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2004 Q3

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2004 Q3 inflation forecasts
  2004 2005 2006 June 2005 June 2006 2009
Mean point estimate 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Number of replies 58 58 47 54 44 46
Probability distributions 2004 2005 2006 June 2005 June 2006 2009
<0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.00.4
0.0-0.4% 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.51.5
0.5-0.9% 0.3 2.3 3.5 3.5 3.94.7
1.0-1.4% 2.4 10.9 13.8 16.0 14.512.4
1.5-1.9% 24.7 44.0 40.5 42.7 36.734.2
2.0-2.4% 63.1 34.4 31.7 29.3 31.830.1
2.5-2.9% 8.6 6.8 7.7 6.8 10.212.6
3.0-3.4% 0.8 1.1 1.8 1.0 1.83.3
>3.5% 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.40.9
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2004 Q3 real GDP growth forecasts
  2004 2005 2006 2005 Q1 2006 Q1 2009
Mean point estimate 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.3
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Number of replies 60 60 47 54 45 46
Probability distributions 2004 2005 2006 2005 Q1 2006 Q1 2009
<0.0% 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.30.7
0.0-0.4% 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.51.3
0.5-0.9% 1.5 1.7 2.3 2.0 1.93.1
1.0-1.4% 11.7 6.8 7.6 7.5 6.18.4
1.5-1.9% 58.8 25.4 22.7 30.5 22.519.1
2.0-2.4% 24.5 45.8 39.0 42.4 40.236.3
2.5-2.9% 2.2 15.4 20.7 13.5 19.819.0
3.0-3.4% 0.6 3.2 4.6 2.9 6.48.1
3.5-3.9% 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.2 2.23.3
>4.0% 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.20.7
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2004 Q3 unemployment rate forecasts
  2004 2005 2006 May 2005 May 2006 2009
Mean point estimate 8.9 8.6 8.3 8.7 8.3 7.5
Standard deviation 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.7
Number of replies 58 58 46 50 41 44
Probability distributions 2004 2005 2006 May 2005 May 2006 2009
<5.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.03.0
5.5-5.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01.1
6.0-6.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.03.5
6.5-6.9% 0.1 0.1 1.7 0.1 1.99.9
7.0-7.4% 0.1 0.4 3.2 0.5 3.321.8
7.5-7.9% 0.5 4.3 14.3 4.3 15.421.0
8.0-8.4% 5.7 24.9 33.2 24.5 34.020.7
8.5-8.9% 56.0 48.4 32.3 48.6 31.212.0
9.0-9.4% 34.3 18.2 11.4 18.4 10.64.6
9.5-9.9% 2.9 2.8 3.0 2.9 2.91.6
10.0-10.4% 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.70.6
10.5-10.9% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.00.2
>11.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.1
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0