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Judit Rariga

Monetary Policy

Division

Capital Markets/Financial Structure

Current Position

Economist

Fields of interest

Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

Email

erzsebet-judit.rariga@ecb.europa.eu

Professional experience
2023-

Economist, Directorate General Monetary Policy, Capital Markets/Financial Structure Division

2021-2022

Economist, Directorate General Monetary Policy, Monetary Analysis Division

2020

Financial risk expert, Directorate Risk Management, Risk Strategy Division

2013-2019

Economist, Central Bank of Hungary

8 February 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2024
Details
Abstract
Historically, the financial vulnerability indicator based on the Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE) evolves broadly in line with bankruptcies and other insolvency measures for firms in the euro area. The current rise in vulnerabilities identified in the SAFE is driven mostly by firms in industry, construction and trade and by large firms rather than by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Increasing interest expenses are important in explaining the likelihood of firms becoming vulnerable. Balance sheet data on firms in the SAFE confirm that corporate vulnerabilities have implications for their investment rate and employment growth. This provides further insights into the transmission of monetary policy to economic activity.
JEL Code
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
G33 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Bankruptcy, Liquidation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
27 September 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 6, 2023
Details
Abstract
In a pilot round of the Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE), conducted between 25 May and 26 June 2023, euro area firms were asked about climate change. Firms attach substantial importance to the potential negative impact from the physical risks of climate change. However, they are even more concerned about transition risks. Compared with physical risks, stricter climate standards provide a stronger incentive for firms to invest in climate change mitigation. Nonetheless, high financing costs and insufficient public subsidies are important obstacles to green investment. The results of the survey highlight the important role played by public loan guarantees and private sector funds in directing resources towards the greening of the economy.
JEL Code
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
29 June 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2023
Details
Abstract
According to the recent Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE), conducted between 6 March and 14 April 2023, euro area firms expect their selling prices to increase on average by 6.1% over the next 12 months. Selling price increases are expected to be higher for firms in the retail sector than for those in the non-retail sector. Input costs (mainly related to materials and energy) and financing costs are important factors for all firms when setting future selling prices. For firms in both the retail and non-retail sectors, expected increases in selling prices are higher for firms that anticipate an increase in their turnover. Manufacturing firms with higher past producer price increases expect a smaller increase in future selling prices over the next 12 months.
JEL Code
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
27 September 2022
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2733
Details
Abstract
How do households adjust to a large debt shock? This paper studies household responses to a revaluation of foreign currency household debt during a large depreciation in Hungary. Relative to similar local currency debtors, foreign currency debtors reduce consumption expenditures approximately one-for-one with increased debt service, suggesting binding liquidity constraints. Foreign currency debtors reduce both the quantity and quality of expenditures, consistent with nonhomothetic preferences and a “flight from quality.” Debt revaluation has no effect on labor market status, hours, or earnings, but there is a small adjustment toward foreign income streams and a substantial increase in home production.
JEL Code
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
G51 : Financial Economics
J20 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→General
15 September 2016
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 178
Details
Abstract
Global trade has been exceptionally weak over the past four years. While global trade grew at approximately twice the rate of GDP prior to the Great Recession, the ratio of global trade to GDP growth has declined to about unity since 2012. This paper assesses to what extent the change in the relationship between global trade and global economic activity is a temporary phenomenon or constitutes a lasting change. It finds that global trade growth has been primarily dampened by two factors. First, compositional factors, including geographical shifts in economic activity and changes in the composition of aggregate demand, have weighed on the sensitivity of trade to economic activity. Second, structural developments, such as waning growth in global value chains, a rise in non-tariff protectionist measures and a declining marginal impact of financial deepening, are dampening the support from factors that boosted global trade in the past. Notwithstanding the particularly pronounced weakness in 2015 that is assessed to be mostly a temporary phenomenon owing to a number of country-specific adverse shocks, the upside potential for trade over the medium term appears to be limited. The
JEL Code
F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
2024
Journal of Industrial and Business Economics
Firms’ Financing Conditions Before and After the Covid-19 pandemic: a survey–based analysis
  • Ferrando, A., Rariga, J.
2022
SUERF Policy Brief
  • Gyongyosi, Gy., Rariga, J. and Verner, E.
2021
Does EU membership facilitate convergence? The experience of the EU’s Eastern enlargement
Transformation of the financing and foreign trade model of the Hungarian Economy after EU accession
  • Boldizsar, A., Kekesi Zs. and Rariga J.
2017
MNB Occasional Paper
  • Rariga, J.
2014
MNB Occasional Paper
  • Gabriel, P., Rariga, J. and Varhegyi, J.
2013
MNB Bulletin
  • Gabriel, P., Molnar, Gy. and Rariga, J.