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2005 Q2

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2005 Q2 inflation forecasts
  2005 2006 Mar. 2006 Mar. 2007 2009
Mean point estimate 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Number of replies 61 60 55 50 46
Probability distributions 2005 2006 Mar. 2006 Mar. 2007 2009
<0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.10.6
0.0-0.4% 0.1 0.4 0.4 1.11.5
0.5-0.9% 0.8 3.2 3.2 3.94.5
1.0-1.4% 6.5 14.2 15.7 14.513.8
1.5-1.9% 42.1 45.6 43.9 40.738.8
2.0-2.4% 42.2 27.9 28.3 29.227.4
2.5-2.9% 7.4 7.2 7.4 8.29.0
3.0-3.4% 0.9 1.3 1.0 2.13.6
>3.5% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.30.9
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2005 Q2 real GDP growth forecasts
  2005 2006 2005 Q4 2006 Q4 2009
Mean point estimate 1.6 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.2
Standard deviation 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3
Number of replies 61 60 55 54 46
Probability distributions 2005 2006 2005 Q4 2006 Q4 2009
<0.0% 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.20.5
0.0-0.4% 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.60.9
0.5-0.9% 5.5 3.1 3.1 2.72.7
1.0-1.4% 29.7 12.0 16.5 11.88.3
1.5-1.9% 46.6 35.3 42.9 31.029.7
2.0-2.4% 13.3 36.7 28.5 36.633.5
2.5-2.9% 2.6 8.7 6.7 13.216.0
3.0-3.4% 0.8 2.1 1.2 2.85.8
3.5-3.9% 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.92.0
>4.0% 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.20.7
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2005 Q2 unemployment rate forecasts
  2005 2006 Feb. 2006 Feb. 2007 2009
Mean point estimate 8.8 8.6 8.7 8.5 7.6
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6
Number of replies 59 58 48 43 42
Probability distributions 2005 2006 Feb. 2006 Feb. 2007 2009
<5.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.4
5.5-5.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01.2
6.0-6.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.14.6
6.5-6.9% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.78.7
7.0-7.4% 0.4 0.9 0.3 2.217.5
7.5-7.9% 1.8 5.8 4.3 11.118.6
8.0-8.4% 9.4 27.6 20.6 30.324.3
8.5-8.9% 58.7 43.1 48.3 35.016.0
9.0-9.4% 25.4 18.1 21.9 15.46.0
9.5-9.9% 3.4 3.1 3.2 3.21.7
10.0-10.4% 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.20.7
10.5-10.9% 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.70.1
>11.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.30.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0