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Marco Weißler
Economics
- Division
Supply Side, Labour and Surveillance
- Current Position
-
Economist
- Fields of interest
-
Mathematical and Quantitative Methods,Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics,Labour Economics
- Education
- 2012-2019
Ph.D. in Economics, Goethe University, Frankfurt, Germany
- 2010-2012
M.Sc. in Economics, University of Bonn, Germany
- 2007-2010
B.Sc. in Economics, University of Mannheim, Germany
- Professional experience
- 2019-
Economist - European Central Bank (ECB), Frankfurt, Germany
- 2017-2019
Researcher - Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Frankfurt, Germany
- 2013-2017
Consultant - Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), Eschborn, Germany
- 25 April 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2024Details
- Abstract
- Headline and core inflation levels and momentum dynamics in the euro area are currently somewhat weaker than in the United States, reflecting buoyant rent inflation and consumption growth in the United States but also the different cyclical positions of the two economies. Core inflation remains elevated overall in both economic areas, due notably to high levels of services inflation. At the same time, goods inflation has declined considerably, in line with the normalisation of disrupted supply chains at the global level and lower commodity prices. Labour costs started moderating earlier in the United States, with euro area wage growth peaking later and productivity growth being muted by cyclical and structural factors.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 25 September 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2023Details
- Abstract
- The strong rebound in the labour force is a notable development in the euro area labour market and supported the resilient employment growth in recent quarters. In particular, over the last year and a half the main source of employment growth has been the strong inflow of people joining the labour force rather than a fall in the number of unemployed. This box provides an overview of recent euro area labour force developments, using data from Eurostat and the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey. It also analyses the drivers of the euro area labour force using a mixed-frequency Bayesian VAR to disentangle the push and pull factors behind the labour force dynamics.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
- 16 May 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2817Details
- Abstract
- Probabilistic job loss expectations elicited in the Consumer Expectations Survey have predictive power for future job loss. We find that an unexpected job loss leads to a negative consumption response, while this e˙ect is muted for workers with ex-ante job loss expectations - consistent with the Permanent Income Hypothesis. The negative consumption response to an unexpected job loss is stronger for workers who have worse perceptions of the local labour market, are older or have lower levels of liquid wealth. This supports the notion that the persistence of the unemployment shock is an important factor of the consumption response to a job loss. At the same time, we do not find a positive consumption response of workers who unexpectedly retain their job. These heterogeneous results have important implications for the expected impact on consumption of job protection measures such as job retention schemes.
- JEL Code
- D12 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
J63 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers→Turnover, Vacancies, Layoffs
- 15 February 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2023Details
- Abstract
- Work from home (WFH) patterns have changed substantially following the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and point to a persistently increased preference for remote work among workers. According to the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (CES), over 60% of workers had never worked from home before the pandemic, a share that then dropped to below 40% in the months following its onset. Around two-thirds of workers would still like to work remotely at least one day a week after the COVID-19 pandemic ends. Workers’ WFH preferences are broadly aligned with the preferences they perceive their employers to have. However, if workers have WFH preferences that exceed those they perceive their employers to have, they are more likely to change jobs. Two key factors affecting workers’ WFH preferences are their occupations and commute times.
- JEL Code
- J2 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor
- 20 September 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2022Details
- Abstract
- The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a temporary decrease in the labour market activity of older workers in the euro area. Our analysis finds that a part of the decrease was driven by a pandemic-induced shift in the retirement decisions of older workers, affecting around 175,000 people. This represents 0.5% of the labour force aged 55-74 retiring earlier than planned due to the pandemic. The heightened economic uncertainty and health risks stemming from the pandemic persuaded some older workers either to bide their time before returning to work or to retire early. Early retirement was most pronounced for workers in poorer health, stressing the growing importance of health risks for labour market developments.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J14 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Economics of the Elderly, Economics of the Handicapped, Non-Labor Market Discrimination
J26 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Retirement, Retirement Policies
- 1 August 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 5, 2022Details
- Abstract
- Oil prices spiked in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and have been volatile ever since. As the current increase in oil prices mainly reflects supply-side factors, it could also affect potential output. This box uses several approaches to assess the channels through which oil price hikes have an impact on potential output and to estimate the possible magnitude of the impact of the current shock. The quantitative estimates proposed should be regarded with caution given the current volatility in the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil and the uncertainty surrounding the amplitude of the shock, which will depend on how the conflict develops.
- JEL Code
- E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
Q41 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Demand and Supply, Prices
- 21 March 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXThe labour market recovery in the euro area through the lens of the ECB Consumer Expectations SurveyEconomic Bulletin Issue 2, 2022Details
- Abstract
- This box analyses the current labour market recovery using data from the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (CES). The CES allows for unique insights into the expectations and perceptions of labour market participants in the largest six countries of the euro area. We show that discouragement and unemployment perceptions declined as labour market conditions improved, while job-to-job transitions increased and so did earnings expectations. Despite the severity of the COVID-19 crisis there is no strong evidence in CES survey responses of a substantial deterioration in skill match and job satisfaction.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J62 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers→Job, Occupational, and Intergenerational Mobility
- 18 June 2020
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXLiquidity conditions and monetary policy operations in the period from 29 January 2020 to 5 May 2020Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2020Details
- Abstract
- This box describes the ECB’s monetary policy operations during the first two reserve maintenance periods of 2020, which ran from 29 January to 5 May 2020.
- JEL Code
- E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 26 March 2020
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 2, 2020Details
- Abstract
- This box describes the ECB’s monetary policy operations during the seventh and eighth reserve maintenance periods of 2019, which ran from 30 October to 17 December 2019 and from 18 December 2019 to 28 January 2020, respectively.
- JEL Code
- E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 2022
- Journal of Financial Market Infrastructures
- 2019
- IAB Forum
- 2019
- IAB-Discussion Paper 15|2019
- 2018
- IAB-Regional Hessen
- 2018
- IAB-Regional Hessen