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Katharina Cera
- 20 November 2024
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2024Details
- Abstract
- Recent episodes of widening sovereign bond spreads have led to renewed concerns about financial stability related to sovereign risk in the euro area. Against this backdrop, this box presents an empirical analysis of the shifts in financing conditions for both sovereigns and non-financial corporations, as well as changes in the sovereign bond holdings of domestic and foreign investors following a sovereign stress shock. The analysis finds that financing conditions for sovereigns and firms deteriorate after sovereign stress events, while financial and political uncertainty increase. When sovereign stress events occur, investment funds and global investors withdraw from euro sovereign debt markets, while domestic investors step in.
- JEL Code
- F34 : International Economics→International Finance→International Lending and Debt Problems
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 16 May 2024
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - ARTICLEFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2024Details
- Abstract
- Euro area private markets have grown significantly in recent years, providing alternative funding sources for companies and diversification benefits for investors. While private markets are currently small relative to public markets and bank lending in the euro area, continued strong growth, financial innovation and opaqueness in private markets could contribute to financial stability risks. Adverse economic shocks could result in rising defaults, valuation corrections and losses for private funds and their investors. Additionally, such shocks may be exacerbated by multiple layers of leverage at company, fund and investor level, or by liquidity mismatches for some open-ended private funds. For banks, risks could arise from lending exposures to these markets, as well as from rising competition with private funds, which could incentivise lower underwriting and credit standards.
- JEL Code
- G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
G24 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Investment Banking, Venture Capital, Brokerage, Ratings and Ratings Agencies
G30 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→General
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
- 22 November 2023
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2023Details
- Abstract
- The digitalisation of financial services brings a variety of benefits but could also amplify and accelerate the materialisation of financial stability risks. While the increased popularity of retail trading via apps enables wider risk sharing across the economy, it could result in more procyclicality in financial markets. In addition, digitalisation in the form of social media allows information to spread faster but could also trigger or amplify shocks in financial markets or the banking sector especially when interacting with the increased use of online banking. Overall, the digitalisation of financial services may have broader policy-relevant implications for financial markets and banks that should be monitored.
- JEL Code
- G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G14 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Information and Market Efficiency, Event Studies, Insider Trading
G18 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Government Policy and Regulation
G2 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services
G41 : Financial Economics
G53 : Financial Economics
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- 31 May 2023
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2023Details
- Abstract
- Foreign investors have a significant footprint in euro area government bond markets, but this has fallen since the Eurosystem launched its asset purchase programmes. Against this background, this box analyses the role and behaviour of global and domestic investment funds in euro area government bond markets. The results indicate that after global risk shocks, domestic investment funds tend to turn to euro area government bonds, while global funds cut back their exposures. Moreover, after events that lead to spreads widening among euro area government bond markets, global investment funds tend to play a stabilising role in euro area government bond markets since they typically increase their exposure to medium or lower-rated euro area government bonds.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
F30 : International Economics→International Finance→General
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 19 May 2021
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2021Details
- Abstract
- During the March 2020 market turmoil, investment funds shed assets on a large scale. But was this selling commensurate with the outflows they faced or was it much larger? This box finds evidence for the latter, highlighting that the less regulated non-UCITS funds tended to engage in more procyclical selling and cash hording than UCITS funds. While it can be rational for fund managers individually to sell assets in excess of current outflows when uncertainty about future redemptions is high, such cash hoarding can be detrimental to the stability of financial markets from a macroprudential perspective. The findings discussed in this box suggest that macroprudential regulation of the fund sector could help to mitigate procyclical behaviour.
- JEL Code
- G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 25 November 2020
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2020Details
- Abstract
- Market participants have been slow in transitioning to the euro short-term rate (€STR) as the new reference rate in the overnight index swap (OIS) market. The OIS market segment is a potential source of alternative risk-free interest rates to serve as a fall-back for the euro interbank offered rate (EURIBOR), the benchmark term rate underlying loan and debt security pricing for euro area households and corporates. The euro overnight index average (EONIA) rate is due to cease in January 2022. But trading activity in €STR-referencing OISs, although constantly growing, has remained at very low levels compared with EONIA-referencing OISs. Moreover, EONIA OIS trades that mature after the transition deadline have continued to rise. Market participants are encouraged are encouraged to redouble their efforts to ensure sufficient technical preparedness to trade, price and account for €STR-based products and manage risk related to usage of the €STR.
- JEL Code
- G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G13 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Contingent Pricing, Futures Pricing
- 9 November 2020
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2020Details
- Abstract
- Newly released data on the written premiums, incurred claims and acquisition expenses of insurance corporations help monitor the euro area insurance sector, which is growing in total assets and becoming increasingly important for financing the economy. The data reveal a significant growth in premiums and claims over the past two years, with considerable differences across insurance sectors. Incurred claims remain below premiums written and are growing at a slower pace. The data can also be used to assess the share of premiums used to attract new business and to monitor cross-border business activities via branches in the insurance sector.
- JEL Code
- E01 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth, Environmental Accounts
G22 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Insurance, Insurance Companies, Actuarial Studies
G52 : Financial Economics
- 26 May 2020
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2020Details
- Abstract
- Recent events have shown that stress in non-banks can affect other parts of the financial system, for example through forced asset sales and reduced short-term funding. This box examines the interconnections between banks and non-banks through direct exposures, overlapping portfolios and ownership links, and considers how these can increase the risk of systemic contagion.
- 25 May 2020
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2020Details
- Abstract
- Euro area money market funds (MMFs) provide short-term credit to banks and non-financial corporations (NFCs) through purchases of commercial paper (CP). MMFs also play an important role in non-banks’ cash and liquidity management, given that the funds offer stable value and the possibility to redeem at short notice. As the coronavirus crisis deepened, euro area MMFs experienced large outflows and a number of them had difficulties in raising sufficient cash from maturing assets and liquid positions. Stress in MMFs can impair the financial system’s and the real economy’s access to short-term funding and liquidity during crises. Monetary policy action helped to improve financial market conditions more broadly, thereby also alleviating liquidity strains in the MMF sector.
- JEL Code
- G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 2 July 2019
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 226Details
- Abstract
- This paper presents an approach to a macroprudential stress test for the euro area banking system, comprising the 91 largest euro area credit institutions across 19 countries. The approach involves modelling banks’ reactions to changing economic conditions. It also examines the effects of adverse scenarios on economies and the financial system as a whole by acknowledging a broad set of interactions and interdependencies between banks, other market participants, and the real economy. Our results highlight the importance of the starting level of bank capital, bank asset quality, and banks’ adjustments for the propagation of shocks to the financial sector and real economy.
- JEL Code
- E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 29 November 2018
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2018Details
- Abstract
- Liquidity in the Italian sovereign bond market deteriorated sharply at the end of May. Heightened political uncertainty led to a rise in Italian sovereign bond yields and triggered a short-lived flattening of the yield curve (see Chart 2.12, right panel). At the same time, liquidity conditions deteriorated significantly. On 29 May intraday bid-ask spreads increased to levels not seen since the height of the euro area sovereign debt crisis in 2011 (see Chart A, left and right panels). On the interdealer MTS platform specialised in the Italian market, the ratio of the bid-ask spread to the mid bid-ask price for the most recently issued ten-year (on-the-run) bond – a measure that moves inversely with market liquidity – rose from below 0.1% to above 5%. The resilience of the market has been adversely affected too. Orders larger than €50 million could no longer be executed at the best five prices quoted by participating dealers, according to intraday order-book data.