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2004 Q1

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2004 Q1 inflation forecasts
  2004 2005 Dec. 2004 Dec. 2005 2008
Mean point estimate 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Number of replies 59 57 55 53 43
Probability distributions 2004 2005 Dec. 2004 Dec. 2005 2008
<0.0% 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.30.6
0.0-0.4% 0.4 1.3 1.0 1.62.0
0.5-0.9% 2.9 4.6 4.0 4.85.9
1.0-1.4% 14.9 17.0 18.7 17.315.6
1.5-1.9% 52.3 45.1 46.7 41.433.7
2.0-2.4% 24.4 25.1 23.6 26.927.6
2.5-2.9% 4.1 5.1 4.5 5.710.2
3.0-3.4% 0.8 1.4 1.1 1.63.4
>3.5% 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.41.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2004 Q1 real GDP growth forecasts
  2004 2005 2004 Q3 2005 Q3 2008
Mean point estimate 1.8 2.2 2.0 2.3 2.3
Standard deviation 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Number of replies 60 58 54 52 45
Probability distributions 2004 2005 2004 Q3 2005 Q3 2008
<0.0% 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.70.5
0.0-0.4% 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.01.5
0.5-0.9% 4.5 3.8 3.9 3.64.0
1.0-1.4% 19.9 9.4 13.5 9.48.4
1.5-1.9% 41.2 23.9 37.9 21.320.5
2.0-2.4% 24.2 35.8 31.3 35.330.9
2.5-2.9% 6.1 18.0 7.7 19.620.3
3.0-3.4% 1.6 5.2 3.4 6.39.5
3.5-3.9% 0.3 1.5 0.7 1.83.5
>4.0% 0.2 0.7 0.1 0.90.9
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2004 Q1 unemployment rate forecasts
  2004 2005 Nov. 2004 Nov. 2005 2008
Mean point estimate 8.8 8.5 8.7 8.4 7.4
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6
Number of replies 58 56 47 46 40
Probability distributions 2004 2005 Nov. 2004 Nov. 2005 2008
<5.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.6
5.5-5.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02.1
6.0-6.4% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.14.4
6.5-6.9% 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.611.7
7.0-7.4% 0.6 1.5 0.6 2.119.8
7.5-7.9% 2.0 6.4 3.5 10.723.3
8.0-8.4% 12.8 33.0 19.0 35.418.0
8.5-8.9% 54.1 38.2 52.5 33.712.8
9.0-9.4% 24.8 15.5 20.0 13.64.8
9.5-9.9% 4.3 3.8 3.6 2.91.5
10.0-10.4% 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.80.6
10.5-10.9% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.10.2
>11.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.1
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0