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2011 Q4

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2011 Q4 inflation forecasts
  2011 2012 2013 Sep. 2012 Sep. 2013 2016
Mean point estimate 2.6 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.8 2.0
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3
Number of replies 64 63 52 52 43 51
Probability distributions 2011 2012 2013 Sep. 2012 Sep. 2013 2016
<-1.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.20.2
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.30.3
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.0 0.4 0.5 1.0 0.80.6
0.0 to 0.4% 0.1 1.9 1.4 3.3 2.01.5
0.5 to 0.9% 0.3 6.5 5.6 10.1 6.75.2
1.0 to 1.4% 1.2 19.1 16.2 20.5 17.314.2
1.5 to 1.9% 3.2 36.4 34.2 32.3 30.930.5
2.0 to 2.4% 17.0 23.9 27.7 20.7 25.426.9
2.5 to 2.9% 69.4 8.5 10.3 8.4 12.013.1
3.0 to 3.4% 7.2 2.1 2.8 2.3 3.25.3
3.5 to 3.9% 1.4 0.7 0.9 0.7 1.01.7
>4.0% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.20.5
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2011 Q4 real GDP growth forecasts
  2011 2012 2013 2012 Q2 2013 Q2 2016
Mean point estimate 1.6 0.8 1.6 0.7 1.5 1.8
Standard deviation 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3
Number of replies 64 63 53 51 42 49
Probability distributions 2011 2012 2013 2012 Q2 2013 Q2 2016
<-1.0% 0.0 1.7 0.6 1.8 0.60.2
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.1 2.5 0.8 3.3 0.90.5
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.3 7.1 2.2 10.0 2.61.2
0.0 to 0.4% 0.8 16.2 6.1 19.6 6.83.7
0.5 to 0.9% 2.8 27.6 13.6 26.0 15.98.7
1.0 to 1.4% 23.2 26.7 26.3 21.6 24.918.5
1.5 to 1.9% 60.7 11.8 27.5 10.9 24.329.3
2.0 to 2.4% 10.0 4.4 14.2 5.0 14.622.6
2.5 to 2.9% 1.5 1.4 5.6 1.4 5.99.7
3.0 to 3.4% 0.4 0.4 2.0 0.3 2.53.7
3.5 to 3.9% 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.0 0.91.4
>4.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.20.5
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2011 Q4 unemployment rate forecasts
  2011 2012 2013 Aug. 2012 Aug. 2013 2016
Mean point estimate 10.0 10.0 9.7 10.0 9.7 8.5
Standard deviation 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.9
Number of replies 59 59 50 46 41 45
Probability distributions 2011 2012 2013 Aug. 2012 Aug. 2013 2016
<6.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01.1
6.5 to 6.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.23.1
7.0 to 7.4% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.67.0
7.5 to 7.9% 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.3 1.512.2
8.0 to 8.4% 0.1 0.7 2.5 0.9 3.619.0
8.5 to 8.9% 0.5 2.7 9.2 3.0 10.420.2
9.0 to 9.4% 3.3 10.6 21.0 13.8 19.114.3
9.5 to 9.9% 32.6 31.8 28.1 32.8 26.29.9
10.0 to 10.4% 56.3 35.2 23.0 30.4 20.85.3
10.5 to 10.9% 5.5 12.9 7.9 12.0 8.43.0
11.0 to 11.4% 1.2 4.2 3.2 4.4 4.22.0
11.5 to 11.9% 0.4 1.2 1.7 1.4 2.31.4
12.0 to 12.4% 0.1 0.3 1.1 0.5 1.30.8
12.5 to 12.9% 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.70.5
13.0 to 13.4% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.40.3
13.5 to 13.9% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.20.0
14.0 to 14.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0