Latviešu valodas versija nav pieejama
António Rua
- 13 January 2021
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 253Details
- Abstract
- In order to understand why there is a continuous increase in euro banknote circulation even though the use of cash for transactions is decreasing in the euro area – a phenomenon known as the paradox of banknotes – the members of the Overseas workstream of the Eurosystem Research Network on Cash (EURECA) have conducted a study on the foreign demand for euro banknotes. The results of this study are based on desk research using data collected in the Eurosystem and from other organisations, and using both proven and innovative techniques.
- JEL Code
- E41 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Demand for Money
E47 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E49 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Other
E59 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Other
F24 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→Remittances - Network
- Eurosystem Research Network on Cash (EURECA)
- 7 April 2015
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1777Details
- Abstract
- The paper investigates the link between domestic demand pressure and exports by considering an error correction dynamic panel model for eleven euro area countries over the last two decades. The results suggest that there is a statistically significant substitution effect between domestic and foreign sales. Furthermore, this relationship appears to be asymmetric, as the link is much stronger when domestic demand falls than when it increases. Weakness in the domestic market translates into increased efforts to serve markets abroad, but, conversely, during times of boom, exports are not negatively affected by increasing domestic sales. This reorientation towards foreign markets was particularly important during the crisis period, and thus could represent a new adjustment channel to strong negative domestic shocks. The results have important policy implications, as this substitution effect between domestic and external markets might allow the euro area countries under stress to improve their trade outcomes with a relatively small downward pressure on domestic prices.
- JEL Code
- C22 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
C50 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→General
F10 : International Economics→Trade→General - Network
- Competitiveness Research Network
- 27 September 2013
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1594Details
- Abstract
- Traditionally, exports behavior is modeled only as a function of the foreign demand and the real exchange rate. However, it is by now widely acknowledged that these variables are not able to fully explain exports developments. This paper suggests considering domestic demand pressure as an additional variable, revisiting its economic rationale and assessing its empirical importance. In particular, we consider the Portuguese case and find that domestic demand developments are relevant for the short-run dynamics of exports. Moreover, it is found that this relationship is asymmetric, being stronger and more significant when domestic demand is falling than when it is increasing.
- JEL Code
- C22 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
C50 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→General
F10 : International Economics→Trade→General - Network
- Competitiveness Research Network
- 8 May 2008
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 84Details
- Abstract
- This paper evaluates different models for the short-term forecasting of real GDP growth in ten selected European countries and the euro area as a whole. Purely quarterly models are compared with models designed to exploit early releases of monthly indicators for the nowcast and forecast of quarterly GDP growth. Amongst the latter, we consider small bridge equations and forecast equations in which the bridging between monthly and quarterly data is achieved through a regression on factors extracted from large monthly datasets. The forecasting exercise is performed in a simulated real-time context, which takes account of publication lags in the individual series. In general, we find that models that exploit monthly information outperform models that use purely quarterly data and, amongst the former, factor models perform best.
- JEL Code
- E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods