Ei saatavilla suomeksi
Gianluca Vagliano
- 11 October 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2855Details
- Abstract
- The Banking Euro Area Stress Test (BEAST) is a large-scale semi-structural model developed to analyse the euro area banking system from a macroprudential perspective. The model combines the dynamics of approximately 90 of the largest euro area banks with those of individual euro area economies. It reflects the heterogeneity of banks by replicat-ing the structure of their balance sheets and profit and loss accounts. Additionally, it allows banks to adjust their assets, funding mix, pricing decisions, management buffers, and profit distribution along with individual bank conditions, including their capital and liquidity re-quirements, and other supervisory limits. The responses of banks impact credit supply con-ditions and have feedback effects on the macroeconomic environment. Stochastic solutions of the model provide a solid foundation for investigating multiple scenarios, deriving at-risk measures, and estimating model uncertainty. The model is regularly utilised to assess the resilience of the euro area banking sector, including in the biennial ECB macroprudential stress tests, as well as to analyse the effects of regulatory, macroprudential, and monetary policy changes.
- JEL Code
- E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 27 July 2022
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 297Details
- Abstract
- This paper looks at the macroeconomic impact of the two policies proposed by ECB Banking Supervision to tackle the high share of non-performing loans (NPLs) on the balance sheets of euro area banks. The first is the coverage expectations for new NPLs set out in the Addendum to the ECB’s NPL Guidance, which aim to prevent the build-up of new NPLs, and the second is the coverage expectations for legacy NPLs, which target the reduction of already existing stocks of NPLs. The impact assessment of the package is analysed via a semi-structural model, the Banking Euro Area Stress Test (BEAST). The coverage expectations for NPLs are found to be effective in reducing banks’ NPLs. The phase-in of the policies can temporarily reduce bank profitability owing to increased loan loss provisioning targets. However, over a longer time horizon, lower NPL ratios reduce uncertainty and enable banks to access cheaper funding in the markets, ultimately benefiting lending and output growth. Furthermore, the coverage expectations can also moderately but persistently reduce procyclicality in the banking system.
- JEL Code
- E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 23 July 2021
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 258Details
- Abstract
- This paper assesses the macroeconomic implications of the Basel III finalisation for the euro area, employing a large-scale semi-structural model encompassing over 90 banks and 19-euro area economies. The new regulatory framework will influence banks’ reactions to economic conditions and, as a result, affect the ability of the banking system to amplify or dampen economic shocks. The assessment covers the entire distribution of conditional economic predictions to measure the cost and benefit of the reforms. Looking at the means of conditional forecasts of output growth provides an indication of the costs of the reform, namely a transitory reduction in euro area gross domestic product (GDP) and in lending to the non-financial private sector. Looking at the lower percentile of output growth forecasts, i.e. growth at risk, captures the long-term benefits of the Basel III finalisation package in terms of improved resilience and the ability of the banking system to supply lending to the real economy under adverse conditions. These permanent growth-at-risk benefits ultimately outweigh the short-term costs of the reform.
- JEL Code
- E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation