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Andrej Mijakovic

9 January 2020
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2358
The predictive power of equilibrium exchange rate models
English
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Abstract
In this paper we evaluate the predictive power of the three most popular equilibrium exchange rate concepts: Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) and the Macroeconomic Balance (MB) approach. We show that there is a clear trade-off between storytelling and forecast accuracy. The PPP model offers little economic insights, but has good predictive power. The BEER framework, which links exchange rates to fundamentals, does not deliver forecasts of better quality than PPP. The MB approach has the most appealing economic interpretation, but performs poorly in forecasting terms. Sensitivity analysis confirms that changing the composition of fundamentals in the BEER model or modifying key underlying assumptions in the MB model does not generally enhance their predictive power.
JEL Code
C33 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
F37 : International Economics→International Finance→International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
5 August 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Services trade liberalisation and global imbalances: a critical review of the empirical evidence
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2019
English
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Abstract
This box assesses recent empirical analysis claiming that services trade liberalisation could be a remedy for global imbalances. The main finding of the box is that global imbalances – i.e. the magnitude of current account surpluses and deficits across countries – would remain essentially unchanged as a result of services trade liberalisation. Nonetheless (services) trade liberalisation should be expected to raise welfare overall, e.g. by fostering productivity growth.
JEL Code
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics