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Corrado Macchiarelli
- 10 June 2013
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1552Details
- Abstract
- In this paper we look at business cycles similarities between CEE countries and the euro area. Particularly, we uncover GDP-inflation cycles by adopting a trend-cycle decomposition model which allows the trend to be either stochastic or deterministic i.e. of the non-linear type. Once cyclical components are derived, we test for ex post restrictions at both with-in (GDP-to-inflation) and cross-country (CEECs vs. euro area) levels. Allowing for different degrees of cyclical similarity, we find that a similar inflation vs. GDP cycle is not rejected only for Poland, Lithuania, Romania and Estonia (with Latvia and the euro area being at the boundary). Looking at cross-country results, almost all countries feature a fair degree of similarity with respect to the euro area. Exceptions are Poland, Hungary, Latvia and Slovenia because of lack of a similar cycle either occurring in GDP or inflation, yet not in both. Finally, observing how concurrence between each CEECs cycle and the euro area evolved over time, we find that inflation conditional correlation increased stemming from the EU accession of most CEECs and as a result of the commodity price shock preceding 2008. Further, inflation and GDP conditional correlations receded during the course of 2009-2010, possibly resulting from more idiosyncratic adjustments in the aftermath of the crisis on the monetary/fiscal side. Interestingly, Slovenia, Slovakia, Estonia and Bulgaria display a conditional correlation pattern in GDP and inflation which roughly suggest a strong out-of-phase recovery starting from 2005.
- JEL Code
- C51 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Model Construction and Estimation
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F43 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Economic Growth of Open Economies
F44 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Business Cycles
- 26 February 2013
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1517Details
- Abstract
- The decision to cease working is traditionally influenced by a wide set of socio-economic and environmental variables. In this paper, we study transitions out of work for 26 EU countries over the period 2004-2009 in order to investigate the determinants of retirement based on the Eurostat Survey on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC). Applying standard survivor analysis tools to describe exits into retirement, we do not find any significant differences in the patterns into retirement between the average euro area and EU non-euro area countries. Moreover, we find that shifts into retirement have increased during the onset of the 2009 economic and financial crisis. Income, together with flexible working arrangements, is found to be important as regards early retirement decisions, compared to retiring beyond the legal retirement age. Finally, we show that institutional measures (such as, state/health benefits, minimum retirement age) could not be sufficient alone if individuals withdraw earlier from the labour market due to a weakening of their health. Especially, these latter results are of importance for structural and macroeconomic policy, for instance, in increasing the employment of both people and hours worked against the background of population ageing.
- JEL Code
- J14 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Economics of the Elderly, Economics of the Handicapped, Non-Labor Market Discrimination
J26 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Retirement, Retirement Policies
C41 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics→Duration Analysis, Optimal Timing Strategies
- 13 December 2011
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1405Details
- Abstract
- Since the end of the fixed rates in 1973 and after the EMS sterling dismissal in 1992, the value of the pound has undergone large cyclical fluctuations on average. Of particular interest to policy makers is the understanding of whether such movements are consistent with the lack or not of a correction mechanism to some long-run equilibrium. The purpose of the present study is to understand those dynamics, how the external value of the British sterling relative to the USD evolved during the recent floating experiences, and what have been the driving forces. In this paper we assume the real exchange rate to be determined by forces relating to the goods and capital market in a general equilibrium framework. This entails testing the purchasing power parity and the uncovered interest parity together. Our findings have two important implications, both for monetary policy. First, we show that some of the observed changes in the real exchange rates can not be solely attributed to changes in inflation rates, but, possibly, also to investors’ behavior. Secondly, we show that the special US dollar status of World reserve currency results into a weaker behavior of the US bond rate on international markets.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
C58 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Financial Econometrics
- 13 December 2011
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1404Details
- Abstract
- This study revisits the relation between the uncovered interest parity (UIP), the ex ante purchasing power parity (EXPPP) and the real interest parity (RIP) using a VAR approach for the US dollar, the British sterling and the Japanese yen interest rates, exchange rates and changes in prices. The original contribution is on developing some joint coefficient-based tests for the three parities conditions at a long horizon. Particularly, test results are derived by rewriting the UIP, the EXPPP and the RIP as a set of cross-equation restrictions in the VAR (see also Campbell and Shiller, 1987; Bekaert and Hodrick, 2001; and Bekaert et al., 2007; King and Kurmann, 2002). Consistent with the idea of some form of proportionality among the above three parities, we find a ”forward premium” bias in both the UIP - as it is normally found in empirical analysis (e.g. Fama, 1987) - and the ex ante PPP. The latter result is new in the literature and stems from testing the PPP in expectational terms, thus assuming agents to bear on the uncertainty of future exchange rate changes and inflation dynamics. The overall results confirm the UIP to be currency-based (see also Bekaert et al., 2007) and the EXPPP to be horizon-dependent (see also Lothian and Taylor, 1996; Taylor, 2002). Moreover, we find (weak) evidence that conditioning the VAR on variables having a strong forward-looking component (i.e. share prices) helps recover a unitary coefficient in the UIP equation.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
C58 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Financial Econometrics