Monthly developments in October 2000

The cumulative balance of the current account for the first ten months of this year amounts to a deficit of EUR 20.5 billion, compared with a small surplus of EUR 0.2 billion for the same period last year. This change stems mainly from a decrease in the goods surplus (from EUR 71.6 billion to EUR 49.7 billion). While exports of goods increased by 20.4 % in value during the first ten months of 2000 compared with the same period last year, the increase in import values was even stronger at 26.6%. However, in recent months the decline in the goods surplus has slowed down considerably (the average monthly goods surplus for the period from August to October of this year was only marginally lower than the surplus for the same months last year). In the financial account, direct investment recorded net outflows of EUR 15.7 billion in October 2000, reflecting direct investment abroad by euro area residents of EUR 24.8 billion and direct investment in the euro area by non-euro area residents of EUR 9.2 billion. Portfolio investment recorded net outflows of EUR 1.7 billion in October, resulting from net outflows in equities (EUR 6.7 billion) offsetting net inflows in debt instruments (EUR 5.0 billion). For the first ten months of 2000, combined net direct and portfolio investment outflows amounted to EUR 106.3 billion, which was lower than in the same period of 1999 (EUR 136.9 billion). This is largely related to the fact that up to October 2000 the balance for bonds and notes showed net inflows (EUR 87.7 billion) - by contrast with net outflows of EUR 46.9 billion up to October 1999 - which more than offset the rise in combined net outflows for direct investment and portfolio equity transactions (from EUR 125.2 in the first ten months of 1999 to EUR 227.6 billion in the same period of 2000).

Note on balance of payments statistics produced by the Eurosystem

The results for October 2000 will also be published in the January 2000 issue of the s. A detailed methodological note on euro area b.o.p. statistics is available on the ECB's website.

In October 2000, the current account deficit decreased by EUR 0.4 billion, compared with the figure for the same month last year, to EUR 0.1 billion. This marginal decrease is due to a reduction in the income deficit, which more than offset increases in the deficits for both services and current transfers and a small decline in the goods surplus. Another notable change in the current account in the first ten months of 2000 was the EUR 5.8 billion decline in the income deficit to EUR 22.2 billion compared with EUR 28.0 billion for the same period last year. This was partially offset by a slight increase in the services deficit (from EUR 8.0 billion to EUR 8.5 billion) along with a rise in the deficit for current transfers (from EUR 35.4 billion to EUR 39.5 billion). With regard to other items in the financial account, there were net outflows in financial derivatives, amounting to EUR 2.2 billion in October 2000, but there was a net inflow in other investment, amounting to EUR 11.8 billion. Reserve assets decreased by EUR 1.0 billion in October 2000 (excluding valuation effects). Errors and omissions amounted to EUR 6.8 billion in October 2000. The methodology used was developed in close co-operation with the European Commission (Eurostat) which publishes the Balance of Payments for the European Union. The ECB compiles these statistics on the basis of the data on extra-euro area transactions reported by euro area countries.

Annex

Table 1

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- Monthly balance of payments of the euro area for 1999 and 2000; Reproduction is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged