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Hannah S. Hempell
- 24 October 2024
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 358Details
- Abstract
- In recent years, monetary policy and inflation considerations have been playing an increasingly important role for macroprudential authorities in their policy setting. This paper aims to assess the implications of high inflation and rising interest rates for macroprudential policy stance. The conceptual discussions and model-based analyses included in this paper reflect on the appropriate direction and impact of macroprudential policies at the different stages of financial and business cycles, given cross-country and banking system heterogeneities. In this context, a key objective of the paper is to assess to what extent the interaction between macroprudential and monetary policies differs, given the heterogeneity across euro area countries exposed to a homogenous monetary policy. While both policies are to a large extent complementary, monetary policy may generate relevant spillovers due to its impact on the financial cycle and, potentially, on financial stability. The paper argues that the recent focus of macroprudential policy on resilience, when banking sector conditions ensure no unwarranted procyclical effects of macroprudential tightening, suggests an expansion of the notion of “complementarity” with monetary policy. Specifically, with the build-up of resilience, macroprudential policy acts de facto countercyclically, supporting monetary policy in its pursuit of price stability. In this regard, the paper stresses that the source of the inflationary shock (supply versus demand side) and the monetary environment primarily affect the intensity, speed and extent of buffer build-up or release within each stage of the financial cycle while affecting borrower-based measures in their bindingness.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 23 February 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2789Details
- Abstract
- The acceleration of house price growth amidst falling interest rates to record-low levels across euro area countries between 2015 and 2021 has sparked renewed interest in the link between the two variables. Asset-pricing theory suggests that real house prices respond to changes in real interest rates in a non-linear fashion. This non-linearity should be especially pronounced at very low real interest rates. Most existing empirical studies estimate models with a con-stant semi-elasticity, thereby ruling out by design the potential non-linearities between house prices and interest rates. To address this issue, we estimate a panel model for the euro area countries with a constant interest rate elasticity (as opposed to a constant semi-elasticity), which is consistent with asset pricing theory. Our empirical results suggest that, in a low interest rate environment such as the period between 2015 and 2021, non-linearities in the house price response to interest rate changes are important: an increase of real interest rates from ultra-low levels could lead to downward pressure on real house prices three to eight times higher than the literature suggests.
- JEL Code
- E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
R21 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis→Housing Demand
R30 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→General
- 25 May 2022
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2022Details
- Abstract
- House prices increased substantially in advanced economies during the pandemic, fuelling concerns about possible price reversals and their implications for financial stability. Shifts in housing preferences, possibly reflecting a desire for more space coupled with less need for commuting due to teleworking modalities, and low interest rates have been important drivers of such recent strong house price growth across advanced economies. In the current low interest rate environment, increased sensitivity of house price growth to changes in real interest rates makes substantial house price reversals more likely. An abrupt repricing in the housing market – if the demand for housing were to go into reverse, for example, with a return to pre-pandemic work modalities, or real interest rates were to rise significantly – could produce spillovers to the wider financial system and economy.
- JEL Code
- E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
R21 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis→Housing Demand
R30 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→General
- 19 October 2021
- MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - ARTICLE - No. 15Details
- Abstract
- This article analysis the challenges of incorporating climate risks and their unique features in the existing prudential framework and explores potential avenues for addressing gaps identified in the banking framework.
- JEL Code
- Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 24 November 2020
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - ARTICLEFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2020Details
- Abstract
- Fiscal, prudential and monetary authorities have responded to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic by providing unprecedented support to the real economy. Importantly, the combination of policy actions has done more to limit the materialisation of risks to households and firms than each policy individually. Exploiting complementarities and ensuring the most effective combination of policies will, however, be equally important when authorities start to phase out the various related relief measures. The fact that in particular the enacted fiscal and labour market measures, as well as their phase-out schedules, differ substantially across the largest euro area economies further complicates the challenge of obtaining the most effective policy combination. Along with the reduction in support to the real economy, the phasing-out of policy measures could adversely affect banks’ balance sheets and capitalisation. Resulting cliff effects in policy support are relevant for prudential authorities in the context of their future decisions on the replenishment of capital buffers. The results of the analysis suggest there are substantial risks associated with the early withdrawal of policy support, although the analysis does not account for the medium-term risks of protracted policy support.
- JEL Code
- C68 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→Computable General Equilibrium Models
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
H81 : Public Economics→Miscellaneous Issues→Governmental Loans, Loan Guarantees, Credits, Grants, Bailouts
- 19 September 2016
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 179Details
- Abstract
- The euro area bank lending survey (BLS) serves as an important tool in the analysis of bank lending conditions in the euro area and across euro area countries, providing otherwise unobservable qualitative information on bank loan demand and supply from/to euro area enterprises and households. Since its introduction in 2003, the BLS has received growing attention and has become of key importance for the analysis and assessment of bank lending conditions in the euro area and at the national level. In particular in the context of the financial crisis, the BLS was used to gather additional information on the impact of the crisis and of the ECB
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 30 April 2012
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 133Details
- Abstract
- Shadow banking, as one of the main sources of financial stability concerns, is the subject of much international debate. In broad terms, shadow banking refers to activities related to credit intermediation and liquidity and maturity transformation that take place outside the regulated banking system. This paper presents a first investigation of the size and the structure of shadow banking within the euro area, using the statistical data sources available to the ECB/Eurosystem. Although overall shadow banking activity in the euro area is smaller than in the United States, it is significant, at least in some euro area countries. This is also broadly true for some of the components of shadow banking, particularly securitisation activity, money market funds and the repo markets. This paper also addresses the interconnection between the regulated and the non-bank-regulated segments of the financial sector. Over the recent past, this interconnection has increased, likely resulting in a higher risk of contagion across sectors and countries. Euro area banks now rely more on funding from the financial sector than in the past, in particular from other financial intermediaries (OFIs), which cover shadow banking entities, including securitisation vehicles. This source of funding is mainly shortterm and therefore more susceptible to runs and to the drying-up of liquidity. This finding confirms that macro-prudential authorities and supervisors should carefully monitor the growing interlinkages between the regulated banking sector and the shadow banking system. However, an in-depth assessment of the activities of shadow banking and of the interconnection with the regulated banking system would require further improvements in the availability of data and other sources of information.
- JEL Code
- G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 2 November 2010
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1262Details
- Abstract
- Aggregate loan development typically hinges on a combination of factors that impact simultaneously on the demand and the supply side of bank lending. The financial turmoil starting in mid-2007 had detrimental consequences for banks’ balance-sheets, cost of funds and profitability, thus weighing negatively on their ability to supply new loans. This paper examines the impact of supply constraints on bank lending in the euro area with a special focus on this turmoil period. The empirical evidence presented suggests that banks’ ability and willingness to supply loans affects overall bank lending activity in general and has done so particularly during the financial crisis. Applying a cross-country panel-econometric approach using a unique confidential data set on results from the Eurosystem’s bank lending survey allows us to disentangle loan supply and demand effects. We find that even when controlling for the effects coming from the demand side loan growth is negatively affected by supply-side constraints. This applies both for loans to households for house purchase and for loans to non-financial corporations. We furthermore provide evidence that the impact of supply-side constraints, especially related to disruptions of banks’ access to wholesale funding and their liquidity positions, was reinforced since the eruption of the financial crisis and corresponding adjustments in banks’ loan portfolios seem to have been geared primarily via prices rather than outright quantity restrictions.
- JEL Code
- C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages