Non disponibile in italiano
Gauthier Vermandel
- 29 September 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2847Details
- Abstract
- This paper studies the design of Ramsey optimal monetary policy in a Health New Keynesian (HeNK) model with Susceptible, Infected and Recovered (SIR) agents. The nonlinear model is estimated with maximum likelihood techniques on Euro Area data. Our objective is to deconstruct the mechanism by which contagion risk affects the conduct of monetary policy. If monetary policy is the only game in town, we find that the optimal policy features significant deviations from price stability to mitigate the effect of the pandemic. The best outcome is obtained when the optimal Ramsey policy is combined with a lockdown strategy of medium intensity. In this case, monetary policy can concentrate on its price stabilization objective.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
- 6 October 2020
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2477Details
- Abstract
- This paper demonstrates that empirically grounding the discount factor significantly influences the determination of the carbon price. Using two complementary nonlinear statistical approaches, we assess which utility formulations and corresponding stochastic discount factors best align with U.S. data. We provide evidence that habit formation is essential for capturing the time variation in the stochastic discount factor necessary to match the data. This increased time variation raises the carbon price by 32% and makes it five times more procyclical compared to standard models. The heightened procyclicality reduces aggregate risk, the risk premium, and the need for precautionary savings.
- JEL Code
- Q58 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Government Policy
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles