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Tobias Helmersson
- 19 May 2021
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2021Details
- Abstract
- US equity market prices have surged over the last year, prompting concerns about stretched valuations and the potential risk of market corrections. For example, US equity prices could decline substantially if US Treasury yields increased on expectations of tighter monetary policy without significantly stronger real growth. In view of these developments, this box examines the implications of a possible correction in US stock prices for euro area financial conditions and financial stability. The results show that spillovers to euro area equity and corporate bond markets could be substantial, implying a broader tightening effect on euro area financial conditions.
- JEL Code
- G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
- 18 May 2021
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - ARTICLEFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2021Details
- Abstract
- Policy measures aimed at supporting corporates and the economy through the coronavirus pandemic may have supported not just otherwise viable firms, but also unprofitable but still operating firms – often referred to as “zombies”. This has in turn raised questions about an increased risk of zombification in the euro area economy, which could constrain the post-pandemic recovery. Firm-level, loan-level and supervisory data for euro area companies suggest that zombie firms may have temporarily benefited from loan schemes and accommodative credit conditions – but likely only to a modest degree. These firms may face tighter eligibility criteria for schemes and more recognition of credit risk in debt and loan pricing in the future. Tackling the risk of zombification more fundamentally requires the consideration of suggested reforms to insolvency frameworks and better infrastructure for banks to manage non-performing loans.
- JEL Code
- E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
G38 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Government Policy and Regulation
L25 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior→Firm Performance: Size, Diversification, and Scope
- 23 November 2020
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2020Details
- Abstract
- Credit rating downgrades - especially downgrades from investment grade to high yield (“fallen angels”) - can adversely affect the price and ease of a firm’s debt issuance. Such a downgrade can force (institutional) investors to sell securities, as investment mandates may restrict the securities that they are allowed to hold. We find that market repricing does not typically happen instantaneously after a downgrade, but instead over an extended period which preceding the actual downgrade. The impact of sales by institutional investors is softened by differences in the definition of “investment grade” and flexibility in investment funds’ mandates. Fallen angels since February 2020 follow this pattern, but with a swifter and stronger increase in the credit premium before the first downgrade. Securities of pandemic-related fallen angels show some post-event illiquidity which may be explained by the relatively sudden change in the broader economic outlook and wider market stress. Downgrades to below investment grade are typically also associated with lower bond issuance volumes. If a larger cohort of firms were to face funding pressures, this increases their vulnerability to shocks in the near term and, in the long term, could weigh on investment, creating wider macroeconomic costs.
- JEL Code
- G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G24 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Investment Banking, Venture Capital, Brokerage, Ratings and Ratings Agencies
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill