Lorenzo Cappiello
- 30 June 2022
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2673Details
- Abstract
- Using a novel quarterly dataset on debt financing of non-financial corporations, this paper provides the first empirical evaluation of the relative importance of loan and market-based finance (MBF) supply shocks on business cycles in the euro area as a whole and in its five largest countries. In a Bayesian VAR framework, the two credit supply shocks are identified via sign and inequality restrictions. The results suggest that both loan supply and MBF supply play an important role for business cycles. For the euro area, the explanatory power of the two credit supply shocks for GDP growth variations is comparable. However, there is heterogeneity across countries. In particular, in Germany and France, the explanatory power of MBF supply shocks exceeds that of loan supply shocks. Since MBF is mostly provided by non-bank financial intermediaries, the findings suggest that strengthening their resilience — such as through an enhanced macroprudential framework — would support GDP growth.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
G2 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services
- 17 November 2021
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2021Details
- Abstract
- Using a Bayesian vector autoregression model and drawing from a novel quarterly dataset on debt financing of non-financial corporations, this box estimates the effects of loan and market-based credit supply shocks on GDP growth in the euro area and the five largest euro area countries. A novel identification scheme with inequality restrictions is developed to distinguish between the two types of credit supply shock. The results suggest that not only loan supply but also market-based credit supply shocks play an important role for GDP growth. For the euro area as a whole, the explanatory power of both types of credit supply shock is found to be similar, while in Germany and France the explanatory power of market-based credit supply shocks exceeds that of loan supply shocks. Since market-based credit is mostly provided by non-bank financial intermediaries, the findings also suggest that strengthening the resilience of these intermediaries – such as through an enhanced macroprudential framework – would support GDP growth.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
G2 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services
- 12 October 2021
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2605Details
- Abstract
- We examine the transmission of monetary policy via the euro area investment fund sector using a Bayesian vector autoregressions framework. We find that expansionary shocks are associated with net inflows and that these are strongest for riskier fund types, reflecting search for yield among euro area investors. Search for yield behaviour by fund managers is also evident, as they shift away from low yielding cash assets following an expansionary shock. While higher risk-taking is an intended consequence of expansionary monetary policy, this dynamic may give rise to a build-up in liquidity risk over time, leaving the fund sector less resilient to large outflows in the face of a crisis.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 21 September 2021
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 270Details
- Abstract
- The financing structure of the euro area economy has evolved since the global financial crisis with non-bank financial intermediation taking a more prominent role. This shift affects the transmission of monetary policy. Compared with banks, non-bank financial intermediaries are more responsive to monetary policy measures that influence longer-term interest rates, such as asset purchases. The increasing role of debt securities in the financing structure of firms also leads to a stronger transmission of long-rate shocks. At the same time, short-term policy rates remain an effective tool to steer economic outcomes in the euro area, which is still highly reliant on bank loans. Amid a low interest rate environment, the growth of market-based finance has been accompanied by increased credit, liquidity and duration risk in the non-bank sector. Interconnections in the financial system can amplify contagion and impair the smooth transmission of monetary policy in periods of market distress. The growing importance of non-bank financial intermediaries has implications for the functioning of financial market segments relevant for monetary policy transmission, in particular the money markets and the bond markets.
- JEL Code
- E4 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
G2 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services
G38 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Government Policy and Regulation
- 25 November 2015
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - ARTICLEFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2015Details
- Abstract
- This special feature proposes a methodology to measure systemic risk as the percentage of banks defaulting simultaneously over a given time horizon for a given confidence level. The framework presented here is applied to euro area banks. It is observed that since the announcement of the comprehensive assessment in October 2013 banks have significantly reshuffled their security portfolios. This has resulted in a decline in the probability of systemic events occurring.
- JEL Code
- G00 : Financial Economics→General→General
- 27 November 2014
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - ARTICLEFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2014Details
- Abstract
- This special feature studies the effects of fire-sale externalities in the euro area banking sector. Using individual bank balance sheet data and a framework developed by Greenwood et al. (forthcoming), an indicator is constructed to quantify the effects of fire-sale spillovers in terms of losses in equity capital in the banking system. For some countries, loans to monetary financial institutions are the most systemic assets, while for others loans to households can pose systemic risks. Thanks to the fine granularity of the background data and monthly updates, the index can be used as an early warning indicator and a measure of systemic risk.
- JEL Code
- G00 : Financial Economics→General→General
- 28 May 2014
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - ARTICLEFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2014Details
- Abstract
- This special feature discusses the potential differences, tensions and complementarities between micro- and macro-prudential policies. It argues (i) that in spite of the frictions that may arise between them, micro- and macro-prudential policies overall complement each other, and (ii) that the two policy domains play an equally important role in ensuring financial stability. To benefit most from their complementarities, it is essential that there is constructive cooperation and information sharing between micro- and macro-supervision.
- JEL Code
- G00 : Financial Economics→General→General
- 29 January 2010
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1150Details
- Abstract
- Applying the identification strategy employed by Driscoll (2004) for the United States, this paper provides empirical evidence for the existence of a bank lending channel of monetary policy transmission in the euro area. In addition, and in contrast to recent findings for the US, we find that in the euro area changes in the supply of credit, both in terms of volumes and in terms of credit standards applied on loans to enterprises, have significant effects on real economic activity. This highlights the importance of the monitoring of credit developments in the toolkit of monetary policy and underpins the reasoning behind giving monetary and credit analysis a prominent role in the monetary policy strategy of the ECB. It also points to the potential negative repercussions on real economic growth of bank balance sheet impairments arising in the context of the financial crisis erupting in mid-2007 which led to the need for banks to delever their balance sheets and possibly to reduce their loan supply.
- JEL Code
- C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 30 June 2008
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 913Details
- Abstract
- This paper provides new evidence on the dynamics of equity risk premia in euro area stock markets across country and industry portfolios. We develop and estimate a conditional intertemporal CAPM where returns on aggregate euro area, country and industry portfolios depend on the market risk as well as on the risk that the investment opportunity set changes over time. Prices of risks are time-varying, according to a Kalman filter approach. We find that both market and intertemporal risks are significantly priced. When we include country and industry-specific risk factors they turn out to be not significantly priced for most industries, suggesting that euro area equity markets are well integrated. Overall, the analysis indicates that omitting the intertemporal factor leads to mispricing and misleading conclusions regarding the degree of financial integration across sectors and countries.
- JEL Code
- G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
F37 : International Economics→International Finance→International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
- 23 June 2008
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 906Details
- Abstract
- This paper investigates whether comovements between euro area equity returns at national and industry level have changed after the introduction of the euro. By adopting a regression quantile-based methodology, we find that after 1999 the degree of comovements among euro area national equity markets has augmented. By explicitly controlling for the impact of global factors, we show that this result cannot be explained away by recent world-wide trends. A more refined analysis based on an industry breakdown suggests that the increase in national index comovements is mainly driven by financial, industrials and consumer services sectors.
- JEL Code
- F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
C22 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- 13 March 2008
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 81Details
- Abstract
- The study considers three broad categories of financial integration measures: (i) price-based, which capture discrepancies in asset prices across different national markets; (ii) news-based, which analyse the impact that common factors have on the return process of an asset; (iii) quantity-based, which aim at quantifying the effects of frictions on the demand for and supply of securities. This paper finds that financial markets in the new EU Member States (plus Cyprus, Malta and Slovenia) are significantly less integrated than those of the euro area. Nevertheless, there is strong evidence that the process of integration is well under way and has accelerated since accession to the EU.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
F30 : International Economics→International Finance→General
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
- 12 March 2008
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 82Details
- Abstract
- This paper deals with two related issues: the sustainability of China's exchange rate regime and the opening up of its capital account. The exchange rate discussion deliberately passes over the issue of the “equilibrium” value of the renminbi and its alleged undervaluation - typically at the heart of the current policy debate - and focuses instead on the domestic costs of the current regime and the potential risks to domestic financial stability in the long run. The paper argues that the renminbi exchange rate should be increasingly determined by market forces and that administrative controls should be progressively relinquished. The exchange rate is obviously linked to well-functioning and efficient capital markets, which require no barriers to capital flows. Thus, exchange rate reform has to be correctly sequenced with reform of the capital account to avoid disruptive capital flows. The paper discusses China's twin surpluses of the current and capital accounts and attempts to identify the drivers of this “anomalous” external position. The pragmatic strategy pursued by the Chinese authorities in the aftermath of the Asian crisis encouraged FDI inflows and favoured the accumulation of a large stock of foreign exchange reserves. Combined with a relatively weak institutional setting, these factors have been important determinants of the pattern and composition of the country's capital flows and international investment position. Finally, the paper speculates on the outlook for Chinese capital flows should barriers to capital movements be lifted. It argues that whether China continues to supply capital to the rest of the world or eventually becomes a net borrower in international capital markets - as was the case for most of its recent history - will depend on the evolution of its institutions.
- JEL Code
- F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
F21 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Investment, Long-Term Capital Movements
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
P48 : Economic Systems→Other Economic Systems→Political Economy, Legal Institutions, Property Rights, Natural Resources, Energy, Environment, Regional Studies
- 27 September 2007
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 812Details
- Abstract
- This paper proposes an equilibrium relationship between expected exchange rate changes and differentials in expected returns on risky assets. We show that when expected returns on a risky asset in a certain economy are higher than the returns that are expected from investing in a risky asset in another economy, then the currency corresponding to the economy whose asset offers higher returns is expected to depreciate. Due to its similarity with Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP), we call this equilibrium condition "Uncovered Return Parity" (URP). However, in the URP condition returns' differentials are not known ex ante, while in the UIP they are. The paper finds empirical support in favour of URP for certain markets over some sample periods.
- JEL Code
- F30 : International Economics→International Finance→General
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
- 31 August 2007
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 801Details
- Abstract
- This paper tests for uncovered interest parity (UIP) at distant horizons for the US and its main trading partners, including both mature and emerging market economies, also exploring the existence of nonlinearities. At long and medium horizons, it finds support in favour of the standard, linear, specification of UIP for dollar rates vis-à-vis major floating currencies, but not vis-à-vis emerging market currencies. Moreover, the paper finds evidence that, not only yield differentials widen, but that US bond yields do react in anticipation of exchange rate movements, notably when these take place vis-à-vis major floating currencies. Last, the paper detects signs of nonlinearities in UIP at the mediumterm horizon for dollar rates vis-à-vis some of the major floating currencies, albeit surrounded by some uncertainty.
- JEL Code
- E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
- 27 October 2006
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 683Details
- Abstract
- This study assesses the degree of financial integration for a selected number of new EU member states between themselves and with the euro zone. Within the framework of a factor model for market returns, we measure integration as the amount of variance explained by the common factor relative to the local components. We show that this measure of integration coincides with return correlation. Correlations are proxied by comovements, estimated via a regression quantile-based methodology. We find that the largest new member states, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland, exhibit strong comovements both between themselves and with the euro area. As for smaller countries, only Estonia and to a less extent Cyprus show increased integration both with the euro zone and the block of large economies. In the bond markets, we document an increase in integration only for the Czech Republic versus Germany and Poland.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
F30 : International Economics→International Finance→General
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
- 23 March 2006
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 598Details
- Abstract
- We assess whether the euro had an impact first on the degree of integration of European financial markets, and, second, on the euro area term structure. We propose two methodologies to measure integration: one relies on time-varying GARCH correlations, and the other one on a regression quantile-based codependency measure. We document an overall increase in co movements in both equity and bond euro area markets, suggesting that integration has progressed since the introduction of the euro. However, while the correlations in bond markets reaches almost one for all euro area countries, co-movements in equity markets are much lower and the increase is limited to large euro area economies only. In the second part of the paper, we focus on the asset pricing implications of the euro. Specifically, we use a dynamic no arbitrage term structure model to examine the risk - return trade-off in the term structure of interest rates before and after the introduction of the euro. The analysis shows that while the average level of term premia seems little changed following the euro introduction, the variability of premia has been reduced as a result of smaller macro shocks during the euro period. Moreover, the macro factors that were found to be important in explaining the dynamics of premia before the introduction of the euro continue to play a key role in this respect also thereafter.
- JEL Code
- F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
C22 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes - Network
- Proceedings of June 2005 workshop on what effects is EMU having on the euro area and its member countries?
- 28 September 2005
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 529Details
- Abstract
- By employing Lucas' (1982) model, this study proposes an arbitrage relationship - the Uncovered Equity Return Parity (URP) condition - to explain the dynamics of exchange rates. When expected equity returns in a country/region are lower than expected equity returns in another country/region, the currency associated with the market offering lower returns is expected to appreciate. First, we test the URP assuming that investors are risk neutral and next we relax this hypothesis. The resulting risk premia are proxied by economic variables, which are related to the business cycle. We employ differentials in corporate earnings' growth rates, short-term interest rate changes, annual inflation rates, and net equity flows. The URP explains a large fraction of the variability of some European currencies vis-à-vis the US dollar. When confronted with the naïve random walk model, the URP for the EUR/USD performs better in terms of forecasts for a set of alternative statistics.
- JEL Code
- D82 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Asymmetric and Private Information, Mechanism Design
G14 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Information and Market Efficiency, Event Studies, Insider Trading
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
- 21 July 2005
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 501Details
- Abstract
- This paper develops a rigorous econometric framework to investigate the structure of codependence between random variables and to test whether it changes over time. Our approach is based on the computation - over both a test and a benchmark period - of the conditional probability that a random variable yt is lower than a given quantile, when the other random variable xt is also lower than its corresponding quantile, for any set of prespecified quantiles. Time-varying conditional quantiles are modeled via regression quantiles. The conditional probability is estimated through a simple OLS regression. We illustrate the methodology by investigating the impact of the crises of the 1990s on the major Latin American equity markets returns. Our results document significant increases in equity return co-movements during crises consistent with the presence of financial contagion.
- JEL Code
- C14 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
C22 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
- 25 February 2005
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 436Details
- Abstract
- This paper studies the role of inflation in the determination of financial asset prices. We estimate an Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model à la Merton (1973), with inflation as an independent source of risk, for France and Germany. Our study also allows us to evaluate how the different nature of the French and German monetary policies before 1999 as well as the convergence process towards the single currency might have affected the role of inflation in the pricing of financial assets. We find that inflation is a significant explanatory factor for the pricing of stocks and government bonds in the two countries. Moreover, while there seems to be no clear structural break in the impact of inflation on asset prices after Stage Three of Economic and Monetary Union, such an impact has been increasingly similar in the two countries after 1999.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
C61 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→Optimization Techniques, Programming Models, Dynamic Analysis
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
- 29 April 2004
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 13Details
- Abstract
- Accounting standard setters are considering the wider use of fair value accounting. This paper focuses on the financial stability implications of a move in the banking sector from the current accounting framework to full fair value accounting. A simulation exercise is performed on how various external shocks affect the balance sheet of an average European bank under the two frameworks. The paper further investigates the impact of the alternative framework on the main balance sheet items, and the interaction with banks
- JEL Code
- G14 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Information and Market Efficiency, Event Studies, Insider Trading
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
M41 : Business Administration and Business Economics, Marketing, Accounting→Accounting and Auditing→Accounting
- 1 January 2003
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 204Details
- Abstract
- This paper investigates the presence of asymmetric conditional second moments in international equity and bond returns. The analysis is carried out through an asymmetric version of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation model of Engle (2002). Widespread evidence is found that national equity index return series show strong asymmetries in conditional volatility, while little evidence is seen that bond index returns exhibit this behaviour. However, both bonds and equities exhibit asymmetry in conditional correlation. Worldwide linkages in the dynamics of volatility and correlation are examined. It is also found that beginning in January 1999, with the introduction of the Euro, there is significant evidence of a structural break in correlation, although not in volatility. The introduction of a fixed exchange rate regime leads to near perfect correlation among bond returns within EMU countries. However, equity return correlation both within and outside the EMU also increases after January 1999.
- JEL Code
- F3 : International Economics→International Finance
G1 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets
C5 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling