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Marcel Tirpák

International & European Relations

Division

External Developments

Current Position

Lead Economist

Fields of interest

International Economics,Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics,Financial Economics

Email

marcel.tirpak@ecb.europa.eu

Education
2001-2006

PhD in Finance, University of Economics in Bratislava, Slovakia

2004-2005

Advanced Studies Program in International Economic Policy Research, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Germany

1996-2001

MSc in Economics, University of Economics in Bratislava, Slovakia

Professional experience
2020-

Lead Economist - External Developments Division, Directorate General International & European Relations, European Central Bank

2020-2020

Principal Economist - External Developments Division, Directorate General International & European Relations, European Central Bank

2016-2019

Senior Economist - External Developments Division, Directorate General International & European Relations, European Central Bank

2008-2016

Economist - EU Countries Division, Directorate General Economics, European Central Bank

2006-2008

Economist - Regional Office for Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe, International Monetary Fund

2005-2006

Economist and Adviser to Deputy Governor - Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia

8 August 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2973
Details
Abstract
Monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve System in the US are widely recognised to have spillover effects on the rest of the world. In this paper, we focus on the asymmetric effects of US monetary policy shocks on macro-financial outcomes in emerging market economies (EMEs). We shed light on how domestic factors shape external monetary policy spillover effects using indicators on the macro-financial vulnerabilities and monetary policy stances of EMEs. We find that a surprise tightening of monetary policy in the US leads to an immediate tightening of financial conditions which leads to a decline in activity and prices in EMEs over one year. Importantly, these effects are amplified in periods of high vulnerabilities and attenuated when EMEs follow a prudent monetary policy stance. Our findings help explain the greater resilience of many EMEs to the Fed’s post-COVID-19 tightening cycle, and highlight the benefits of the broad improvements of monetary policy frameworks in these countries.
JEL Code
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
25 April 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2024
Details
Abstract
Headline and core inflation levels and momentum dynamics in the euro area are currently somewhat weaker than in the United States, reflecting buoyant rent inflation and consumption growth in the United States but also the different cyclical positions of the two economies. Core inflation remains elevated overall in both economic areas, due notably to high levels of services inflation. At the same time, goods inflation has declined considerably, in line with the normalisation of disrupted supply chains at the global level and lower commodity prices. Labour costs started moderating earlier in the United States, with euro area wage growth peaking later and productivity growth being muted by cyclical and structural factors.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
30 March 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2023
Details
Abstract
This box studies the impact that the Federal Reserve’s tightening of monetary policy has on emerging market economies (EMEs) and analyses the factors shaping those spillovers. We use a local projections empirical framework to examine the ways in which EMEs’ macroeconomic and macro-financial variables respond to US monetary policy shocks identified at high frequency. In line with academic literature, our baseline results show that a surprise tightening of US monetary policy is associated with immediate tightening of EMEs’ financial conditions, after which industrial production and inflation decline, with that effect peaking after around 18 months. We find that heterogeneity across EMEs is shaped by macro-financial vulnerabilities and monetary policy actions at the national level: domestic macro-financial vulnerabilities clearly matter, amplifying EMEs’ sensitivity to US monetary policy shocks, while maintaining a prudent monetary policy stance helps EMEs to mitigate spillovers from US monetary policy.
JEL Code
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
16 February 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2023
Details
Abstract
This box updates the analysis published in April 2022 that reviewed the Eurosystem and ECB staff inflation projections published since the start of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The accuracy of short-term inflation projections made by Eurosystem and ECB staff deteriorated after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. However, projection accuracy improved in the final quarter of 2022. Errors related to conditioning assumptions for energy commodity prices and the pass-through of those prices to consumer prices (complicated by the uncertain impact of fiscal policy measures) continue to account for a significant albeit declining share of the total staff inflation projection errors. The remaining errors are likely to relate to the impact of global supply chain bottlenecks and reopening effects following the pandemic. In addition, the exceptional size of commodity price shocks may have led to a much faster pass-through, while the high inflationary environment may have enabled easier repricing and required faster resetting of prices than had been observed in the past. In comparative terms, other international institutions and private forecasters have under-predicted short-term euro area inflation to a similar extent. Eurosystem and ECB staff are continuing to re-evaluate their models to further improve the accuracy of their projection techniques and to provide additional analyses that can inform projections in times of high uncertainty.
JEL Code
J2 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor
28 April 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box reviews the large errors made throughout 2021 and the first quarter of 2022 in Eurosystem and ECB staff inflation projections. Errors in conditioning assumptions, notably due to unexpected energy price increases, are estimated to explain around three-quarters of these errors. Such errors are inherent to the nature of Eurosystem and ECB staff projections, which are conditioned on a set of assumptions, mainly stemming from market-based information including on energy prices. Supply bottlenecks being more persistent than expected, the recovery in economic activity being swifter than predicted, and the transmission of the energy price shock possibly being stronger than usual also played a role, and these factors likely explain a large portion of the errors in projecting HICP inflation excluding energy and food. A comparison with peer institutions shows that large inflation errors were widespread, not only across forecasters but also across economies. This emphasises the predominant role of global factors in a context of steep commodity price increases, especially for energy. While Eurosystem and ECB staff take all available information into account and continuously refine the models used in their projections, inflation developments are likely to remain challenging to forecast in the near term due to the volatile price movements in energy commodities, the uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine and reopening effects following the removal of pandemic-related restrictions. In this context, complementing the Eurosystem and ECB staff baseline projections with scenario and sensitivity analyses help provide a richer representation of the inflation outlook.
