Julia Doleschel
- 10 January 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2022Details
- Abstract
- Headline inflation has increased sharply in the euro area and in the United States since the start of 2021. But there are major differences between inflation developments in these two economies. In particular, energy inflation has been much higher in the euro area – leading to higher headline inflation than in the United States in recent months. As the euro area is significantly more dependent on energy imports than the United States, the rise in energy prices constitutes a strong adverse terms-of-trade shock to euro area income. Amid the resulting relatively slower recovery from the pandemic in the euro area, the contribution of demand to core inflation has increased more gradually and later in the euro area than in the United States. In addition, the short-term outlook for economic growth is weaker in the euro area than in the United States and the US labour market is tighter, implying a relatively smaller impetus from economic activity and the labour market to inflation in the euro area. Looking ahead, professional forecasters expect inflation to be somewhat more persistent in the United States than in the euro area.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
F4 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
N10 : Economic History→Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics, Industrial Structure, Growth, Fluctuations→General, International, or Comparative
J3 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
- 4 August 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 5, 2022Details
- Abstract
- In the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, war-related disruptions and sanctions led to a sharp decline in trade flows with Russia. This box takes stock of recent and high frequency trade data to track flows of energy and agri-food commodities. It finds that Russia’s oil exports recovered from the post-invasion lows as some diversion of flows from sanctioning countries to Asia took place, whereas pipeline gas and agri-food commodity exports have significantly declined. The box provides an empirical assessment of the effects of the first round of sanctions in March 2022, which are estimated to have reduced Russian imports by about 15%.
- JEL Code
- F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F40 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→General
B40 : History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches→Economic Methodology→General
- 10 November 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2021Details
- Abstract
- This box reviews recent data for evidence of scarring effects stemming from the coronavirus (COVID-19) shock on the global economy (excluding the euro area). Taking a production function approach perspective, it analyses recent data relevant for determining the evolution of potential output and compares them with developments in the aftermath of the Great Recession. The stylised facts suggest that the level of global potential output has declined during the pandemic, albeit less than during the Great Recession. This decline can mostly be attributed to temporary factors, although more lasting damage may occur if people remain out of work for longer, loose their skills or become long-term unemployed.
- JEL Code
- E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital