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Wim Melyn

11 January 2022
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 288
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Abstract
A key element of the European reform agenda is to simplify the EU fiscal governance framework by moving towards a single debt anchor and a single operational indicator as the basis for formulating fiscal targets and assessing compliance. This paper puts forward an in-depth analysis of two alternative fiscal performance indicators currently used in the EU fiscal framework: the change in the structural balance and the expenditure benchmark. Comparing these two indicators allows us to identify options for the design of a fiscal performance measure – such as assumptions on cyclical adjustment and the inclusion of fiscal variables – and assess their policy impact. Our paper finds that the expenditure benchmark used in the EU fiscal governance framework has advantages over the change in the structural balance. However, it still has scope for improvement. The paper also shows that taking account of interest payments in the expenditure benchmark would make fiscal policy more supportive of the monetary policy stance.
JEL Code
C54 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Quantitative Policy Modeling
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E65 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
F54 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→Colonialism, Imperialism, Postcolonialism
F47 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
9 June 2005
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 30
Details
Abstract
Chapter 1 provides an overview and assessment of the price competitiveness and export performance of the euro area and the larger euro area countries, as well as an evaluation of how standard equations have been able to explain actual export developments. Chapter 2 carries out a constant market share analysis for the euro area and thereby sheds light on the reasons for movements in aggregate export market shares by looking at the sectoral and geographical composition of euro area exports. Chapter 3 looks at the evolution of the technological competitiveness of the euro area and major competitors
JEL Code
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles