop a comprehensive econometric framework to account for relevant factors driving TARGET balances in the different phases. We find that while financial market stress and economic imbalances were the drivers of TARGET balances during the great financial and sovereign debt crises, the implementation of Eurosystem asset purchases was the driving force since March 2015. As excess liquidity is likely to persist on account of higher demand for central bank reserves compared to the pre-crisis period, TARGET balances have the potential to remain sizeable in the future.
- JEL Code
- E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
- 10 November 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2022Details
- Abstract
- This box provides an analysis of recent developments in trade and financial linkages between the euro area and Russia as recorded in the euro area balance of payments. The euro area current account balance vis-à-vis Russia turned from a small surplus into a deficit of 0.5% of euro area GDP between the second quarter of 2021 and the second quarter of this year, thus contributing significantly to the reduction in the euro area’s current account surplus over the same period. The bilateral current account deficit vis-à-vis Russia increased on account of the rising value of nominal imports, largely of energy products, and lower exports driven by EU sanctions. Euro area financial exposures to Russia before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine were relatively limited, with foreign direct investment (FDI) being the most important component. Since the start of the war euro area holdings of Russian assets have declined, while liabilities vis-à-vis Russia have increased due to the impact of EU sanctions.
- JEL Code
- F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
- 27 September 2022
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2734Brexit, what Brexit? Euro area portfolio exposures to the United Kingdom since the Brexit referendumDetails
- Abstract
- We study euro area investors' portfolio adjustment since the Brexit referendum in terms of securities issued in the UK or denominated in pound sterling, in the context of heightened policy uncertainty surrounding the exit process of the UK from the EU. Our sector-level analysis "looks-through" holdings of investment fund shares to gauge euro area sectors' full exposures to debt securities and listed shares. Our key finding is the absence of a negative "Brexit-effect" for euro area investors, which would have rendered UK-issued and pound-denominated securities generally less attractive. Instead, we observe that euro area investors increased their absolute and relative exposures to UK-issued and pound-denominated debt securities since the Brexit referendum. The analysis also reveals an increase in the euro area's exposure to listed shares issued by UK non-financial corporations, while the exposures to shares issued by UK banks declined. These findings should be seen against the backdrop of low yields on euro area debt securities and a strong recovery in UK share prices since the Brexit referendum, which appear to have largely outweighed the uncertainties associated with Brexit.
- JEL Code
- F30 : International Economics→International Finance→General
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
- 21 September 2021
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 263Details
- Abstract
- This paper assesses how globalisation has shaped the economic environment in which the ECB operates and discusses whether this warrants adjustments to the monetary policy strategy. The paper first looks at how trade and financial integration have evolved since the last strategy review in 2003. It then examines the effects of these developments on global productivity growth, the natural interest rate (r*), inflation trends and monetary transmission. While trade globalisation initially boosted productivity growth, this effect may be waning as trade integration slows and market contestability promotes a winner-takes-all environment. The impact of globalisation on r* has been ambiguous: downward pressures, fuelled by global demand for safe assets and an increase in the propensity to save against a background of rising inequality, are counteracted by upward pressures, from the boost to global productivity associated with greater trade integration. Headline inflation rates have become more synchronised globally, largely because commodity prices are increasingly determined by global factors. Meanwhile, core inflation rates show a lower degree of commonality. Globalisation has made a rather modest contribution to the synchronised fall in trend inflation across countries and contributed only moderately to the reduction in the responsiveness of inflation to changes in activity. Regarding monetary transmission, globalisation has made the role of the exchange rate more complex by introducing new mechanisms through which it affects financial conditions, real activity and price dynamics. Against the background of this discussion, the paper then examines the implications for the ECB’s monetary policy strategy. In doing so, it asks two questions. How is the ECB’s economic and monetary analysis affected by globalisation? And how does globalisation influence the choice of the ECB’s monetary policy objective and instruments? ...
- JEL Code
- E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
F44 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Business Cycles
F62 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Macroeconomic Impacts
F65 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Finance
- 21 June 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 4, 2021Details
- Abstract
- Amid elevated volatility in economic activity and international trade due to the pandemic, the overall euro area current account surplus narrowed only slightly in 2020 compared with 2019, from 2.3% to 2.2% of GDP. However, external transactions in the current account contracted sharply during the first half of the year, following the outbreak of the pandemic and the introduction of measures to contain its spread. The economic repercussions of the pandemic were particularly visible in the trade in services balance, where travel restrictions led to a sharp reduction in the euro area surplus on travel services.
- JEL Code
- F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
- 19 February 2021
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2526Details
- Abstract
- We study the impact of the COVID-19 shock on the portfolio exposures of euro area investors. The analysis “looks-through” holdings of investment fund shares to first gauge euro area investors' full exposures to global debt securities and listed shares by sector at end-2019 and to subsequently analyse the portfolio shifts in the first and second quarters of 2020. We show important heterogeneous patterns across asset classes and sectors, but also across euro area less and more vulnerable countries. In particular, we find a broad-based rebalancing towards domestic sovereign debt at the expense of extra-euro area sovereigns, consistent with heightened home bias. These patterns were strongly driven by indirect holdings – via investment funds – especially for insurance companies and pension funds, but levelled off in the second quarter. On the contrary, for listed shares we find that euro area investors rebalanced away from domestic towards extra-euro area securities in both the first and the second quarter, which may be associated with better relative foreign stock market performance. Many of these shifts were only due to indirect holdings, corroborating the importance of investment funds in assessing investors' exposures via securities, in particular in times of large shocks. We also confirm the important intermediation role played by investment funds in an analysis focusing on the large-scale portfolio rebalancing observed between 2015 and 2017 during the ECB's Asset Purchase Programme.
- JEL Code
- F30 : International Economics→International Finance→General
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
- 24 September 2020
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2020Details
- Abstract
- This box introduces the ECB’s enhanced effective exchange rates (EERs) and harmonised competitiveness indicators (HCIs). It presents the new methodology for calculating the underlying weighting scheme, which is based not solely on trade in manufactured goods but now also on trade in services. The inclusion of services trade reflects its growing importance in the light of globalisation and digitalisation and has become possible thanks to increased availability of data.
- JEL Code
- F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
F30 : International Economics→International Finance→General
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
F40 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→General
- 27 May 2020
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2417Details
- Abstract
- This paper provides a dataset on the currency composition of the international investment position for a group of 50 countries for the period 1990-2017. It improves available data based on estimates by incorporating actual data reported by statistical authorities and refining estimation methods. The paper illustrates current and new uses of these data, with particular focus on the evolution of currency exposures of cross-border positions.
- JEL Code
- F20 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→General
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
- 6 April 2020
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2388Details
- Abstract
- We analyse euro area investors' portfolio rebalancing during the ECB's Asset Purchase Programme at the security level. Based on net transactions of domestic and foreign securities, we observe euro area sectors' capital flows into individual securities, cleaned from valuation effects. Our empirical analysis – which accounts for security-level characteristics – shows that euro area investors (in particular investment funds and households) actively rebalanced away from securities targeted under the Public Sector Purchase Programme and other euro-denominated debt securities, towards foreign debt instruments, including ‘closest substitutes’, i.e. certain sovereign debt securities issued by non-euro area advanced countries. This rebalancing was particularly strong during the first six quarters of the programme. Our analysis also reveals marked differences across sectors as well as country groups within the euro area, suggesting that quantitative easing has induced heterogeneous portfolio shifts.
- JEL Code
- F21 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Investment, Long-Term Capital Movements
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
- 24 March 2020
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 2, 2020Details
- Abstract
- This article analyses how the operations of large multinational enterprises (MNEs) affect the external account of the euro area and, in general, financial centres. The increased ease of moving intangible assets, profits and headquarters across borders poses challenges to the current framework of international statistics and economic analysis. First, the article shows how MNE operations are recorded in cross-border statistics, as well as the challenges in measuring such data. Second, the article highlights evidence of the impact that MNEs have on the external account of the euro area – this is most evident in current account balances and foreign direct investment in euro area financial centres, often involving special-purpose entities (SPEs). Third, the article looks at the tendency of financial centres to report current account surpluses that may be tentatively attributed, in part, to the activity of MNEs. Multilateral initiatives could help to improve the transparency of MNE operations and ensure an exchange of information across borders for tax and statistical purposes.
- JEL Code
- F21 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Investment, Long-Term Capital Movements
F23 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→Multinational Firms, International Business
F3 : International Economics→International Finance
- 20 June 2019
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 4, 2019Details
- Abstract
- This box analyses recent developments in the financial account of the euro area balance of payments. In 2018, the euro area recorded net financial outflows of 2.7% of GDP amid an overall decline in gross cross-border financial flows. Portfolio investment, particularly in debt securities, continued to be affected by the Eurosystem’s asset purchase programme. At the same time, the euro area recorded a retrenchment in foreign direct investment flows, mainly reflecting transactions vis-à-vis the United States, most likely linked to the US tax reform.
- JEL Code
- F21 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Investment, Long-Term Capital Movements
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
- 13 June 2019
- THE INTERNATIONAL ROLE OF THE EURO - SPECIAL FEATUREThe international role of the euro 2019
- 30 April 2019
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 221Details
- Abstract
- The studies summarised in this paper focus on the economic implications of euro area firms’ participation in global value chains (GVCs). They show how, and to what extent, a large set of economic variables and inter-linkages have been affected by international production sharing. The core conclusion is that GVC participation has major implications for the euro area economy. Consequently, there is a case for making adjustments to standard macroeconomic analysis and forecasting for the euro area, taking due account of data availability and constraints.
- JEL Code
- F6 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization
F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F16 : International Economics→Trade→Trade and Labor Market Interactions
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
- 25 March 2019
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2252Details
- Abstract
- Does distance matter for the volatility of international real and financial transactions? We show that it does, in addition to its well-established relevance for the level of trade. A simple model of trade with endogenous markups shows that demand shocks have a larger impact on trade between more distant countries. We test this implication in two steps, relying on a broad range of real and financial transactions measures, as well as several different metrics of distance (physical, linguistic, and internet). We first show that during the Great Trade Collapse of 2007-09 international transactions fell more between countries that are more distant along the various metrics, and find that the different distance measures magnify each other’s respective impacts. We then focus on a longer panel analysis of trade in goods and show that trade is more volatile between more distant countries, with again a magnification pattern across metrics of distance.
- JEL Code
- F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
F30 : International Economics→International Finance→General
- 13 February 2019
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2238Details
- Abstract
- Both academic researchers and policymakers posit a unique role for the US in the inter-national financial system. This paper investigates the characteristics and determinants of US cross-border financial flows and examines how these contrast with those of the rest of the world. We analyse the relative importance of US, country-specific, and global variables as determinants of aggregate and bilateral US financial flows and as determinants of country-level cross-border financial flows excluding those directly involving the US. Our results indicate that variation in US variables – notably the VIX and US dollar exchange rate – has a quantitatively important influence on global financial flows, but mostly via US cross-border flows. Global and national risk indicators perform better in explaining “rest of the world” flows. Moreover, we find that the correlation between US and rest of the world flows peaks in periods of elevated uncertainty. We interpret our findings as evidence for the existence of a global financial cycle, only some of which is driven by policies and events in the US.
- JEL Code
- F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F21 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Investment, Long-Term Capital Movements
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
- 8 November 2018
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2018Details
- Abstract
- The composition of the euro area current account balance in terms of its geographical counterparts has been fairly stable in recent years, with the euro area's most important trading partners accounting for the largest part of the bilateral surpluses and deficits. The bulk of the increase in the euro area's current account surplus since 2013 was accounted for by improvements vis-à-vis the euro area's three largest trading partners. The largest changes in the geographical breakdown of the euro area current account balances were recorded for trade in goods and primary income.
- JEL Code
- F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
- 10 May 2018
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2018Details
- Abstract
- The euro area's international investment position (i.i.p.) improved further in 2017. The recent improvement in the euro area's net i.i.p. was mainly driven by net financial transactions – reflecting the euro area’s current account surplus – and developments in asset prices. As regards financial instruments, the improvement in the euro area's net i.i.p. was mainly due to a shift in portfolio debt securities from a net liability to a net asset position.
