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Bruno Fagandini
Economics
- Division
Prices & Costs
- Current Position
-
Research Analyst
- Fields of interest
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Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
- Education
- 2021-2022
MA in Econometrics and Empirical Economics, Toulouse School of Economics, France
- 16 December 2024
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 364Details
- Abstract
- This paper looks back on the 25-year history of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). Since its launch in the first quarter of 1999, it has served as an important input for policymaking and analysis, especially over the past five years, where the euro area has, following a period of low inflation, navigated a global pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and an unprecedented surge in inflation. The survey has evolved over time and provides not only a long time series of economic expectations and forecasts, but also valuable insights on key topical issues and on economic risks and uncertainties. We show that, for each of the three main macroeconomic variables forecast – HICP inflation, real GDP growth and the unemployment rate – the track record of the ECB SPF in forecasting has been broadly comparable to that of the Eurosystem. In addition, its combination of quantitative point forecasts and probability distributions with qualitative explanations has provided useful input for macroeconomic analysis. Beyond analyses of the forecasts for the main macroeconomic variables, there are also two further sections that examine the technical assumptions (oil prices, policy rates, exchange rates and wages) underlying SPF expectations and an analysis and assessment of measures of macroeconomic uncertainty. Technical assumptions are shown to account for the lion’s share of the variance in the inflation forecast errors, while uncertainty is shown to have increased considerably relative to that which prevailed during the early years of the SPF (1999-2008). Looking ahead, the SPF – with its long track record, its large and broad panel (spanning both financial and non-financial forecasters) and committed panellists – will undoubtedly continue to provide timely and useful insights for the ECB’s policymakers, macroeconomic experts, economic researchers and the wider public.
- JEL Code
- D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E66 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General Outlook and Conditions
- 25 April 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2024Details
- Abstract
- Changes in energy prices and wage costs can, to the extent these are passed through to consumer prices, have important effects on HICP inflation excluding energy and food (HICPX). Data from different sources can be matched to obtain the cost shares of energy and wages in various sectors. Since the importance of changes in input costs is likely to increase with the share of such costs in the overall input costs or in the production of a service or a good, this information allows HICPX inflation to be broken down into indicators for energy-sensitive and not energy-sensitive items, as well as into contributions from wage-sensitive and not wage-sensitive items. The energy-sensitive HICPX inflation indicator derived in this way illustrates the important role of the energy shock in HICPX inflation developments over the last few years. Similarly, the indicator for wage-sensitive HICPX inflation signals an important role for wages as a driver of underlying inflation in the euro area, especially more recently. The two indicators have little overlap – which helps in interpreting their signals.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
P44 : Economic Systems→Other Economic Systems→National Income, Product, and Expenditure, Money, Inflation
J30 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→General
Q4 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy
- 8 February 2024
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 338Details
- Abstract
- This paper introduces innovative, newly developed forward-looking indicators of negotiated wage growth in the euro area using data on collective bargaining agreements from seven countries: Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Austria and Greece. The paper demonstrates how agreement-level data can be used to study drivers of aggregate negotiated wage growth, as well as monitor the breadth of wage increases and account for time-varying factors such as one-off payments, when assessing wage pressures. Lastly, the paper shows that the new indicators can provide reliable signals about current and future developments of wage pressures in the euro area while also serving as important cross-checking tools for negotiated wage growth forecasts.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J31 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→Wage Level and Structure, Wage Differentials
J50 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Labor?Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining→General
- 4 August 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 5, 2023Details
- Abstract
- This box describes some key measures of underlying inflation and reassesses their predictive power for euro area headline inflation over a medium-term horizon. It discusses recent developments in underlying inflation and implications for the inflation outlook. It examines how underlying inflation measures can be adjusted to filter out some of the recent extraordinary shocks to inflation. Lastly, it analyses goods and services inflation individually.
- JEL Code
- C52 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 17 July 2023
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 321Details
- Abstract
- This paper analyses the implications of the evidence on micro price setting gathered by Price-setting Microdata Analysis Network (PRISMA) for inflation dynamics and monetary policy, relying on calibrated models and direct empirical evidence. According to models calibrated to the euro area micro evidence in Gautier et al. (2022, 2023), infrequent price changes and moderate state dependence in price setting should result in a meaningful Phillips curve in the euro area. Empirical estimates of the Phillips curve during the low-inflation period confirm previous findings of a relatively flat but stable slope. This estimated flat slope reflects both infrequent and subdued price adjustment in response to aggregate shocks, i.e. the presence of nominal and real rigidities. Model-based simulations show that, due to non-linearities in price setting, changes in trend inflation above 5-6% would have significant effects on the euro area Phillips curve. Similarly, shocks to nominal costs larger than 15% would result in non-linear effects on inflation dynamics in calibrated models. In line with these simulations, recent micro evidence suggests that the return of higher and more volatile inflation seems to be associated with higher frequencies of price changes, mainly because the frequency of price increases rises with the level and volatility of inflation.
- JEL Code
- E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
- 9 November 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2022Details
- Abstract
- This box examines the impact of the recent rise in inflation on low-income households in the euro area. Low-income households face significantly higher effective inflation rates than high-income households, due to a different composition of their consumption basket. Moreover, they are more liquidity-constrained and have less room to buffer sharp increases in their cost of living. Survey-based evidence shows that low-income households perceive the recent government measures aimed at easing the burden of higher energy prices as less adequate than high-income households do. This could suggest that there is potential for government support measures to be more targeted towards low-income households.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth