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2001 Q3

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2001 Q3 inflation forecasts
  2001 2002 2003 June 2002 June 2003 2006
Mean point estimate 2.7 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
Standard deviation 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2
Number of replies 50 49 41 46 36 34
Probability distributions 2001 2002 2003 June 2002 June 2003 2006
<0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.40.5
0.0-0.4% 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.5 1.31.4
0.5-0.9% 0.2 2.0 4.1 3.6 4.85.5
1.0-1.4% 0.2 10.1 15.2 15.6 19.616.2
1.5-1.9% 2.1 41.8 43.6 41.6 39.138.7
2.0-2.4% 23.8 36.5 26.7 27.6 25.426.8
2.5-2.9% 60.9 8.0 6.8 8.5 6.56.6
3.0-3.4% 12.5 1.3 2.2 2.3 2.33.1
>3.4% 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.61.2
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2001 Q3 real GDP growth forecasts
  2001 2002 2003 2002 Q1 2003 Q1 2006
Mean point estimate 2.0 2.4 2.6 2.0 2.6 2.6
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2
Number of replies 50 49 40 42 35 34
Probability distributions 2001 2002 2003 2002 Q1 2003 Q1 2006
<0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.20.4
0.0-0.4% 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.1 0.31.1
0.5-0.9% 0.1 1.4 1.0 3.5 1.81.6
1.0-1.4% 4.7 4.7 2.8 10.1 4.34.0
1.5-1.9% 37.4 14.2 9.2 30.6 13.77.9
2.0-2.4% 47.7 40.4 29.9 35.9 28.624.5
2.5-2.9% 8.3 32.0 42.4 15.7 35.041.2
3.0-3.4% 1.3 5.4 11.7 1.8 12.312.5
3.5-3.9% 0.3 1.0 2.2 0.6 2.94.5
>3.9% 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.72.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2001 Q3 unemployment rate forecasts
  2001 2002 2003 May 2002 May 2003 2006
Mean point estimate 8.4 8.2 7.9 8.2 7.9 7.1
Standard deviation 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.9
Number of replies 47 46 38 39 32 30
Probability distributions 2001 2002 2003 May 2002 May 2003 2006
<6.5% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.611.7
6.5-6.9% 0.1 0.4 1.9 0.7 2.422.0
7.0-7.4% 0.4 4.1 15.1 5.2 16.223.8
7.5-7.9% 5.9 23.4 33.9 20.4 32.216.3
8.0-8.4% 49.5 43.4 28.2 42.7 29.212.5
8.5-8.9% 37.2 21.3 14.8 25.3 14.58.2
9.0-9.4% 5.6 5.4 4.2 4.6 3.32.8
9.5-9.9% 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.70.8
10.0-10.4% 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.20.5
10.5-10.9% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.20.5
11.0-11.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.20.5
11.5-11.9% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10.2
>11.9% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10.2
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0