- JEL Code
- F21 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Investment, Long-Term Capital Movements
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
- 26 February 2018
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2130Details
- Abstract
- This paper examines the drivers of the retrenchment in cross-border banking in the European Union (EU) since the global financial crisis, which stands out in international comparison as banks located in the euro area and in the rest of the EU reduced their cross-border claims by around 25%. Particularly striking is the sharp and sustained reduction in intra-EU claims, especially in the form of deleveraging from cross-border interbank loans. Examining a wide range of possible determinants, we identify high non-performing loans as an important impediment to cross-border lending after the crisis, highlighting the spillovers from national banking sector conditions across the EU. We also find evidence that prudential policies can entail spillovers via cross-border banking in the EU, albeit with heterogeneity across instruments in terms of direction, magnitude and significance. Our results do not point to a major role of newly introduced bank levies in explaining cross-border banking developments.
- JEL Code
- F21 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Investment, Long-Term Capital Movements
F30 : International Economics→International Finance→General
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 22 December 2017
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2017
- 29 November 2017
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - ARTICLEFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2017Details
- Abstract
- This special feature examines the potential drivers of the post-crisis retrenchment in cross-border banking in the euro area, which stands out in international comparison. Examining a wide range of possible determinants of this phenomenon, it establishes a significant link between deteriorating asset quality and the retrenchment in cross-border banking. Conversely, tighter prudential policies and the introduction of bank levies do not contribute to explaining the reduction in cross-border banking activity. Therefore, tackling the persistent asset quality problems, along with the completion of the banking union, would seem to be pivotal to reaping the potential benefits of cross-border banking within the euro area in terms of risk diversification and risk-sharing.
- JEL Code
- G00 : Financial Economics→General→General
- 7 November 2017
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2108Details
- Abstract
- Building upon a Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) model, estimated at a quarterly frequency since 1999 on a broad sample of 57 countries, this paper assesses whether both the size and the persistence of real effective exchange rate misalignments from the levels implied by economic fundamentals are affected by the adoption of a single currency. While real misalignments are found to be smaller in the euro area than in its main trading partners, they are also more persistent, although the reactivity of real exchange rates to past misalignments increased, and therefore the persistence decreased, after the global financial crisis. In the absence of the nominal adjustment channel, an improvement in the quality of regulation and institutions is found to reduce the persistence of real exchange rate misalignments, plausibly by removing real rigidities.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
F00 : International Economics→General→General
- 15 September 2017
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 196Details
- Abstract
- TARGET balances have risen during the period of the Eurosystem’s asset purchase programme (APP). The APP gives rise to substantial cross-border flows of reserves at the time of asset purchases and beyond, reflecting the interaction of decentralised monetary policy implementation and the integrated euro area financial structure. This financial structure, in which only a handful of locations act as gateways between the euro area and the rest of the world, leads to rising TARGET balances at the time of APP purchases and the persistence of TARGET balances in the context of subsequent portfolio rebalancing. TARGET balances per se are not necessarily an indicator of stress in bank funding markets, financial market fragmentation or unsustainable balance of payments developments.
- JEL Code
- E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G02 : Financial Economics→General→Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
- 12 June 2017
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2074Details
- Abstract
- In light of persistently large net foreign liability NFL) positions in several euro area countries, we analyse 138 episodes of sizeable NFL reductions for a broad sample of advanced and emerging economies. We provide stylised facts on the channels through which NFLs were reduced and estimate factors which make episodes ‘stable’, i.e. sustained over the medium term. Our findings show that while GDP growth and valuation effects contribute most to NFL reductions overall, stable reduction episodes also require positive transaction effects (i.e. current account surpluses), in particular in advanced economies. Considering the different components of a country’s external balance sheet, we observe that reduction episodes were almost exclusively driven by a decline in gross external liabilities in emerging economies, while in advanced economies also gross external asset accumulation contributed significantly, in particular in stable episodes. Our econometric analysis shows that NFL reductions are more likely to be sustained if a country records strong average real GDP growth during an episode and exits the episode with a larger current account surplus. Moreover, we find evidence that nominal effective exchange rate depreciation during an episode is helpful for achieving episode stability in the short run, while IMF programmes and sovereign debt restructurings also contribute to longer term stability.
- JEL Code
- F21 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Investment, Long-Term Capital Movements
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F34 : International Economics→International Finance→International Lending and Debt Problems
- 30 August 2016
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1952Details
- Abstract
- This paper highlights a recent
- JEL Code
- F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F21 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Investment, Long-Term Capital Movements
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
- 25 January 2016
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1879Details
- Abstract
- This paper analyses international patterns of bilateral portfolio equity and debt investment in a gravity model framework. We contribute to the literature by exploring the role of virtual proximity
- JEL Code
- F12 : International Economics→Trade→Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies, Fragmentation
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
Z10 : Other Special Topics→Cultural Economics, Economic Sociology, Economic Anthropology→General
- 9 July 2015
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1826Details
- Abstract
- Audiovisual services such as music and movies in digital formats have gained substantial importance over the last decade. This paper analyses audiovisual services in a gravity model framework. In particular, we explore the role of virtual proximity - a new proxy for cultural proximity based on bilateral hyperlinks and bilateral website visits between countries - and find that
- JEL Code
- F12 : International Economics→Trade→Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies, Fragmentation
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
Z10 : Other Special Topics→Cultural Economics, Economic Sociology, Economic Anthropology→General
- 11 July 2012
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1451Details
- Abstract
- In light of rapidly increasing foreign equity liability positions of emerging market economies, we test for a necessary condition of international risk sharing, namely for systematic patterns between idiosyncratic output fluctuations and financial market developments. Panel analysis of 22 emerging market economies shows strong evidence for pro-cyclicality of capital gains on domestic stock markets both over short and medium term horizons. This implies that domestic output fluctuations can be hedged through cross-border ownership of financial markets.
- JEL Code
- F21 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Investment, Long-Term Capital Movements
F30 : International Economics→International Finance→General
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
- 28 June 2012
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 134Details
- Abstract
- This paper describes in detail the methodology currently used by the European Central Bank (ECB) to determine the nominal and real effective exchange rate indices of the euro. Building on the work of Buldorini et al. (2002), it shows how the ECB's techniques for calculating effective exchange rates have been updated over time and explains the related theoretical foundations. In particular, the paper discusses the use and development of trade weights based on trade in manufactured goods (taking account of third market effects), the trading partners selected, and the choice of deflators for constructing the real effective exchange rate indices. In addition, it presents evidence on exchange rate and competitiveness developments for both the euro area as a whole and individual Member States. While the growing importance of China is reflected in the updated trade weights of euro effective exchange rates, it appears that the increasing integration of the euro area with other European economies accounts for the largest variation in trade weights. The US dollar, an anchor currency for a number of large emerging markets, continues to play an important role for the effective exchange rate of the euro and euro area competitiveness. Overall, euro area competitiveness has improved slightly since the introduction of the single currency, despite significant heterogeneity within the euro area.
- JEL Code
- F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
F30 : International Economics→International Finance→General
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
F40 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→General
- 20 April 2011
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1330Details
- Abstract
- This paper shows that, controlling for standard determinants of net external positions, financially-remote countries exhibit more positive net external positions. This finding is found to be stronger for less advanced countries, hinting at external funding problems for more remote countries. Being located near financially very open countries, being in currency unions with creditor countries, or being highly integrated through financial and trade linkages with a ‘core’ country facilitates net external borrowing. Consequently, evidence is found for an important role of geographic and bilateral factors for a country’s net external wealth.
- JEL Code
- F21 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Investment, Long-Term Capital Movements
F34 : International Economics→International Finance→International Lending and Debt Problems
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
- 30 September 2008
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 938Details
- Abstract
- Global financial integration unlocks a huge potential for international risk sharing. We examine the degree to which international equity holdings act as a risk sharing device in industrial and emerging economies. We split equity returns into investment income (dividend distribution) and capital gains to investigate which of the two channels delivers the largest potential for risk sharing. Our evidence suggests that net capital gains are a more potent channel of risk sharing. They behave in a countercyclical way, that is they tend to be positive (negative) when the domestic economy is growing more slowly (rapidly) than the rest of the world. Countries with more countercyclical net capital gains experience improved consumption risk sharing. The empirical analysis furthermore suggests that these risk sharing properties of net capital gains have increased through time, in particular in the 1990s and early-2000s, on the back of a declining equity home bias and financial market deepening.
- JEL Code
- F21 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Investment, Long-Term Capital Movements
F30 : International Economics→International Finance→General
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
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