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Expectations Surveys, Central Banks and the Economy

5th Joint BoC - ECB - NY Fed Conference

1 and 2 October 2024
Frankfurt am Main

Building on the success of the previous editions, the Bank of Canada, the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York are organising the fifth joint conference on expectations surveys. The aim of the conference is to bring together scholars to present their current research involving expectations surveys.

Speakers

PHOTOS

High-quality images of the conference are available via Flickr.

Live webstream

Programme

* Indicates the presenter

Tuesday, 1 October 2024
08:30

Registration and coffee

09:00

Welcome speech

Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB

Session 1 – Information frictions and central bank communication

Session chair: Geoff Kenny, European Central Bank

9:15

Show and Tell: The Effects of Seeing, Hearing and Perceiving Central Bank Messages

  • Michelle Alexopoulos, University of Toronto
  • Xinfen Han, Bank of Canada
  • Xu Zhang*, Bank of Canada
9:45

What Can Measured Beliefs Tell Us about Monetary Non-Neutrality?

  • Hassan Afrouzi, Columbia University
  • Joel Flynn, Yale University
  • Choongryul Yang*, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
10:15

Do Firm Expectations Respond to Monetary Policy Announcements?

  • Federico Di Pace, Bank of England
  • Giacomo Mangiante*, Banca d’Italia
  • Riccardo Maria Masolo, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore 
10:45

Coffee break

Session 2 – Beliefs, trading and financial markets

Session chair: Patrick Sabourin, Bank of Canada

11:00

Mental Models of the Stock Market

  • Peter Andre, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research
  • Philipp Schirmer*, University of Bonn
  • Johannes Wohlfart, University of Cologne
11:30

The Impact of Beliefs on Credit Markets: Evidence from Rating Agencies

  • Gregory Weitzner, McGill University
  • Chen Wang*, University of Notre Dame
12:00

Inflation and Trading

  • Philip Schnorpfeil, Goethe University Frankfurt
  • Michael Weber*, University of Chicago
  • Andreas Hackethal, Goethe University Frankfurt
12:30

Buffet lunch

Session 3 – Firms, investment decisions and climate

Session chair: Ursel Baumann, European Central Bank

14:00

The Speed of Firm Response to Inflation

  • Ivan Yotzov*, Bank of England
  • Nicholas Bloom, Stanford University
  • Philip Bunn, Bank of England
  • Paul Mizen, King's College
  • Gregory Thwaites, University of Nottingham
14:30

The Impact of Interest: Firms’ Investment Sensitivity to Interest Rates

  • Lea Best, ifo Institute Munich
  • Benjamin Born*, Frankfurt School of Finance & Management
  • Manuel Menkhoff, ifo Institute and LMU Munich
15:00

Climate Transition Beliefs

  • Marco Ceccarelli, VU Amsterdam
  • Stefano Ramelli*, University of St Gallen
15:30

Coffee break

Session 4 – Monetary policy, heterogeneity and inflation expectations

Session chair: Ioannis Ganoulis, European Central Bank

15:45

Bad Luck or Bad Decisions? Macroeconomic Implications of Persistent Heterogeneity in Optimism

  • Oliver Pfäuti, The University of Texas at Austin
  • Fabian Seyrich*, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management
  • Jonathan Zinman, Dartmouth College
16:15

Households' Preferences Over Inflation and Monetary Policy Tradeoffs

Damjan Pfajfar* and Fabian Winkler, both Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
16:45

How Inflation Expectations De-Anchor: The Role of Selective Memory Cues

  • Nicola Gennaioli, Bocconi University
  • Marta Leva, Stanford University
  • Raphael Schoenle*, Brandeis University
  • Andrei Shleifer, Harvard University
17:15

Coffee break

17:30

Keynote – Financial Literacy: Why Should Central Banks Care

Annamaria Lusardi, Stanford University

Keynote chair: Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB

18:30

Poster Session

Tracking Euro Area Wage Growth with the CES

Katarzyna Bankowska, Pedro Baptista*, Colm Bates, Maarten Dossche, Omiros Kouvavas and Athanasios Tsiortas, all European Central Bank

House Price Perceptions and the Housing Wealth Effect

Louiza Bartzoka*, Copenhagen Business School

Why Greek Consumers Are Pessimistic about Their Inflation Expectations? Evidence from the CES

Evangelos Charalambakis*, Bank of Greece

Inflation Expectations and Economic Preferences

Maximilian Floto*, Leibniz University Hannover

Identifying Macroeconomic Shocks Using Firm-Level Data: Material Shortages in the German Manufacturing Sector

Friederike Fourné* and Lara Zarges, both ifo Institute

The Effect of Inflation Uncertainty on Household Spending

  • Johannes Fischer, Deutsche Bundesbank
  • Christoph Herler*, Bank of England
  • Philip Schnattinger, Bank of England

Beyond Groceries: Financial Confidence and the Gender Gap in Inflation Expectations

Lovisa Reiche*, University of Oxford

Spillovers in Macroeconomic Expectations and Labor Supply: Implications for Wage-Price Spirals

Vitaliia Yaremko*, Trinity College Dublin

End of first conference day

19:30

Dinner – by invitation only

Wednesday, 2 October 2024
9:30

Registration and coffee

Session 5 – Geopolitical shocks, uncertainty and expectations

Session chair: Oscar Arce, European Central Bank

9:45

Do Election Shocks Affect Economic Expectations?

Olivier Armantier, Gizem Kosar, Giorgio Topa* and Wilbert van der Klaauw, all Federal Reserve Bank of New York

10:15

The Causal Effects of Inflation Uncertainty on Households’ Beliefs and Actions

  • Olivier Coibion, University of Texas at Austin
  • Dimitris Georgarakos*, European Central Bank
  • Yuriy Gorodnichenko, University of California, Berkeley
  • Geoff Kenny, European Central Bank
10:45

Households' Subjective Expectations: Disagreement, Common Drivers and Reaction to Monetary Policy

  • Stefano Pica, Banca d’Italia
  • Clodomiro Ferreira*, Banco de España
11:15

Coffee break

11:30

Policy panel

Chair: Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB

Panellists:

  • Yuriy Gorodnichenko, University of California, Berkeley
  • Kim Huynh, Bank of Canada
  • Wilbert van der Klaauw, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
13:00

Buffet lunch

Session 6 – Trade, firms and expectations measurement

Session chair: Maarten Dossche, European Central Bank

14:30

The Causal Effects of Expected Depreciations

  • Martha Elena Delgado, Inter American Development Bank
  • Juan Herreno, University of California, San Diego
  • Marc Hofstetter, Universidad de los Andes and CEDE
  • Mathieu Pedemonte*, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
15:00

The Coherence Side of Rationality: Theory and evidence from firm plans

Pamela Giustinelli* and Stefano Rossi, both Bocconi University
15:30

A Choice-Based Approach to the Measurement of Inflation Expectations

  • Olga Goldfayn-Frank*, Deutsche Bundesbank
  • Pascal Kieren, Heidelberg University
  • Stefan Trautmann, Alfred-Weber-Institute
16:00

Coffee break

16:15

Keynote – Reference Dependence in the Housing Market: Preferences and Beliefs

Tarun Ramadorai, Imperial College London

Keynote chair: Luc Laeven, European Central Bank

17:15

End of conference

This programme may be subject to change without notice.

Audiovisual notice: A photographer will be present at the event taking photographs for our internet / intranet webpage. If you prefer not to have your photograph taken, please approach the photographer directly. The event may be filmed and the video recording, or parts of it, may be published on the internet / intranet.

General information

Venue
European Central Bank
Sonnemannstrasse 20
60314 Frankfurt am Main
Language

English

Transfers

Participants are requested to arrange their own transfers, unless indicated otherwise.

Organising committee
  • Olivier Armantier, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
  • Maarten Dossche, European Central Bank
  • Dimitris Georgarakos, European Central Bank
  • Yuriy Gorodnichenko, University of California, Berkeley
  • Monica Jain, Bank of Canada
  • Geoff Kenny, European Central Bank
  • Gizem Kosar, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
  • Olena Kostyshyna, Bank of Canada
  • Patrick Sabourin, Bank of Canada
  • Jason Somerville, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
  • Wilbert van der Klaauw, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
  • Tao Wang, Bank of Canada
Contacts