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2009 Q4

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2009 Q4 inflation forecasts
  2009 2010 2011 Sep. 2010 Sep. 2011 2014
Mean point estimate 0.3 1.2 1.6 1.3 1.7 1.9
Standard deviation 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2
Number of replies 57 57 49 49 43 49
Probability distributions 2009 2010 2011 Sep. 2010 Sep. 2011 2014
<-2.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
-2.0 to -1.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
-1.5 to -1.1% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.20.1
-1.0 to -0.6% 1.1 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.60.1
-0.5 to -0.1% 7.6 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.50.8
0.0 to 0.4% 70.8 8.9 5.4 7.3 4.11.9
0.5 to 0.9% 17.8 24.3 11.6 17.9 10.75.4
1.0 to 1.4% 2.0 37.1 21.4 33.2 20.213.8
1.5 to 1.9% 0.4 20.5 32.6 25.9 29.832.6
2.0 to 2.4% 0.0 5.1 19.1 9.0 22.228.4
2.5 to 2.9% 0.0 1.2 5.6 2.8 7.711.7
3.0 to 3.4% 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.8 2.33.6
3.5 to 3.9% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.61.1
>4.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.20.3
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2009 Q4 real GDP growth forecasts
  2009 2010 2011 2010 Q2 2011 Q2 2014
Mean point estimate -3.9 1.0 1.6 1.2 1.6 1.9
Standard deviation 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.3
Number of replies 57 57 49 50 45 49
Probability distributions 2009 2010 2011 2010 Q2 2011 Q2 2014
<-6.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
-6.0 to -5.6% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
-5.5 to -5.1% 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
-5.0 to -4.6% 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
-4.5 to -4.1% 28.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
-4.0 to -3.6% 50.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
-3.5 to -3.1% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
-3.0 to -2.6% 1.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.10.0
-2.5 to -2.1% 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.10.0
-2.0 to -1.6% 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.20.1
-1.5 to -1.1% 0.0 1.1 0.4 0.7 0.40.2
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.0 2.1 1.0 1.5 0.80.5
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.0 5.1 1.7 4.2 1.61.3
0.0 to 0.4% 0.0 13.5 5.0 11.1 4.33.1
0.5 to 0.9% 0.0 27.7 11.5 22.1 12.55.9
1.0 to 1.4% 0.0 27.1 24.2 27.3 23.916.8
1.5 to 1.9% 0.0 14.1 28.4 17.6 28.429.3
2.0 to 2.4% 0.0 6.1 17.0 8.3 17.323.6
2.5 to 2.9% 0.0 1.7 7.4 4.2 6.911.9
3.0 to 3.4% 0.0 0.6 2.3 1.7 2.35.0
3.5 to 3.9% 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.81.6
>4.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.20.7
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2009 Q4 unemployment rate forecasts
  2009 2010 2011 Aug. 2010 Aug. 2011 2014
Mean point estimate 9.5 10.6 10.4 10.6 10.4 8.5
Standard deviation 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.9
Number of replies 54 54 48 45 41 42
Probability distributions 2009 2010 2011 Aug. 2010 Aug. 2011 2014
<5.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.1
5.5 to 5.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.2
6.0 to 6.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.9
6.5 to 6.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.03.8
7.0 to 7.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.19.0
7.5 to 7.9% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.218.6
8.0 to 8.4% 0.6 0.0 0.5 0.0 1.022.4
8.5 to 8.9% 3.9 0.5 2.1 0.6 3.316.1
9.0 to 9.4% 37.7 2.4 8.5 3.3 10.310.6
9.5 to 9.9% 44.3 12.5 15.9 13.4 17.66.5
10.0 to 10.4% 12.1 28.8 24.4 25.9 25.14.4
10.5 to 10.9% 0.9 29.2 21.6 28.4 18.83.1
11.0 to 11.4% 0.1 16.6 12.5 16.6 11.21.4
11.5 to 11.9% 0.0 6.7 7.4 8.0 5.71.1
12.0 to 12.4% 0.0 2.1 3.6 2.4 2.80.8
12.5 to 12.9% 0.0 1.0 1.7 0.8 1.80.5
13.0 to 13.4% 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.3 1.00.3
13.5 to 13.9% 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.60.2
14.0 to 14.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.30.1
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.10.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.10.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0