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2008 Q4

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2008 Q4 inflation forecasts
  2008 2009 2010 Sep. 2009 Sep. 2010 2013
Mean point estimate 3.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0
Standard deviation 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1
Number of replies 56 56 48 50 43 45
Probability distributions 2008 2009 2010 Sep. 2009 Sep. 2010 2013
<0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.10.2
0.0-0.4% 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.1 0.90.7
0.5-0.9% 0.0 1.4 2.0 3.7 2.93.0
1.0-1.4% 0.0 6.9 9.2 12.4 10.49.4
1.5-1.9% 0.1 26.0 34.2 34.3 32.829.6
2.0-2.4% 0.2 38.8 36.9 29.9 34.838.4
2.5-2.9% 4.1 20.4 13.1 12.2 13.912.8
3.0-3.4% 50.9 5.2 3.2 4.2 3.24.2
3.5-3.9% 43.7 0.7 0.8 1.6 0.81.3
>4.0% 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.10.3
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2008 Q4 real GDP growth forecasts
  2008 2009 2010 2009 Q2 2010 Q2 2013
Mean point estimate 1.2 0.3 1.4 0.1 1.2 2.0
Standard deviation 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3
Number of replies 56 56 49 49 43 46
Probability distributions 2008 2009 2010 2009 Q2 2010 Q2 2013
<-1.0% 0.0 1.9 0.5 3.1 0.70.1
-1.0--0.6% 0.0 6.0 1.8 11.0 2.20.2
-0.5--0.1% 0.1 20.8 2.9 26.8 3.80.7
0.0-0.4% 1.9 33.3 6.5 30.3 8.81.9
0.5-0.9% 20.0 25.5 16.0 18.7 19.55.3
1.0-1.4% 63.6 9.9 30.8 7.8 29.211.1
1.5-1.9% 12.6 2.2 28.6 1.9 22.928.3
2.0-2.4% 1.6 0.4 10.0 0.4 9.332.4
2.5-2.9% 0.2 0.1 2.4 0.1 2.714.6
3.0-3.4% 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.73.8
3.5-3.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.21.2
>4.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2008 Q4 unemployment rate forecasts
  2008 2009 2010 Aug. 2009 Aug. 2010 2013
Mean point estimate 7.4 8.0 8.1 8.1 8.1 7.1
Standard deviation 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.4
Number of replies 54 54 49 46 38 43
Probability distributions 2008 2009 2010 Aug. 2009 Aug. 2010 2013
<5.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01.3
5.5-5.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.13.3
6.0-6.4% 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.98.2
6.5-6.9% 2.3 1.6 3.5 1.6 3.618.6
7.0-7.4% 52.0 11.4 12.5 8.4 11.427.7
7.5-7.9% 40.3 33.7 27.1 31.2 26.822.9
8.0-8.4% 4.4 35.1 29.9 35.1 30.012.0
8.5-8.9% 0.6 13.9 17.6 19.2 17.93.7
9.0-9.4% 0.0 3.2 5.5 3.3 5.61.7
9.5-9.9% 0.0 0.5 1.8 0.5 2.00.4
10.0-10.4% 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.1 1.10.1
10.5-10.9% 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.60.0
>11.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.10.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0