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Fausto Pastoris

28 September 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2023
Details
Abstract
In 2022, the euro area current account balance recorded a deficit of 0.8% of euro area GDP compared with a surplus of 2.8% of GDP in 2021. This deterioration of 3.6 percentage points is the biggest annual change in the euro area current account balance on record. This article reviews developments in the current account components. It shows that most of this deterioration is expected to be temporary as it was driven by a decline in the goods trade balance on the back of sharp increases in energy import prices. The euro area current account can therefore be expected to recover, driven by a partial rebound in the terms of trade, anticipated fiscal consolidation and largely unchanged demographic factors. However, as part of the increase in energy prices will probably persist over the medium term, the euro area current account balance is likely to stay somewhat below pre-pandemic levels.
JEL Code
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
10 November 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2022
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Abstract
This box provides an analysis of recent developments in trade and financial linkages between the euro area and Russia as recorded in the euro area balance of payments. The euro area current account balance vis-à-vis Russia turned from a small surplus into a deficit of 0.5% of euro area GDP between the second quarter of 2021 and the second quarter of this year, thus contributing significantly to the reduction in the euro area’s current account surplus over the same period. The bilateral current account deficit vis-à-vis Russia increased on account of the rising value of nominal imports, largely of energy products, and lower exports driven by EU sanctions. Euro area financial exposures to Russia before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine were relatively limited, with foreign direct investment (FDI) being the most important component. Since the start of the war euro area holdings of Russian assets have declined, while liabilities vis-à-vis Russia have increased due to the impact of EU sanctions.
JEL Code
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
21 June 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2021
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Abstract
Amid elevated volatility in economic activity and international trade due to the pandemic, the overall euro area current account surplus narrowed only slightly in 2020 compared with 2019, from 2.3% to 2.2% of GDP. However, external transactions in the current account contracted sharply during the first half of the year, following the outbreak of the pandemic and the introduction of measures to contain its spread. The economic repercussions of the pandemic were particularly visible in the trade in services balance, where travel restrictions led to a sharp reduction in the euro area surplus on travel services.
JEL Code
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
20 March 2020
STATISTICS PAPER SERIES - No. 34
Details
Abstract
The quality of the geographical breakdown in the balance of payments and related statistics (such as international trade in goods, trade in services and foreign direct investment (FDI) statistics) can be assessed by means of comparisons with mirror data in order to assess bilateral asymmetries. Although such comparisons are performed on a regular basis, they tend to focus on pairs of countries and are not sufficient to determine which of the countries involved has better data. This paper describes three synthetic indicators that have been developed with a view to assessing whole groups of countries. In the specific context of an economic union’s external account, they allow us to assess the quality of geographical breakdowns by country and the contribution that an individual country makes to the aggregate asymmetry for that group of countries. Those indicators are applied in the context of euro area FDI statistics.
JEL Code
C82 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data, Data Access
E01 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth, Environmental Accounts
F21 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Investment, Long-Term Capital Movements
F23 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→Multinational Firms, International Business