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Ivan Dimitrov
- 10 May 2024
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 347Details
- Abstract
- This paper presents the updated macroprudential stress test for the euro area banking system, comprising around 100 of the largest euro area credit institutions across 19 countries. The approach involves modelling banks’ reactions to changing economic conditions. It also examines the effects of adverse scenarios as defined for the European Banking Authority’s 2023 stress test on economies and the financial system as a whole by acknowledging a broad set of interactions and interdependencies between banks, other market participants and the real economy. Our results highlight the resilience of the euro area banking system and the important role banks’ adjustments play in the propagation of shocks to the financial sector and real economy.
- JEL Code
- C30 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→General
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
C54 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Quantitative Policy Modeling
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 11 October 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2855Details
- Abstract
- The Banking Euro Area Stress Test (BEAST) is a large-scale semi-structural model developed to analyse the euro area banking system from a macroprudential perspective. The model combines the dynamics of approximately 90 of the largest euro area banks with those of individual euro area economies. It reflects the heterogeneity of banks by replicat-ing the structure of their balance sheets and profit and loss accounts. Additionally, it allows banks to adjust their assets, funding mix, pricing decisions, management buffers, and profit distribution along with individual bank conditions, including their capital and liquidity re-quirements, and other supervisory limits. The responses of banks impact credit supply con-ditions and have feedback effects on the macroeconomic environment. Stochastic solutions of the model provide a solid foundation for investigating multiple scenarios, deriving at-risk measures, and estimating model uncertainty. The model is regularly utilised to assess the resilience of the euro area banking sector, including in the biennial ECB macroprudential stress tests, as well as to analyse the effects of regulatory, macroprudential, and monetary policy changes.
- JEL Code
- E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 27 July 2022
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 297Details
- Abstract
- This paper looks at the macroeconomic impact of the two policies proposed by ECB Banking Supervision to tackle the high share of non-performing loans (NPLs) on the balance sheets of euro area banks. The first is the coverage expectations for new NPLs set out in the Addendum to the ECB’s NPL Guidance, which aim to prevent the build-up of new NPLs, and the second is the coverage expectations for legacy NPLs, which target the reduction of already existing stocks of NPLs. The impact assessment of the package is analysed via a semi-structural model, the Banking Euro Area Stress Test (BEAST). The coverage expectations for NPLs are found to be effective in reducing banks’ NPLs. The phase-in of the policies can temporarily reduce bank profitability owing to increased loan loss provisioning targets. However, over a longer time horizon, lower NPL ratios reduce uncertainty and enable banks to access cheaper funding in the markets, ultimately benefiting lending and output growth. Furthermore, the coverage expectations can also moderately but persistently reduce procyclicality in the banking system.
- JEL Code
- E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 13 June 2022
- MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - ARTICLE - No. 17Details
- Abstract
- Macroprudential stress testing has provided timely policy assessment to tackle high levels of uncertainty about future developments during the COVID-19 pandemic and to back communications promoting the use of macroprudential capital buffers by banks. The lessons learned from the crisis can inform the setting of buffers along the path to policy normalisation.
- JEL Code
- E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 26 July 2021
- MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - ARTICLE - No. 14Details
- Abstract
- This article assesses the economic costs and benefits of the Basel III finalisation package for the euro area and shows that the transitory costs of the reform are outweighed by its permanent long-term benefits. Implementing EU-specific modifications to the Basel III reform, such as the small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) supporting factor, credit valuation adjustment (CVA) exemptions and discretion with regard to the operational risk capital charge, reduce the already moderate transitory costs of the reform, although they also reduce its long-run benefits. Approaches that, in addition, modify the implementation of the output floor fail to further reduce the short-term economic costs of the reform while again decreasing its long-term benefits.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 23 July 2021
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 258Details
- Abstract
- This paper assesses the macroeconomic implications of the Basel III finalisation for the euro area, employing a large-scale semi-structural model encompassing over 90 banks and 19-euro area economies. The new regulatory framework will influence banks’ reactions to economic conditions and, as a result, affect the ability of the banking system to amplify or dampen economic shocks. The assessment covers the entire distribution of conditional economic predictions to measure the cost and benefit of the reforms. Looking at the means of conditional forecasts of output growth provides an indication of the costs of the reform, namely a transitory reduction in euro area gross domestic product (GDP) and in lending to the non-financial private sector. Looking at the lower percentile of output growth forecasts, i.e. growth at risk, captures the long-term benefits of the Basel III finalisation package in terms of improved resilience and the ability of the banking system to supply lending to the real economy under adverse conditions. These permanent growth-at-risk benefits ultimately outweigh the short-term costs of the reform.
- JEL Code
- E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 21 May 2021
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 257Details
- Abstract
- This paper looks at the impact of mitigation policies implemented by supervisory and macroprudential authorities as well as national governments in the euro area during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic to support lending to the real economy. The impact assessment concerns joint, and individual, effect of supervisory measures introduced by the ECB Banking Supervision, a reduction in macroprudential buffers put forward by national macroprudential authorities, and public moratoria and guarantee schemes. The analysis has been conducted in the first half of 2020, in a situation of high uncertainty about how the crisis will develop in the future. Against this backdrop, it proposes a method of addressing such uncertainty by assessing the impact of policies across a full range of scenarios. We find that the supervisory, macroprudential and government policies should have helped to maintain higher lending to the non-financial private sector (around 5% higher than lending in the absence of policy measures) and, in particular, to non-financial corporations (12% higher than lending in the absence of policy measures), preventing further amplification of the recession via the banking sector. The national and supervisory and macroprudential actions have reinforced each other, and have been jointly able to affect a broader share of the banking sector.
- JEL Code
- E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 25 November 2020
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2020Details
- Abstract
- This box introduces the adverse scenario simulation and selection procedure used to assess the banking system resilience quantitatively. The adverse scenario paths are derived directly from the output of the ECB macro-micro model by generating a large number of alternative paths for economic and bank-level variables. The simulation technique uses combinations of macro-financial shocks sourced from their historical distributions. Given the simulated distribution of possible future economic conditions, the selected scenarios are then sorted out among adverse paths where the evolution of variables mirrors a particular narrative commonly linked to prevalent financial stability concerns.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G17 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Financial Forecasting and Simulation
E17 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- 21 September 2020
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2469Details
- Abstract
- The Banking Euro Area Stress Test (BEAST) is a large scale semi-structural model developed to assess the resilience of the euro area banking system from a macroprudential perspective. The model combines the dynamics of a high number of euro area banks with that of the euro area economies. It reflects banks’ heterogeneity by replicating the structure of their balance sheets and profit and loss accounts. In the model, banks adjust their assets, interest rates, and profit distribution in line with the economic conditions they face. Bank responses feed back to the macroeconomic environment affecting credit supply conditions. When applied to a stress test of the euro area banking system, the model reveals higher system-wide capital depletion than the analogous constant balance sheet exercise.
- JEL Code
- E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 2 July 2019
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 226Details
- Abstract
- This paper presents an approach to a macroprudential stress test for the euro area banking system, comprising the 91 largest euro area credit institutions across 19 countries. The approach involves modelling banks’ reactions to changing economic conditions. It also examines the effects of adverse scenarios on economies and the financial system as a whole by acknowledging a broad set of interactions and interdependencies between banks, other market participants, and the real economy. Our results highlight the importance of the starting level of bank capital, bank asset quality, and banks’ adjustments for the propagation of shocks to the financial sector and real economy.
- JEL Code
- E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation