Rodolfo Arioli
- 8 November 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2023Details
- Abstract
- This box describes recent developments in housing rents in the euro area, also comparing them with developments in the United States. In the post-COVID period, increases in euro area rents have been moderate, despite a notable pick-up since mid-2022. This stands in contrast to the United States, where rent inflation has been a key driver of the post-pandemic inflation surge. Such differences are linked not only to measurement issues, but also to structural features of the housing market and regulatory specificities. Rent regulation is more prevalent in the euro area, where such institutional features have so far acted as a brake on rent rises.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
R21 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis→Housing Demand
R31 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Housing Supply and Markets
- 22 March 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 2, 2022Details
- Abstract
- In January 2022, Eurostat began publishing official euro area aggregates as part of its Owner-Occupied Housing Price Index (OOHPI). This box looks at the various sub-components of that index, offering a cross-country perspective and analysing their correlation with other price indicators at euro area level.
- JEL Code
- C43 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics→Index Numbers and Aggregation
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
- 16 February 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2022Details
- Abstract
- The ECB’s monetary policy strategy review confirmed that the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) remains the appropriate price measure for assessing the achievement of the medium-term price stability objective. However, the Governing Council recognised that the inclusion of costs related to owner-occupied housing in the HICP would better represent the inflation rate that is relevant for households. This article elaborates on the topic of owner-occupied housing and its proposed inclusion in the HICP. It showcases the two options considered by the Governing Council, focusing on their statistical and conceptual properties. For the net acquisition approach recommended by the Governing Council, the article presents analytical indices based on ECB approximations that serve as a blueprint for the quarterly internal measure to be monitored. Finally, the article looks ahead to the incorporation of the costs of owner-occupied housing into the HICP and the associated challenges, noting that the current HICP will remain the main reference index for monetary policy during the transition period.
- JEL Code
- C43 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics→Index Numbers and Aggregation
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
- 11 November 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2021Details
- Abstract
- In the wake of the ECB’s new monetary policy strategy, a special survey was conducted among the panel of participants in the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). The aim of the survey was to gain an insight into how the participants in the regular SPF survey have assessed the new strategy and into whether it has already had, or will have, an impact on their forecasts. Overall, respondents considered the new strategy to be an improvement, identifying the clearer inflation target (2%) and explicit commitment to symmetry as key elements. Regarding the impact on macroeconomic forecasts, around one-third of respondents indicated that they had revised their point longer-term inflation expectations, and a slightly larger portion indicated that they had revised (up) the balance of risks surrounding those expectations in response to the new strategy. The results of the survey suggest there is a strong correlation between what respondents viewed as key aspects in the new strategy and what they viewed as key improvements compared with the previous strategy.
- JEL Code
- E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
- 19 April 2017
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 186Details
- Abstract
- This report updates and extends earlier assessments of quantitative inflation perceptions and expectations of consumers in the euro area and the EU using an anonymised micro data set collected by the European Commission in the context of the Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys. Confirming earlier findings, consumers' quantitative estimates of inflation are found to be higher than actual HICP (Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices) inflation over the entire sample period (2004-2015). The analysis shows that European consumers hold different opinions of inflation depending on their income, age, education and gender. Although many of the features highlighted for the EU and the euro area aggregates are valid across individual Member States, differences exist also at the country level. Despite the higher inflation estimates, there is a high level of co-movement between measured and estimated (perceived/expected) inflation. Even respondents providing estimates largely above actual HICP inflation, demonstrate understanding of the relative level of inflation during both high and low inflation periods. Based on these economically plausible results, the report concludes that further work should be devoted to defining concrete aggregate indicators of consumers' quantitative inflation perceptions and expectations on the basis of the dataset used in this study. Moreover, it outlines a number of future research topics that can be addressed by exploiting the enormous potential of the data set.
- JEL Code
- D8 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
D12 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation