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Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics Conference 2021

Joint ECB and Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Conference

Thursday, 7 and Friday, 8 October 2021
Online event (by invitation only)

This conference will bring together top researchers from academia, central banks and other policy institutions to present research findings related to inflation. Some of the topics of interest include, but are not limited to: inflation measurement, inflation expectations, structural drivers of inflation, the Phillips curve, wages and profits, and the pass-through of commodity prices to inflation.

Programme

Times are Central European Summer Time (UTC+2)

* indicates the presenter

Thursday, 7 October 2021
15:00

Opening remarks

Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank

15:15

Session 1: Price setting and inflation

Chair: Chiara Osbat, European Central Bank

 

Empirical investigation of a sufficient statistic for monetary shocks

  • Fernando Alvarez, University of Chicago
  • Andrea Ferrara*, Northwestern University
  • Erwan Gautier, Banque de France
  • Hervé Le Bihan, Banque de France and Banco de España
  • Francesco Lippi, LUISS University
 

Measuring price selection in microdata: it's not there

  • Peter Karadi*, European Central Bank
  • Raphael Schoenle, Brandeis University and Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
  • Jesse Wursten, KU Leuven
16:15
Break
16:30

Parallel paper session

Chair: Christiane Nickel, European Central Bank / Ed Knotek, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

 

Medium vs. short-term consumer inflation expectations: evidence from a new euro area survey

  • Ewa Stanisławska*, Narodowy Bank Polski
  • Maritta Paloviita, Suomen Pankki – Finlands Bank
 

Understanding persistent ZLB: theory and assessment

  • Pablo Cuba-Borda*, Federal Reserve Board
  • Sanjay Singh, University of California, Davis
 

New evidence on monetary transmission: interest rate versus inflation target shocks

 

Small price changes, sales volume, and menu cost

  • Daniel Levy, Bar-Ilan University, Emory University, ISET and RCEA
  • Doron Sayag, Bar-Ilan University
  • Avichai Snir*, Netanya Academic College
 

Public information and survey expectations

 

Do sticky wages matter? New evidence from matched firm-survey and register data

  • Anne Kathrin Funk*, KOF Swiss Economic Institute
  • Daniel Kaufmann, University of Neuchâtel
 

New facts on consumer price rigidity in the euro area

  • Erwan Gautier*, Banque de France
  • Cristina Conflitti, Banca d'Italia
  • Riemer Faber, Charles River Associates
  • Brian Fabo, Národná banka Slovenska
  • Ludmila Fadejeva, Latvijas Banka
  • Valentin Jouvanceau, Lietuvos bankas
  • Jan-Oliver Menz, Deutsche Bundesbank
  • Teresa Messner, Oesterreichische Nationalbank
  • Pavlos Petroulas, Bank of Greece
  • Pau Roldan-Blanco, Banco de España
  • Fabio Rumler, Oesterreichische Nationalbank
  • Sergio Santoro, Banca d'Italia
  • Elisabeth Wieland, Deutsche Bundesbank
  • Hélène Zimmer, Nationale Bank van België/Banque Nationale de Belgique
 

Endogenous growth, downward wage rigidities and optimal inflation

  • Agostino Consolo*, European Central Bank
  • Mirko Abbritti, Università degli Studi di Perugia
  • Sebastian Weber, International Monetary Fund
17:30
Break
17:45

Policy panel

Chair: Christiane Nickel, European Central Bank / Ed Knotek, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

  • Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank
  • Loretta J. Mester, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Moderator: Sabrina Marggraf, ntv

18:30

Session 2: Inflation expectations

Chair: Mathieu Pedemonte, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

 

The inflation expectations of US firms: evidence from a new survey

  • Bernardo Candia, University of California, Berkeley
  • Olivier Coibion, University of Texas, Austin
  • Yuriy Gorodnichenko*, University of California, Berkeley
 

Effective policy communication: targets versus instruments

  • Francesco D'Acunto, Boston College
  • Daniel Hoang, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
  • Maritta Paloviita, Suomen Pankki – Finlands Bank
  • Michael Weber*, University of Chicago
 

Selection in information acquisition and monetary non-neutrality

  • Hassan Afrouzi*, Columbia University
  • Choongryul Yang, Federal Reserve Board
20:00

End of day one

Friday, 8 October 2021
15:00

Keynote speech

Chair: Robert Rich, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

 

Average inflation targeting and household expectations

Olivier Coibion, University of Texas, Austin

15:45
Break
16:00

Session 3: Empirical models

Chair: Ed Knotek, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

 

Inflation at risk

  • Francesca Loria*, Federal Reserve Board
  • David Lopez-Salido, Federal Reserve Board
 

Long-run Phillips curve is... a curve: the long-run output gap, inflation and monetary policy

  • Guido Ascari, University of Oxford
  • Paolo Bonomolo*, De Nederlandsche Bank
  • Qazi Haque, The University of Adelaide
17:00
Break
17:15

Session 4: Structural Phillips curves

Chair: Raphael Schoenle, Brandeis University and Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

 

New pricing models, same old Phillips curves?

  • Adrien Auclert, Stanford University
  • Rodolfo Rigato, Harvard University
  • Matthew Rognlie, Northwestern University
  • Ludwig Straub*, Harvard University
 

Endogenous production networks and non-linear monetary transmission

Mishel Ghassibe*, University of Oxford

 

Aggregation and redistribution in new Keynesian economies

Elisa Rubbo*, Princeton University

18:45
Break
19:00

Keynote speech

Chair: Michele Lenza, European Central Bank

 

The slope of the Phillips curve: evidence from US states

Emi Nakamura, University of California, Berkeley

19:45

Concluding remarks by conference organisers

20:00
End of conference

Please note that this programme may be subject to change without notice.

The event may be filmed and the video recording, or parts of it, may be published on the internet/intranet.

General information

Venue

Online event

Conference language

English

Organising committee
  • Peter Karadi, European Central Bank
  • Ed Knotek, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
  • Michele Lenza, European Central Bank
  • Christiane Nickel, European Central Bank
  • Chiara Osbat, European Central Bank
  • Mathieu Pedemonte, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
  • Robert Rich, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
  • Raphael Schoenle, Brandeis University and Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Contact

Conference email address: inflation-conference2021@ecb.europa.eu

Linda de Leeuw
Directorate General Economics, European Central Bank
+49 69 1344 8650
linda.de_leeuw@ecb.europa.eu