Vincent Vicard
- 28 January 2016
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 167Details
- Abstract
- Although monetary union created the conditions for improving economic and financial integration in the euro area, in the context of the financial and sovereign crises, it has also been accompanied by the emergence of severe imbalances in savings and investment, credit and housing booms in some countries and the allocation of resources towards less productive sectors. The global financial crisis and the euro area sovereign debt crisis then led to major and abrupt adjustments as the risks posed by the large imbalances materialised. Although the institutional shortcomings in the EU that permitted the emergence of imbalances have been largely addressed since 2008, the adjustment process is not yet complete. From a macroeconomic perspective, the imbalances in the external accounts have led to the accumulation of high levels of external liabilities that need to be reduced, which, in turn, is weakening investment and therefore weighing on growth prospects and growth potential. From a macroprudential perspective, the lingering imbalances have added to systemic risk and rendered the euro area more vulnerable to risks. This Occasional Paper analyses the dynamic patterns in macroeconomic imbalances primarily from the former perspective, addressing in particular the connections between macroeconomic and sectoral adjustments of imbalances and the challenges for economic growth and performance over a longer horizon.
- JEL Code
- E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
- 22 November 2013
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1616Details
- Abstract
- This paper provides evidence about the impact that size and experience in exporting have on firms' dynamics, a critical input in models of firms' dynamics. The analysis uses a census of French exports by firm-destination-product over the period 1994-2008 with a monthly frequency. We first uncover a large calendar year bias: the growth of exporters between the first and the second year of export is biased upwards because new exporters may start exporting late during the year. This incomplete calendar year reduces export revenue by 32% on average for the first year of export. We then show that, controlling for size, export experience is negatively related to net growth of exports for surviving exporters. Controlling for export experience, the relationship between average size and net growth of exports shows no systematic pattern. Finally, churning in foreign markets is decreasing with export experience and (sharply) with size.
- JEL Code
- F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
- Network
- Competitiveness Research Network
- 4 January 2012
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1412Details
- Abstract
- This paper analyzes the performance of global value chains during the trade collapse. To do so, it exploits a unique transaction-level dataset on French firms containing information on cross-border monthly transactions matched with data on worldwide intrafirm linkages as defined by property rights (multinational business groups, hierarchies of firms). This newly assembled dataset allows us to distinguish firm-level transactions among two alternative organizational modes of global value chains: internalization of activities (intragroup trade/trade among related parties) or establishment of supply contracts (arm's length trade/trade among unrelated parties). After an overall assessment of the role of global value chains during the trade collapse, we document that intra-group trade in intermediates was characterized by a faster drop followed by a faster recovery than arm's length trade. Amplified fluctuations in terms of trade elasticities by value chains have been referred to as the "bullwhip effect" and have been attributed to the adjustment of inventories within supply chains. In this paper we first confirm the existence of such an effect due to trade in intermediates, and we underline the role that different organizational modes can play in driving this adjustment.
- JEL Code
- F23 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→Multinational Firms, International Business
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
L22 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior→Firm Organization and Market Structure
- 20 September 2010
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1245Details
- Abstract
- Global trade contracted quickly and severely during the global crisis. This paper, using a unique dataset of French firms, matching together export data with firm-level credit constraints, shows that most of the 2008-2009 trade collapse is accounted by the unprecedented demand shock and by product characteristics. While all firms have been evenly affected by the crisis, large firms did so mainly through the intensive margin and by reducing the portfolio of products offered in each destination served. Smaller exporters instead have been forced to reduce the range of destinations served or to stop exporting altogether. Credit constraints, on their part, emerged as an aggravating factor for firms active in sectors of high financial dependence. Nonetheless, as the share of credit constrained firms is small and their number did not increase much during the crisis, the overall impact of credit constraints on trade remains limited.
- JEL Code
- F02 : International Economics→General→International Economic Order
F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
- 21 July 2010
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1227Details
- Abstract
- The unprecedented drop in international trade during the last quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009 has mainly been analysed at the macroeconomic or sectoral level. However, exporters who are heterogeneous in terms of productivity, size or external financial dependence should be heterogeneously affected by the crisis. This issue is examined in this paper by using data on monthly exports at the product and destination level for some 100,000 individual French exporters, up to 2009M4. We show that the drop in French exports is mainly due to the intensive margin of large exporters. Small and large exporters are evenly affected when sectoral and geographical specialisations are controlled for. Lastly, exporters (small and large) in sectors structurally more dependent on external finance are the most affected by the crisis.
- JEL Code
- F02 : International Economics→General→International Economic Order
F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises