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- 18 October 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2024Details
- Abstract
- This box summarises the findings of recent contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 95 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. According to these exchanges, which took place between 16 and 26 September 2024, business momentum slowed somewhat over the summer, mainly as a result of declining confidence in the industrial sector, causing firms to scale back investment and focus on cost cutting. Meanwhile, the anticipated recovery in consumer spending was still rather patchy. Price growth moderated further overall, mainly on account of some easing in services prices. Wage growth was expected to slow further next year, while still compensating to some extent for past inflation.
- JEL Code
- E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
- 19 July 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 5, 2024Details
- Abstract
- This box summarises the findings of recent contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 62 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. According to these exchanges, which took place between 17 and 26 June 2024, aggregate activity continued to pick up in the second quarter, amid increasing signs of a modest, consumption-led recovery. The outlook for investment remained subdued, however, with uncertainty still high. Price growth was moderate and continued to be stronger in services than in industry. Wage growth was expected to slow further next year, while still compensating to some extent for past inflation.
- JEL Code
- E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
- 24 June 2024
- STATISTICS PAPER SERIES - No. 47Details
- Abstract
- The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) currently only includes rentals for housing (paid by tenants) and auxiliary housing expenditures (paid by both tenants and owners). The inclusion of an item for owner-occupied housing (OOH) would be desirable for both representativeness and cross-country comparability. This paper reviews the potential options for including OOH in the HICP to derive a new inflation index. We discuss the conceptual and measurement issues involved. Additionally, we present our analytical calculations on the impact and economic properties of this index as compared to the HICP. We show that since 2011 the estimated impact of including OOH in HICP annual inflation, based on either the “net acquisition” approach or the “rental equivalence” approach, would have been within a band of between -1.2 and +0.4 percentage points. The net acquisition approach could result in bigger differences in future, should the fluctuations in the housing market cycles in the euro area be more pronounced and synchronised. The results should be interpreted keeping in mind that the period of observation is relatively short in relation to housing market cycles. In general, the empirical evidence suggests that including OOH based on the rental equivalence approach decreases the cyclicality of the new inflation index, while the net acquisition approach implies a small amplification of its cyclical properties compared to the HICP.
- JEL Code
- C43 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics→Index Numbers and Aggregation
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
- 8 November 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2023Details
- Abstract
- This box describes recent developments in housing rents in the euro area, also comparing them with developments in the United States. In the post-COVID period, increases in euro area rents have been moderate, despite a notable pick-up since mid-2022. This stands in contrast to the United States, where rent inflation has been a key driver of the post-pandemic inflation surge. Such differences are linked not only to measurement issues, but also to structural features of the housing market and regulatory specificities. Rent regulation is more prevalent in the euro area, where such institutional features have so far acted as a brake on rent rises.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
R21 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis→Housing Demand
R31 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Housing Supply and Markets
- 27 October 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2023Details
- Abstract
- This box summarises the findings of recent contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 56 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. According to these exchanges, which took place between 25 September and 5 October, aggregate activity appeared to have contracted in the third quarter of 2023 and was expected to contract further in the fourth quarter. While there were still notable differences across sectors, tailwinds supporting activity in some sectors were reportedly fading and headwinds in other sectors continued to hold activity back. The growth rate of selling prices continued to slow in the third quarter of 2023 and further moderation was anticipated for the fourth quarter. This reflected a recovery of supply alongside moderating demand in some sectors, as well as relatively stable non-labour input costs. Wage growth remained strong but was expected to moderate slightly in 2024. The effect of tightening financing conditions over the past 12 months was notably greater in the industrial sector than in the services sector and was expected, on balance, to intensify in the next 12 months.
- JEL Code
- E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
- 3 February 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2023Details
- Abstract
- This box summarises the findings of recent contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 73 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. According to these exchanges, which took place between 4 and 12 January 2023, aggregate activity had broadly stagnated or contracted mildly in the fourth quarter of 2022, but with notable differences across sectors. The short-term outlook for activity remained subdued with much uncertainty, but there was increased hope of a pick-up in 2023. Selling prices continued to increase in aggregate, but at a moderating pace and with more variability across sectors and a less certain outlook. Wage growth was now the predominant cost concern, although wage expectations remained broadly unchanged from the previous survey round. Despite greater wage cost pressure and very high uncertainty regarding the future path of energy prices, most contacts expected lower price growth in 2023 than in 2022.
- JEL Code
- E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
- 17 November 2022
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2752Details
- Abstract
- This paper assesses the role of the housing market in the transmission of conventional and unconventional monetary policy across euro area regions. By exploiting a novel regional dataset on housing-related variables, a structural panel VAR analysis shows that monetary policy propagates effectively to economic activity and house prices, albeit in a heterogeneous fashion across regions. Although the housing channel plays a minor role in the transmission of monetary policy to the economy on average, its importance increases in the case of unconventional monetary policy. We also explore the determinants of the diverse transmission of monetary policy to economic activity across regions, finding a larger impact in areas with lower labour income and more widespread homeownership. An expansionary monetary policy can thus be effective in mitigating regional inequality via its stimulus to the economy.
- JEL Code
- D31 : Microeconomics→Distribution→Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
R31 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Housing Supply and Markets
- 10 October 2022
- MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - FOCUS - No. 19Details
- Abstract
- This focus proposes a novel framework, a combined price quantity model, which features demand and supply long-run relationships in the housing market, to assess the status of house prices and housing investment relative to equilibrium levels. It shows that in the first quarter of 2022 euro area house prices are estimated to be more than 10% above their equilibrium level, while housing investment is close to its equilibrium.
- JEL Code
- E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
R30 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→General
- 19 September 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2022Details
- Abstract
- Against a background of rising mortgage rates, this box investigates the impact of changes in mortgage rates on euro area house prices and housing investment through linear and non-linear local projections. The model evidence suggests that housing market dynamics are very sensitive to mortgage rates, especially in a low interest rate environment. At the current juncture, this points to a significant risk of a marked slowdown of the euro area housing market. Yet, pandemic-induced shifts in housing preferences, which are not captured by the models, could counteract higher mortgage rates and could potentially increase uncertainty surrounding the housing outlook.
- JEL Code
- E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
- 17 February 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2022Details
- Abstract
- This box summarises the main findings from contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 74 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. The exchanges mainly took place between 10 and 19 January 2022. According to these contacts, overall activity was strong or growing across a range of sectors. However, supply constraints were still limiting firms’ ability to meet demand and generating pipeline price pressures, on top of which businesses faced surging energy costs. Most contacts expected wage growth to pick up somewhat this year. Given the cost pressures and continued strong customer demand, most contacts reported increasing prices and a more dynamic pricing environment, especially in the industrial sector.
- JEL Code
- E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
- 9 November 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2021Details
- Abstract
- This article reviews the developments in the euro area housing market during the various phases of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and compares them with previous crises. During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, the introduction of mandatory and voluntary restrictions on economic agents’ mobility had a strong impact on housing market activity. However, in contrast to the global financial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis, the upward trend in house prices and housing loans continued unabated, which was also thanks to resilient demand for housing by households. During the second and third waves, the forceful support of monetary, fiscal and macroprudential policy measures amid more targeted containment measures ensured favourable financing conditions and helped increase the attractiveness of housing for investment purposes, while supply-side bottlenecks may have exerted some upward pressure on house prices. The outlook for the euro area housing market remains dependent on uncertainties related to pandemic developments, policy support and structural changes.
- JEL Code
- E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
R31 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Housing Supply and Markets
- 21 September 2021
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 265Details
- Abstract
- This paper – which takes into consideration overall experience with the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) as well as the improvements made to this measure of inflation since 2003 – finds that the HICP continues to fulfil the prerequisites for the index underlying the ECB’s definition of price stability. Nonetheless, there is scope for enhancing the HICP, especially by including owner-occupied housing (OOH) using the net acquisitions approach. Filling this long-standing gap is of utmost importance to increase the coverage and cross-country comparability of the HICP. In addition to integrating OOH into the HICP, further improvements would be welcome in harmonisation, especially regarding the treatment of product replacement and quality adjustment. Such measures may also help reduce the measurement bias that still exists in the HICP. Overall, a knowledge gap concerning the exact size of the measurement bias of the HICP remains, which calls for further research. More generally, the paper also finds that auxiliary inflation measures can play an important role in the ECB’s economic and monetary analyses. This applies not only to analytical series including OOH, but also to measures of underlying inflation or a cost of living index.
- JEL Code
- C43 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics→Index Numbers and Aggregation
C52 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
C82 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data, Data Access
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 21 June 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 4, 2021Details
- Abstract
- During the pandemic, euro area house price dynamics remained robust, notwithstanding a general deterioration in macroeconomic conditions. The pandemic has caused the number of housing transactions to fall, triggering a quantity adjustment rather than a price adjustment. Favourable financing conditions and fiscal policies are supporting household income and have cushioned negative effects on house prices. Moreover, weak construction activity since the start of the pandemic has weighed on supply, possibly adding to upward price pressures on existing housing. The observed resilience of euro area house prices appears to be broad-based and not limited to developments in capital cities in the euro area.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
- 23 April 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2021Details
- Abstract
- This box summarises the main findings from contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 66 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. The exchanges took place between 23 March and 1 April 2021. According to these contacts, activity in much of the services sector continued to be strongly influenced by the prevalence of lockdowns and travel restrictions. Meanwhile, in the manufacturing sector, supply was increasingly failing to keep up with demand owing to shortages of inputs, which may continue for some weeks or months. Industrial companies pointed to some upward movement in prices, while prices in the services sector remained subdued.
- JEL Code
- E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
- 4 February 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2021Details
- Abstract
- Housing costs represent a large share of the household budget. Developments in these costs are not only linked to house prices, rent and mortgage costs but are also influenced by certain household characteristics, such as tenure status. This is due to the fact that tenants and less affluent households, for example, tend to spend a large share of their income on housing. In addition, household characteristics affect the negative relationship between homeownership and the housing burden. Households with a higher income and living in larger households are predominantly homeowners. That said, higher homeownership rates are not, in themselves, necessarily good or bad, as they can be associated with a range of both positive and negative economic outcomes.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
R30 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→General
- 14 November 2019
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2328Details
- Abstract
- Using microdata from the second wave of the Household Finance and Consumption Survey, we investigate the accuracy of property values estimated by homeowners - so called “self-assessed” house prices - and explore the drivers of possible deviations of these prices from official hedonic house price indices. We find evidence that euro area homeowners overestimate the value of their properties by around 9%. Across the largest euro area countries, the overestimation lies in a range between 3.2% in Germany and 22% in Italy. Household characteristics, including the level of indebtedness, appear to explain significant discrepancies between hedonic and self-assessed house price indices, while the limited available data related to property characteristics are generally not affecting this gap. For the euro area, we find that higher self-assessed house prices are associated with a mild increase in consumption expenditures.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
C21 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Cross-Sectional Models, Spatial Models, Treatment Effect Models, Quantile Regressions
O18 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis, Housing, Infrastructure - Network
- Household Finance and Consumption Network (HFCN)
- 19 June 2019
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 4, 2019Details
- Abstract
- Rent inflation in the euro area has been subdued since the beginning of 2018, notwithstanding dynamics house price developments, and appears as a factor mitigating services and underlying inflation. Several factors affecting rent formation, such as low financing costs and a low-yield environment, may have contributed to these developments. In addition, rent indexation prevents rent from rising freely and a large fraction of existing rental contracts are not subject to rent increases. Relatively subdued rent inflation in the euro area is mainly due to low inflation and a limited turnover in rental contracts.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E66 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General Outlook and Conditions
- 6 November 2018
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2018Details
- Abstract
- The housing market has important macroeconomic and macroprudential implications for the euro area economy. In view of the duration of the ongoing upturn in euro area house prices and residential investment, which started at the end of 2013, analysing the state of the housing market is particularly informative. This article discusses the ongoing housing market upturn, from a chronological and fundamental perspective. It also explores a selected set of indicators that can potentially inform on the state of the housing market, elaborating on the demand and supply factors underpinning the current upturn, as well as their relative importance.
- JEL Code
- E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
R31 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Housing Supply and Markets
- 8 February 2018
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2018Details
- Abstract
- House price increases over the past few years may have implications for housing affordability. This box discusses some selected indicators of affordability both at the macro and micro level, and investigate the effects for renters, owner and potential buyers.
- JEL Code
- R30 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→General
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
- 12 June 2017
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2073Details
- Abstract
- We use a Bayesian stochastic search variable selection structural VAR model to investigate the heterogeneous impact of housing demand shocks on the macroeconomy and the role of house prices in the monetary policy transmission, across euro area countries. A novel set of identification restrictions, which combines zero and sign restrictions, is proposed. By exploiting the cross-sectional dimension of our data, we explore the differences in the propagation channels of house prices and monetary policy and the challenges they pose in the process of real and nominal convergence in the Eurozone. Among the main results, we find a comparatively stronger housing wealth effect on consumption in Ireland and Spain. We provide new evidence in support of the financial accelerator hypothesis, showing that house prices play an important role in the availability of loans. A significant and highly heterogeneous effect of monetary policy on house price dynamics is also documented.
- JEL Code
- C22 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 20 December 2011
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1410Details
- Abstract
- This paper explores the behavior of profits in the four largest euro area countries (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) and the euro area as a whole, while at the same time considering three main sectors (manufacturing, construction and services) in each economy over the period 1988–2010. The paper presents stylized facts about profit developments and, applying a vector autoregressive modeling framework, discusses the sensitivity of profits to four distinctive structural shocks (a demand shock, an employment shock, a wage and price mark-up shocks). In addition, it provides the shock decomposition of historical developments in profits across countries and sectors.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
E25 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
- 27 May 2011
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1343Details
- Abstract
- This paper examines the out-of-sample forecast performance of sectoral stock market indicators for real GDP, private consumption and investment growth up to 4 quarters ahead in the US and the euro area. Our findings are that the predictive content of sectoral stock market indicators: i) is potentially strong, particularly for the financial sector, and is stronger than that of financial spreads; ii) varies over time, with a substantial improvement after 1999 for the euro area; iii) is stronger for investment than for private consumption; and iv) is stronger in the euro area than in the United States.
- JEL Code
- C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
- 16 June 2010
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 113Details
- Abstract
- This report aims to analyse euro area energy markets and the impact of energy price changes on the macroeconomy from a monetary policy perspective. The core task of the report is to analyse the impact of energy price developments on output and consumer prices. Nevertheless, understanding the link between energy price fluctuations, inflationary pressures and the role of monetary policy in reacting to such pressure requires a deeper look at the structure of the economy. Energy prices have presented a challenge for the Eurosystem, as the volatility of the energy component of consumer prices has been high since the creation of EMU. At the same time, a look back into the past may not necessarily be very informative for gauging the likely impact of energy price changes on overall inflation in the future. For instance, the reaction of HICP inflation to energy price fluctuations seems to have been more muted during the past decade than in earlier periods such as the 1970s.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy - Network
- Eurosystem Monetary Transmission Network
- 8 June 2010
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1206Details
- Abstract
- This paper examines the time varying dispersion in city house price levels across the four biggest euro area countries compared with those in the United States. Using available city-level data over the period 1987-2008, it tests for price convergence and analyses key factors explaining price differentials in a panel regression framework including per capita income, population and relative distances. Results indicate limited evidence of convergence in city-level house prices despite synchronised cycles in the national aggregates for most countries since the 1990s. There is an important role for income differentials in explaining city-level house price dispersion in Germany, France, and the US (but not in Italy or Spain once unobserved city factors are taken into account). At the same time, population differences across cities play a role, though this appears to be associated with amenities specific to a particular location. In general, there has been a lower dispersion of city-level house prices in the four largest euro area economies compared with the US in conjunction with a lower estimated income elasticity for house price differentials. The results, particularly for income, appear to be robust to restricting the analysis to large urban centres.
- JEL Code
- R21 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis→Housing Demand
R31 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Housing Supply and Markets
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
- 30 June 2008
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 912Details
- Abstract
- This paper studies the role of wage moderation and labour and product market regulation for employment creation. To this end, labour demand estimates are presented for the five largest euro area countries at the aggregate level and for three macro sectors: manufacturing, construction and services. Estimates are carried out for individual countries as well as for the pooled group of countries. This paper shows that labour cost moderation generally helps employment creation, notwithstanding the fact that elasticities of employment to labour costs vary across the countries and sectors analysed. It also shows that some key institutional/structural variables add to the explanation of labour demand developments. In particular, in some countries and sectors, our results point to a negative link between employment growth, the unemployment benefit replacement rate and product market regulation.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J23 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Demand
J30 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→General
C22 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
- 10 April 2006
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 44Details
- Abstract
- This paper analyses the degree of competition in the euro area services sector and its effects on labour productivity and relative prices in that sector over the period 1980-2003. The importance of the euro area services sector has significantly increased over time; it now accounts for around 70% of the euro area's total nominal value added and employment. Labour productivity growth across the euro area services industries appears to be characterised by a high degree of diversity and the level of services inflation is on average higher than aggregate inflation. Investigating several proxies of market competition for the non-financial business services, the paper finds that limited competition in services tends to hamper labour productivity growth in the services sector. Moreover, results tend to suggest that measures aimed at increasing services market competition may have a dampening impact on relative price changes in some services sectors and thus temporarily on aggregate inflation.
- JEL Code
- E : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
- 11 April 2005
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 28Details
- Abstract
- In the course of the 1990s, the EU has embarked on an ambitious regulatory reform programme for a number of European network industries, such as telecommunications, energy and transport. This paper analyses the potential benefits of successful reforms in these sectors with a focus on the price effects of regulatory reforms. Following a review of the existing empirical literature in this field, the paper discusses the evolution of the current regulatory framework for network industries in the EU. An empirical analysis of the main determinants of recent price developments in these industries provides evidence that regulatory reform measures had a substantial downward impact on prices in the four sectors under review.
- JEL Code
- E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
L33 : Industrial Organization→Nonprofit Organizations and Public Enterprise→Comparison of Public and Private Enterprises and Nonprofit Institutions, Privatization, Contracting Out
L51 : Industrial Organization→Regulation and Industrial Policy→Economics of Regulation
L93 : Industrial Organization→Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities→Air Transportation
L94 : Industrial Organization→Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities→Electric Utilities
L95 : Industrial Organization→Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities→Gas Utilities, Pipelines, Water Utilities
L96 : Industrial Organization→Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities→Telecommunications
- 16 March 2005
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 453Details
- Abstract
- In this paper we explore the link between the intensity of product market competition and inflation rates across EU countries and sectors. We consider long-term averages of inflation rates in order to remove the cyclical behavior of inflation over time and as alternative proxies of competition we use the level of mark-up, profit margin, the profit rate and a survey based "intensity of competition" variable. Results for both aggregate and sectoral panels show that the extent of product market competition, as proxied by the level of mark-up in particular, is an important driver of inflation. Notwithstanding some caveats associated with the measurement of the proxies of competition used, our findings suggest that higher product market competition reduces average inflation rates for a prolonged period of time. Moreover, results both at the aggregate and sectoral level are generally confirmed by a wide set of robustness tests.
- JEL Code
- C21 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Cross-Sectional Models, Spatial Models, Treatment Effect Models, Quantile Regressions
C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
- 22 July 2004
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 374Details
- Abstract
- In this paper we investigate whether the forecast of the HICP components (indirect approach) improves upon the forecast of overall HICP (direct approach) and whether the aggregation of country forecasts improves upon the forecast of the euro-area as a whole, considering the four largest euro area countries. The direct approach provides clearly better results than the indirect approach for 12 and 18 steps ahead for the overall HICP, while for shorter horizons the results are mixed. For the euro area HICP excluding unprocessed food and energy(HICPX), the indirect forecast outperforms the direct whereas the differences are only marginal for the countries. The aggregation of country forecasts does not seem to improve upon the forecast of the euro area HICP and HICPX. This result has however to be taken with caution as differences appear to be rather small and due to the limited country coverage.
- JEL Code
- C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- 1 March 2002
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 133Details
- Abstract
- We investigate the usefulness of the European Commission confidence indicators in forecasting real GDP growth rates in the short-run in selected euro area countries (Belgium, Spain, Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands) which account for almost 90% of the euro area. We estimate a linear relationship between real GDP and confidence indicators and we compare the forecasting performance of the estimated models with a benchmark ARIMA model. We generally find that confidence indicators can be useful in forecasting real GDP growth rates in the short run in a number of countries (Belgium, Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands). Notwithstanding some signs of instability in the relationship between confidence indicators and real GDP, improvements with the use of time-varying parameter models appear to be fairly limited but confirm the findings obtained with constant parameter techniques. The results are robust to a wide range of variant tests implemented.
- JEL Code
- C22 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
E27 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications