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2002 Q1

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2002 Q1 inflation forecasts
  2002 2003 Dec. 2002 Dec. 2003 2006
Mean point estimate 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.9
Standard deviation 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2
Number of replies 57 55 52 50 42
Probability distributions 2002 2003 Dec. 2002 Dec. 2003 2006
<0.0% 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.30.3
0.0-0.4% 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.81.3
0.5-0.9% 3.7 3.2 3.6 3.94.1
1.0-1.4% 20.3 15.5 17.8 17.215.9
1.5-1.9% 49.8 45.6 43.4 41.939.7
2.0-2.4% 20.3 25.5 25.5 24.926.7
2.5-2.9% 4.7 7.2 7.8 8.07.4
3.0-3.4% 0.5 1.3 1.2 2.43.4
>3.4% 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.61.2
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2002 Q1 real GDP growth forecasts
  2002 2003 2002 Q3 2003 Q3 2006
Mean point estimate 1.3 2.6 1.7 2.6 2.5
Standard deviation 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2
Number of replies 57 55 50 48 43
Probability distributions 2002 2003 2002 Q3 2003 Q3 2006
<0.0% 0.9 0.3 0.5 0.10.4
0.0-0.4% 2.6 0.5 2.0 0.50.6
0.5-0.9% 15.5 1.4 8.0 1.51.3
1.0-1.4% 45.5 5.4 28.4 4.94.2
1.5-1.9% 25.2 14.0 31.8 10.78.1
2.0-2.4% 8.6 28.3 20.0 24.327.0
2.5-2.9% 1.4 33.1 7.2 34.339.3
3.0-3.4% 0.3 13.4 2.0 17.813.1
3.5-3.9% 0.1 2.3 0.1 5.04.5
>3.9% 0.1 1.2 0.0 1.01.3
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2002 Q1 unemployment rate forecasts
  2002 2003 Nov. 2002 Nov. 2003 2006
Mean point estimate 8.6 8.4 8.6 8.3 7.3
Standard deviation 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.9
Number of replies 56 53 45 42 35
Probability distributions 2002 2003 Nov. 2002 Nov. 2003 2006
<6.5% 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.18.7
6.5-6.9% 0.1 0.6 0.2 1.313.5
7.0-7.4% 0.5 3.3 0.8 4.817.1
7.5-7.9% 4.8 15.8 4.9 15.120.4
8.0-8.4% 21.2 30.6 25.2 32.217.3
8.5-8.9% 47.9 28.0 40.4 25.810.6
9.0-9.4% 19.1 14.0 19.7 13.45.7
9.5-9.9% 4.2 4.5 6.4 4.83.2
10.0-10.4% 1.4 1.8 1.7 1.81.7
10.5-10.9% 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.51.1
11.0-11.4% 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.20.5
11.5-11.9% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.00.2
>11.9% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0