JEL Code
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
21 September 2021
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 264
Details
Abstract
This paper summarises the findings of the Eurosystem’s Expert Group on Inflation Expectations (EGIE), which was one of the 13 work streams conducting analysis that fed into the ECB’s monetary policy strategy review. The EGIE was tasked with (i) reviewing the nature and behaviour of inflation expectations, with a focus on the degree of anchoring, and (ii) exploring the role that measures of expectations can play in forecasting inflation. While it is households’ and firms’ inflation expectations that ultimately matter in the expectations channel, data limitations have meant that in practice the focus of analysis has been on surveys of professional forecasters and on market-based indicators. Regarding the anchoring of inflation expectations, this paper considers a number of metrics: the level of inflation expectations, the responsiveness of longer-term inflation expectations to shorter-term developments, and the degree of uncertainty. Different metrics can provide conflicting signals about the scale and timing of potential unanchoring, which underscores the importance of considering all of them. Overall, however, these metrics suggest that in the period since the global financial and European debt crises, longer-term inflation expectations in the euro area have become less well anchored. Regarding the role measures of inflation expectations can play in forecasting inflation, this paper finds that they are indicative for future inflationary developments. When it comes to their predictive power, both market-based and survey-based measures are found to be more accurate than statistical benchmarks, but do not systematically outperform each other. Beyond their role as standalone forecasts, inflation expectations bring forecast gains when included in forecasting models and can also inform scenario and risk analysis in projection exercises performed using structural models. ...
JEL Code
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
4 February 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2021
Details
Abstract
This box studies the relative impact on inflation of pandemic-induced demand and supply constraints for key advanced economies outside the euro area by using granular data on consumption expenditures and prices and a structural Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) framework. It finds that during the initial phase of the pandemic, consumer price inflation was driven more by demand-sensitive components and less by supply-sensitive ones. The structural analysis confirms a dominant role for demand shocks in the pandemic. It concludes that the impact of pandemic-related supply constraints on inflation appears limited to date. Yet, more granular analysis is needed to assess the consequences of the pandemic for the drivers of inflation.
JEL Code
C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
O11 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O40 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→General
25 April 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2019
Details
Abstract
This box reviews basic characteristics of the Asian tech sector and shows that it has played an important role in the recent weakness in China’s trade. It also suggests that the trend in the global tech cycle associated with weaker trade in Asia may be bottoming out.
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F44 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Business Cycles
26 February 2018
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2130
Details
Abstract
This paper examines the drivers of the retrenchment in cross-border banking in the European Union (EU) since the global financial crisis, which stands out in international comparison as banks located in the euro area and in the rest of the EU reduced their cross-border claims by around 25%. Particularly striking is the sharp and sustained reduction in intra-EU claims, especially in the form of deleveraging from cross-border interbank loans. Examining a wide range of possible determinants, we identify high non-performing loans as an important impediment to cross-border lending after the crisis, highlighting the spillovers from national banking sector conditions across the EU. We also find evidence that prudential policies can entail spillovers via cross-border banking in the EU, albeit with heterogeneity across instruments in terms of direction, magnitude and significance. Our results do not point to a major role of newly introduced bank levies in explaining cross-border banking developments.
JEL Code
F21 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Investment, Long-Term Capital Movements
F30 : International Economics→International Finance→General
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
29 November 2017
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - ARTICLE
Financial Stability Review Issue 2, 2017
Details
Abstract
This special feature examines the potential drivers of the post-crisis retrenchment in cross-border banking in the euro area, which stands out in international comparison. Examining a wide range of possible determinants of this phenomenon, it establishes a significant link between deteriorating asset quality and the retrenchment in cross-border banking. Conversely, tighter prudential policies and the introduction of bank levies do not contribute to explaining the reduction in cross-border banking activity. Therefore, tackling the persistent asset quality problems, along with the completion of the banking union, would seem to be pivotal to reaping the potential benefits of cross-border banking within the euro area in terms of risk diversification and risk-sharing.
JEL Code
G00 : Financial Economics→General→General
12 May 2017
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2060
Details
Abstract
We show that traditional gravity variables play a significant role in explaining trade flows related to global value chain participation We find evidence that cooperation costs – measured by linguistic and geographical proximity – are more relevant for trade that reflects cross-border production sharing. Applying an augmented gravity model framework to a newly-constructed dataset we find a positive association between bilateral FDI stock and both gross bilateral trade and the bilateral import-content of exports. We confirm this finding using an empirical case study on central and eastern European countries, which from a global perspective stand out both in terms of degree of global value chain-participation and size of inward FDI stock. Overall, we show that foreign investors play an active role in shaping host economies' export structure and their participation in international production networks. Policies that attract foreign direct investment would therefore constitute an indirect way to deepen a GVC-participation.
JEL Code
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F21 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Investment, Long-Term Capital Movements
L22 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior→Firm Organization and Market Structure
25 November 2015
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1869
Details
Abstract
Using event-study techniques we investigate the presence and the magnitude of spillovers from the ECB
JEL Code
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
2019
Review of World Economics
  • Emter, L., Schmitz, M. and Tirpák, M.
2017
Comparative Economic Studies
  • Buelens, C. and Tirpák, M.
2009
Czech Journal of Economics and Finance
  • Rosenberg, C. and Tirpák, M.