Ei saatavilla suomeksi
Dilyara Salakhova
- 29 November 2023
- THE ECB BLOGEuropean firms need to invest in new technologies to reach carbon neutrality by 2050. This often requires them to take on debt. But what if a company is already highly leveraged? The ECB Blog looks at the relationship between firms’ indebtedness and their success in reducing emissions.Details
- JEL Code
- G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
G38 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Government Policy and Regulation
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
Q56 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Environment and Development, Environment and Trade, Sustainability, Environmental Accounts and Accounting, Environmental Equity, Population Growth
Q58 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Government Policy
Q01 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→General→Sustainable Development
- 7 November 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2867Details
- Abstract
- We compare networks constructed using five commonly used methods and publicly available daily market data to networks based on reported exposures along several dimensions of the balance sheet, i.e., loans, bonds, equity. Our findings suggest that while the global network structure remains stable, individual exposures are more dynamic. The main message from the regression analysis is that the market-based networks do their job relatively well, however, various market-based networks capture different types of exposures. All the measures reflect common portfolios of bonds and loans. Equity-based measures match better direct and indirect equity, while credit-risk measures capture direct bonds. None of the measures robustly identify direct interbank lending.
- JEL Code
- G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
L14 : Industrial Organization→Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance→Transactional Relationships, Contracts and Reputation, Networks
D85 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Network Formation and Analysis: Theory
C63 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→Computational Techniques, Simulation Modeling
- 10 May 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2813Details
- Abstract
- Using evidence from the EU emissions trading system, we collect verified emissions of close to 4000 highly polluting and mostly non-listed firms responsible for 26% of EU’s emissions. Over the period 2013 - 2019, we find a non-linear relationship between leverage and emissions. A firm with higher leverage has lower emissions in subsequent years. However, when leverage exceeds 50%, a further increase is associated with higher emissions. Our difference-in-differences approach sheds light on the existence of a group of firms that are too indebted to successfully accomplish the low-carbon transition, even when they face a steep increase in the cost of their emissions.
- JEL Code
- C58 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Financial Econometrics
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
Q51 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Valuation of Environmental Effects
Q56 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Environment and Development, Environment and Trade, Sustainability, Environmental Accounts and Accounting, Environmental Equity, Population Growth
Q58 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Government Policy
- 23 March 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2800Details
- Abstract
- During the March 2020 market turmoil, euro area money-market funds (MMFs) expe-rienced significant outflows, reaching almost 8% of assets under management. This paper investigates whether the volatility in MMF flows was driven by investors’ liquidity needs re-lated to derivative margin payments. We combine three highly granular unique data sources (EMIR data for derivatives, SHSS data for investor holdings of MMFs and Refinitiv Lip-per data for daily MMF flows) to construct a daily fund-level panel dataset spanning from February to April 2020. We estimate the effects of variation margin paid and received by the largest holders of EUR-denominated MMFs on flows of these MMFs. The main findings suggest that variation margin payments faced by some investors holding MMFs were an im-portant driver of the flows of EUR-denominated MMFs domiciled in euro area.
- JEL Code
- G13 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Contingent Pricing, Futures Pricing
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 14 November 2022
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2747Details
- Abstract
- Funds with an environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) mandate have been growing rapidly in recent years and received inflows also during periods of market turmoil, such as March 2020, in contrast to their non-ESG peers. This paper investigates whether investors in ESG funds react differently to past negative performance, making these funds less sensitive to short-term changes in returns. In the absence of an ESG-label, we define an ESG- or Environmentally-focused fund if its name contains relevant words. The results show that ESG/E equity and corporate bond funds exhibit a weaker flow-performance relationship compared to traditional funds in 2016-2020. This finding may reflect the longer-term investment horizon of ESG investors and their expectation of better risk-adjusted performance from ESG funds in the future. We also explore how the results vary across institutional and retail investors and how they depend on the liquidity of funds’ assets and wider market conditions. A weaker flow-performance relationship allows funds to provide a stable source of financing to the green transition and may reduce risks for financial stability, particularly during turmoil episodes.
- JEL Code
- G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
Q56 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Environment and Development, Environment and Trade, Sustainability, Environmental Accounts and Accounting, Environmental Equity, Population Growth
C58 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Financial Econometrics
- 22 September 2022
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2728Details
- Abstract
- The green bond market has increased rapidly in recent years amid growing concerns about climate change and wider environmental issues. However, whether green bonds provide cheaper funding to issuers by trading at a premium, so-called greenium, is still an open discussion. This paper provides evidence that a key factor explaining the greenium is the credibility of a green bond itself or that of its issuer. We define credible green bonds as those which have been under external review. Credible issuers are either firms in green sectors or banks signed up to UNEP FI. Another important factor is investors’ demand as the greenium becomes more statistically and economically significant over time. This is potentially driven by increased climate concerns as the green bond market follows a similar trend to that observed in ESG/green equity and investment fund sectors. To run our analysis, we construct a database of daily pricing data on closely matched green and non-green bonds of the same issuer in the euro area from 2016 to 2021. We then use Securities Holdings Statistics by Sector (SHSS) to analyse investors’ demand for green bonds.
- JEL Code
- G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G14 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Information and Market Efficiency, Event Studies, Insider Trading
Q50 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→General
A56 : General Economics and Teaching
- 13 June 2022
- MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - FOCUS - No. 17Details
- Abstract
- This special focus discusses how different segments of the financial sector, i.e. banks, insurers, pension funds, investment funds and hedge funds, react to stress scenarios similar to some of those observed at the onset of the pandemic. In our framework, different financial intermediaries interact in asset, funding and derivatives markets, and face solvency and liquidity constraints. The model is calibrated to the euro area and simulates two shocks, namely a deterioration in the corporate outlook and a large-scale rating downgrade of corporate bonds. It estimates balance-sheet losses for the main euro area financial sectors and the change in prices of marketable financial assets.
- JEL Code
- G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G18 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Government Policy and Regulation
G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G22 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Insurance, Insurance Companies, Actuarial Studies
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
G288 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 23 May 2022
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - ARTICLEFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2022Details
- Abstract
- The ECB is continuing its work on incorporating climate-related risks into assessments of financial stability. This includes a new analysis of disclosure, pricing and greenwashing risks in financial markets, as well as continued monitoring of financial institutions’ exposure to transition and physical risks. There is some encouraging evidence of better disclosure by non-financial corporations and increasing awareness of climate-related risks in financial markets. Progress made by banks, however, has been more limited. Established and newer metrics show no clear evidence of a reduction in climate-related risks, revealing instead a potential for amplification mechanisms stemming from exposure concentration, cross-hazard correlation and financial institutions’ overlapping portfolios. These findings can inform evidence-based international and European policy debates around climate-related corporate disclosure, standards for sustainable financial instruments and climate-related prudential policies. More generally, amid high uncertainty around governments’ transition policies in an environment of volatile energy prices, further investments in the transition to a net-zero economy would also have a positive impact on medium-term growth and energy security.
- JEL Code
- G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
G18 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Government Policy and Regulation
G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
Q51 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Valuation of Environmental Effects
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
- 26 April 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2022Details
- Abstract
- The price of emissions allowances traded on the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) has risen from below €10 per metric tonne of carbon to above €90 since the beginning of 2018. This box outlines the main reasons behind this increase and examines whether speculative activity may have played a significant role. It concludes that, at present, tangible evidence for a marked increase in speculative activity related to potential changes in market structure appears scarce. Furthermore, a speculation index suggests that, while speculation appears to have increased slightly since early 2019, it remains relatively moderate and well below readings during earlier phases of the ETS.
- JEL Code
- G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G14 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Information and Market Efficiency, Event Studies, Insider Trading
G38 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Government Policy and Regulation
- 19 October 2021
- MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - FOCUS - No. 15Details
- Abstract
- Green capital markets are growing rapidly while being more resilient and integrated than traditional markets. Enhancing market structures and standards will help decrease greenwashing risk and foster further growth in green finance and the transition towards carbon neutrality.
- JEL Code
- G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
Q56 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Environment and Development, Environment and Trade, Sustainability, Environmental Accounts and Accounting, Environmental Equity, Population Growth
- 6 August 2021
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2581Details
- Abstract
- This paper shows how the combined endogenous reaction of banks and investment funds to an exogenous shock can amplify or dampen losses to the financial system compared to results from single-sector stress testing models. We build a new model of contagion propagation using a very large and granular data set for the euro area. Based on the economic shock caused by the Covid-19 outbreak, we model three sources of exogenous shocks: a default shock, a market shock and a redemption shock. Our contagion mechanism operates through a dual channel of liquidity and solvency risk. The joint modelling of banks and funds provides new insights for the assessment of financial stability risks. Our analysis reveals that adding the fund sector to our model for banks leads to additional losses through fire sales and a further depletion of banks’ capital ratios by around one percentage point.
- JEL Code
- D85 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Network Formation and Analysis: Theory
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
L14 : Industrial Organization→Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance→Transactional Relationships, Contracts and Reputation, Networks
- 17 May 2021
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - ARTICLEFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2021Details
- Abstract
- The ECB has been intensifying its quantitative work aimed at capturing climate-related risks to financial stability. This includes estimating financial system exposures to climate-related risks, upgrading banking sector scenario analysis and monitoring developments in the financing of the green transition. Considerable progress has been made on capturing banking sector exposures to firms that are subject to physical risks from climate change. While data and methodological challenges are still a focus of ongoing debates, our analyses suggest (i) somewhat concentrated bank exposures to physical and transition risk drivers, (ii) a prevalence of exposures amongst more vulnerable banks and in specific regions, (iii) risk-mitigating potential for interactions across financial institutions, and (iv) strong inter-temporal dependency conditioning the interaction of transition and physical risks. At the same time, investor interest in “green finance” continues to grow – but so-called greenwashing concerns need to be addressed to foster efficient market mechanisms. Both the assessment of risks and the allocation of finance to support the orderly transition to a more sustainable economy can benefit from enhanced disclosures, including of firms’ forward-looking emission targets, better data and strengthened risk assessment methodologies, among other things.
- JEL Code
- G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
G18 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Government Policy and Regulation
G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
- 25 November 2020
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2020Details
- Abstract
- In the most turbulent week during the coronavirus-related market turmoil in March 2020, euro-denominated money market funds experienced very high outflows. But which investors withdrew from these funds and why did they do so? This box suggests that the increase in variation margin on derivatives contracts held by euro area insurance corporations and pension funds was one of the key drivers behind these outflows.
- JEL Code
- G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G22 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Insurance, Insurance Companies, Actuarial Studies
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
- 24 November 2020
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2020Details
- Abstract
- Green financial markets are growing rapidly. Funds with an environmental, social and corporate governance mandate have grown by 170% since 2015 and 57% of them are domiciled in the euro area. The outstanding amount of green bonds issued by euro area residents has grown ten-fold over the same period. The large flows into ESG funds and green assets are expected to be sustained over time by increasing concerns around climate change, a gradual generational transfer of wealth towards millennials, and better disclosure and understanding of ESG risks. Given the financial stability risks from climate change, this box aims to understand the performance of such products and their potential for greening the economy. It focuses on the resilience of ESG funds and the absence of a consistent “greenium” – a lower yield for green bonds compared with conventional bonds of similar risk profile – reflecting the fact that green projects do not enjoy benefit from cheaper financing.
- JEL Code
- G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
Q56 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Environment and Development, Environment and Trade, Sustainability, Environmental Accounts and Accounting, Environmental Equity, Population Growth