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2011 Q1

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2011 Q1 inflation forecasts
  2011 2012 Dec. 2011 Dec. 2012 2015
Mean point estimate 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 2.0
Standard deviation 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3
Number of replies 56 54 52 48 49
Probability distributions 2011 2012 Dec. 2011 Dec. 2012 2015
<-1.0% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.10.1
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.20.2
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.70.5
0.0 to 0.4% 0.8 1.6 1.5 1.91.9
0.5 to 0.9% 2.9 5.4 4.4 6.45.1
1.0 to 1.4% 13.1 17.5 18.4 17.413.8
1.5 to 1.9% 37.6 37.5 37.6 33.530.6
2.0 to 2.4% 30.5 23.9 24.1 24.829.4
2.5 to 2.9% 11.0 9.0 8.8 9.911.6
3.0 to 3.4% 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.74.5
3.5 to 3.9% 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.01.7
>4.0% 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.30.5
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2011 Q1 real GDP growth forecasts
  2011 2012 2011 Q3 2012 Q3 2015
Mean point estimate 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.8 1.9
Standard deviation 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3
Number of replies 55 53 50 46 47
Probability distributions 2011 2012 2011 Q3 2012 Q3 2015
<-1.0% 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.40.2
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.40.5
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.11.2
0.0 to 0.4% 2.2 3.1 3.4 3.12.9
0.5 to 0.9% 7.2 7.8 11.8 8.86.4
1.0 to 1.4% 26.9 21.3 30.5 20.815.3
1.5 to 1.9% 39.2 34.5 32.7 31.529.1
2.0 to 2.4% 16.8 20.1 14.2 21.625.5
2.5 to 2.9% 4.6 7.3 4.2 8.312.2
3.0 to 3.4% 1.2 2.7 1.0 3.14.4
3.5 to 3.9% 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.71.8
>4.0% 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.10.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2011 Q1 unemployment rate forecasts
  2011 2012 Nov. 2011 Nov. 2012 2015
Mean point estimate 9.9 9.6 9.9 9.5 8.3
Standard deviation 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.7
Number of replies 55 53 46 44 43
Probability distributions 2011 2012 Nov. 2011 Nov. 2012 2015
<6.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.11.0
6.5 to 6.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.13.2
7.0 to 7.4% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.58.1
7.5 to 7.9% 0.0 0.7 0.1 1.414.5
8.0 to 8.4% 0.4 2.9 0.7 4.619.6
8.5 to 8.9% 2.5 8.8 3.9 11.322.2
9.0 to 9.4% 10.8 23.6 15.6 24.616.9
9.5 to 9.9% 33.5 31.3 35.2 28.58.2
10.0 to 10.4% 36.4 19.5 27.9 16.73.8
10.5 to 10.9% 12.6 8.8 11.3 7.71.4
11.0 to 11.4% 2.8 3.1 3.4 3.10.7
11.5 to 11.9% 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.10.4
12.0 to 12.4% 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.30.1
12.5 to 12.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.00.0
13.0 to 13.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
13.5 to 13.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.0 to 14.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0