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2003 Q4

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2003 Q4 inflation forecasts
  2003 2004 2005 Sep. 2004 Sep. 2005 2008
Mean point estimate 2.0 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.9
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Number of replies 62 61 55 54 47 43
Probability distributions 2003 2004 2005 Sep. 2004 Sep. 2005 2008
<0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.40.4
0.0-0.4% 0.1 0.8 1.6 1.7 1.41.2
0.5-0.9% 0.4 4.0 5.0 6.2 4.84.5
1.0-1.4% 2.4 22.5 16.3 21.1 15.211.6
1.5-1.9% 26.4 49.4 42.7 43.6 38.136.1
2.0-2.4% 66.4 18.8 25.2 21.2 28.228.0
2.5-2.9% 3.7 3.7 6.5 4.7 8.411.6
3.0-3.4% 0.5 0.6 2.0 1.2 2.85.0
>3.5% 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.71.6
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2003 Q4 real GDP growth forecasts
  2003 2004 2005 2004 Q2 2005 Q2 2008
Mean point estimate 0.5 1.7 2.3 1.6 2.2 2.4
Standard deviation 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3
Number of replies 62 61 55 53 45 42
Probability distributions 2003 2004 2005 2004 Q2 2005 Q2 2008
<0.0% 3.4 0.8 0.2 0.8 0.80.5
0.0-0.4% 44.6 2.3 0.8 2.4 0.81.3
0.5-0.9% 43.4 8.2 2.7 8.6 3.13.4
1.0-1.4% 5.6 23.5 8.0 31.9 7.76.3
1.5-1.9% 2.6 44.0 20.3 33.1 20.617.3
2.0-2.4% 0.2 15.6 37.9 15.2 35.534.0
2.5-2.9% 0.1 4.1 21.7 5.1 21.323.8
3.0-3.4% 0.1 1.1 6.0 1.9 6.89.7
3.5-3.9% 0.0 0.3 1.8 0.4 2.33.3
>4.0% 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 1.10.5
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2003 Q4 unemployment rate forecasts
  2003 2004 2005 Aug. 2004 Aug. 2005 2008
Mean point estimate 8.8 8.9 8.5 8.8 8.5 7.4
Standard deviation 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.9
Number of replies 60 59 54 50 44 39
Probability distributions 2003 2004 2005 Aug. 2004 Aug. 2005 2008
<5.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.03.2
5.5-5.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02.3
6.0-6.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.15.4
6.5-6.9% 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.49.6
7.0-7.4% 0.4 0.4 2.5 0.4 4.622.9
7.5-7.9% 1.1 1.7 11.3 2.7 11.723.6
8.0-8.4% 4.4 10.1 28.3 15.4 31.616.5
8.5-8.9% 68.9 48.9 33.6 47.4 30.011.7
9.0-9.4% 22.9 30.4 16.9 26.7 15.53.6
9.5-9.9% 1.7 6.7 5.7 5.4 4.41.0
10.0-10.4% 0.3 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.40.2
10.5-10.9% 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.30.0
>11.0% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.20.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0