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Marien Ferdinandusse
- 8 February 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2024Details
- Abstract
- This box provides updated estimates of the euro area discretionary fiscal measures related to the support provided by euro area governments in response to the energy crisis and high inflation. It also discusses how these measures relate to climate change in the context of the December 2023 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections.
- JEL Code
- E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
- 8 February 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2024Details
- Abstract
- Emission reduction measures have been adopted at both country and European Union (EU) levels. This box assesses the impact on euro area real GDP and inflation of green fiscal discretionary measures as included in the December 2023 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections. Since these measures are unlikely to be sufficient to fully achieve the EU targets for emission reduction, energy efficiency and renewable energy production, model simulations are used to illustrate the medium-term impact of alternative transition policy scenarios. These simulations suggest modest downside risks to GDP and upside risks to inflation from transition policies to achieve EU targets, but the effects depend on the transition policy mix.
- JEL Code
- E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
Q48 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Government Policy
- 28 September 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2023Details
- Abstract
- This box looks at the impact of financial sector support measures on euro area public finances 15 years after the great financial crisis that led to widespread government assistance for the financial sector.
- JEL Code
- H62 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Deficit, Surplus
H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management, Sovereign Debt
- 20 April 2023
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 315Details
- Abstract
- Fiscal policy plays a prominent role in climate change mitigation and adaptation. An optimal combination of revenue policies, in particular taxes, and expenditure policies, such as subsidies and investment, is essential in order to achieve greenhouse gas emissions targets. This paper analyses the main fiscal instruments in place in European Union Member States, focusing on specific issues, such as the fiscal impact of extreme weather events, the interaction between debt sustainability and climate change, the green investment gap and the distributional impact of climate policies. The paper aims to provide an overview of existing fiscal policies and of the main fiscal challenges for a comprehensive European climate change strategy.
- JEL Code
- H2 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
H5 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
H6 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
Q58 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Government Policy
D63 : Microeconomics→Welfare Economics→Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
- 15 February 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2023Details
- Abstract
- In line with the ECB’s comprehensive action plan to incorporate climate change considerations into its policy framework, technical assumptions on carbon pricing have been introduced in the Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projections, along with a regular evaluation of the impact of climate-related fiscal policies on the projections baseline. This box evaluates the impact of green fiscal measures on GDP growth and inflation and discusses potential effects and risks to the outlook posed by the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) and non-fiscal climate-related measures. The overall impact of green measures on euro area real GDP growth is expected to be very small until 2025, and their impact on inflation is limited but increases slightly over time. Over the period 2022-25, fiscal measures that are detrimental to the green transition outweigh green measures. Changes to the EU ETS under the “Fit for 55” package, and the sustained shift towards renewable energy sources implied by regulation, could pose both upside and downside risks to the inflation outlook, especially from 2025 onwards.
- JEL Code
- Q58 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Government Policy
O44 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Environment and Growth
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
- 28 September 2022
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 99Details
- Abstract
- While there is broad consensus that carbon pricing is an effective instrument for combatting climate change, the potential contribution of central banks is still debated. Central banks around the world have adopted different strategies to consider climate change in their monetary policy frameworks. This article focuses on green quantitative easing (QE). Compared with a carbon tax, we find that green QE would contribute only moderately to reducing global temperatures, while partially crowding out green private investment. However, green QE could serve as a complementary instrument, especially if governments fail to coordinate on introducing a sufficiently ambitious carbon tax on the global scale.
- JEL Code
- E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
- 21 September 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2022Details
- Abstract
- Mitigating climate change requires sustained and multipronged policy efforts, as a matter of urgency. Many initiatives to mitigate climate change are directly linked to fiscal policy, mainly through public spending or taxation. This article provides an overview of existing, required and expected fiscal climate policy efforts to advance the green transition in the euro area, focusing on carbon pricing and green public investment. It also looks at the distributional consequences of carbon pricing.
- JEL Code
- H23 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Externalities, Redistributive Effects, Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
H30 : Public Economics→Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents→General
Q52 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Pollution Control Adoption Costs, Distributional Effects, Employment Effects
Q58 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Government Policy
- 8 August 2022
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2701Details
- Abstract
- We develop a two-sector incomplete markets integrated assessment model to analyze the effectiveness of green quantitative easing (QE) in complementing fiscal policies for climate change mitigation. We model green QE through an outstanding stock of private assets held by a monetary authority and its portfolio allocation between a clean and a dirty sector of production. Green QE leads to a partial crowding out of private capital in the green sector and to a modest reduction of the global temperature by 0.04 degrees of Celsius until 2100. A moderate global carbon tax of 50 USD per tonne of carbon is 4 times more effective.
- JEL Code
- E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
- 21 September 2021
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 273Details
- Abstract
- The last review of the ECB’s monetary policy strategy in 2003 followed a period of predominantly upside risks to price stability. Experience following the 2008 financial crisis has focused renewed attention on the question of how monetary and fiscal policy should best interact, in particular in an environment of structurally low interest rates and persistent downside risks to price stability. This debate has been further intensified by the economic impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. In the euro area, the unique architecture of a monetary union consisting of sovereign Member States, with cross-country heterogeneities and weaknesses in its overall construction, poses important challenges. Against this background, this report revisits monetary-fiscal policy interactions in the euro area from a monetary policy perspective and with a focus on the ramifications for price stability and maintaining central bank independence and credibility. The report consists of three parts. The first chapter presents a conceptual framework for thinking about monetary-fiscal policy interactions, thereby setting the stage for a discussion of specifically euro area aspects and challenges in subsequent parts of the report. In particular, it reviews the main ingredients of the pre-global financial crisis consensus on monetary-fiscal policy interactions and addresses significant new insights and refinements which have gained prominence since 2003. In doing so, the chapter distinguishes between general conceptual aspects – i.e. those aspects that pertain to an environment characterised by a single central bank and a single fiscal authority and those aspects that pertain to an environment characterised by a single central bank and many fiscal authorities (a multi-country monetary union). ...
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
- 28 January 2021
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 255Details
- Abstract
- In response to the economic fallout from the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the European Council agreed on the Next Generation EU (NGEU) instrument. NGEU allows the European Commission to issue debt to finance grants and loans to EU Member States, with the disbursement of funds intended to be weighted towards the countries most affected by the crisis. This paper assesses the macroeconomic impact on the euro area of different uses of NGEU, using a large dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of the euro area and global economy (EAGLE) that has been adapted to reflect the modalities of the NGEU instrument. Three uses of NGEU loans and grants are explored: (i) productive public investment, (ii) unproductive government spending, and (iii) replacing or repaying existing sovereign debt. The EAGLE results are cross-checked with a semi-structural model (ECB-BASE) and with the basic model elasticities (BMEs) of the forecasting models in use in the national central banks of the Eurosystem.
- JEL Code
- C54 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Quantitative Policy Modeling
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E65 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
F54 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→Colonialism, Imperialism, Postcolonialism
F47 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- 4 May 2020
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2399Details
- Abstract
- We consider the effects of quantitative easing on liquidity and prices of bonds in a search-and matching model. The model explicitly distinguishes between demand and supply effects of central bank asset purchases. Both are shown to lead to a decline in yields, while they have opposite effects on market liquidity. This results in a price-liquidity trade-off. Initially, liquidity improves in reaction to central bank demand. As the central bank buys and holds bonds, supply becomes scarcer and other buyers are crowded out. As a result, liquidity can fall below initial levels. The magnitude of the effects depend on the presence of preferred habitat investors. In markets with a higher share of these investors, bonds are scarcer and central bank asset purchases lower yields more. With a lower share of preferred habitat investors and a relatively illiquid market, central bank demand has a stronger positive effect on liquidity. We are the first to construct an index from bond holding data to measure the prevalence of preferred habitat investors in each euro area country. Subsequently, we calibrate the model to the euro area and show how yields and liquidity are affected by the European Central Banks asset purchase programme.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates - Network
- Research Task Force (RTF)
- 21 April 2020
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 240Details
- Abstract
- The paper describes the main transmission channels of the spillovers of national fiscal policies to other countries within the euro area and investigates their magnitude using different models. In the context of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), fiscal spillovers are relevant for the accurate assessment of the cyclical outlook in euro area countries, as well as in the debates on a coordinated change in the euro area fiscal stance and on a euro area fiscal capacity. The paper focuses on spillovers from expenditure-based expansions by presenting two complementary exercises. The first is an empirical investigation of spillovers based on a new, long quarterly dataset for the largest euro area countries and on new estimates based on annual data for a panel of 11 euro area countries. The second uses a multi-country general equilibrium model with a rich fiscal specification and the capacity to analyse trade spillovers. Fiscal spillovers are found to be heterogeneous but generally positive among euro area countries. The reaction of interest rates to fiscal expansions is an important determinant of the magnitude of spillovers.
- 6 February 2019
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2019Details
- Abstract
- The article describes the main transmission channels of the spillovers of national fiscal policies to other countries within a monetary union and investigates their magnitude using different models.
- JEL Code
- E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
- 25 September 2018
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2018Details
- Abstract
- This box looks at the evolution of the fiscal impact of the financial sector support measures taken in the ten years since the financial crisis struck. It takes stock of the fiscal costs of the crisis and the extent to which the recovery has helped to recoup them. This is done by focusing on the measures' impact on deficits and debt, and on the state guarantees granted to banks and other financial institutions. Steps have been taken since the crisis to improve the supervision of the financial sector, the orderly resolution of failing financial institutions, the sustainability of public finances and the resilience of sovereigns, for example by establishing bodies like the Single Supervisory Mechanism, the Single Resolution Mechanism and the European Fiscal Board.
- JEL Code
- G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
H12 : Public Economics→Structure and Scope of Government→Crisis Management
H62 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Deficit, Surplus
H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management, Sovereign Debt
- 21 February 2017
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2021Details
- Abstract
- We consider the effect of an increase in public investments on output in Europe against the background of a sharp drop of public investments in a number of EU countries during the crisis and subsequent policy discussions on the need to stimulate public investments. We start with a brief overview of recent developments in public investments, including some methodological issues, and provide a literature overview of the effect of public investments on growth. On the basis of updated estimates of the public capital stock, we estimate the output response to a public capital impulse, using VAR models. In addition, using a structural model, we investigate the sensitivity of the macroeconomic impact of an increase in public investments to alternative assumptions about economic structures and policy implementations.
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
C30 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→General
- 31 January 2017
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 182Details
- Abstract
- This paper analyses the appropriateness of the euro area fiscal stance. In this context, the paper presents the relevant definitions and how the euro area fiscal stance has evolved over time. Furthermore, it contains an evaluation of the appropriateness of the euro area aggregated fiscal stance set out in the European Commission
- JEL Code
- E61 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Policy Objectives, Policy Designs and Consistency, Policy Coordination
- 25 June 2008
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 85Details
- Abstract
- This paper reviews the governance framework of the Lisbon Strategy and discusses the specific option of increasing the role of benchmarking as a means of improving the implementation record of structural reforms in the European Union. Against this background, the paper puts forward a possible avenue for developing a strong form of quantitative benchmarking, namely ranking. The ranking methodology relies on the construction of a synthetic indicator using the "benefit of the doubt" approach, which acknowledges differences in emphasis among Member States with regard to structural reform priorities. The methodology is applied by using the structural indicators that have been commonly agreed by the governments of the Member States, but could also be used for ranking exercises on the basis of other indicators.
- JEL Code
- D02 : Microeconomics→General→Institutions: Design, Formation, and Operations
P11 : Economic Systems→Capitalist Systems→Planning, Coordination, and Reform
P16 : Economic Systems→Capitalist Systems→Political Economy
C43 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics→Index Numbers and Aggregation
C61 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→Optimization Techniques, Programming Models, Dynamic Analysis