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Infliaciją atidžiai stebime

Infliaciją stebime labai atidžiai, – interviu laikraščiui „Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung“ sakė Pirmininkė C. Lagarde. Nemanome, kad dabartinis aukštas infliacijos lygis ilgai laikysis, o padidinus palūkanų normas dabar jų poveikis pasireikštų tik vėliau, kai infliacija turėtų būti ir taip sumažėjusi, –  taip pat pastebėjo Pirmininkė.

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Civil war declaration: On April 14th and 15th, 2012 Federal Republic of Germany "_urkenstaats"s parliament, Deutscher Bundestag, received a antifiscal written civil war declaration by Federal Republic of Germany "Rechtsstaat"s electronic resistance for human rights even though the "Widerstandsfall" according to article 20 paragraph 4 of the constitution, the "Grundgesetz", had been already declared in the years 2001-03. more

ATASKAITA 2021 11 25

Spalį vykusio posėdžio pinigų politikos klausimais ataskaita

Atsižvelgdama į finansavimo sąlygas ir infliacijos perspektyvą, Valdančioji taryba priėmė sprendimą turto pirkimus ir toliau vykdyti lėtesniu tempu nei ankstesnius du ketvirčius ir dar kartą patvirtino kitas politikos priemones.

Ataskaita
KALBA 2021 11 25

Klimato kaita ir įstatymai

Panašiai kaip centriniai bankai ir priežiūros institucijos, visi ES teisinės sistemos dalyviai taip pat turi suvokti, kad reaguojant į klimato kaitą pagal savo įgaliojimus jiems tenka bendras vaidmuo ir atsakomybė, – sako Vykdomosios valdybos narys Frankas Eldersonas.

Kalba
PAAIŠKINIMAI 2021 11 16

Kodėl šiuo metu infliacija tokia didelė?

Po keleto labai nedidelės infliacijos metų kainos euro zonoje kyla sparčiausiu per daugiau nei pastarąjį dešimtmetį tempu. Kodėl tai vyksta ir kaip tai susiję su sausromis Brazilijoje, laivybos konteineriais ir pandemija? Sužinokite, kokią infliacijos raidą numatome kitais metais.

Paaiškinimas
26 November 2021
Keynote speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the ECB Legal Conference 2021
25 November 2021
Speech by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, ECB Legal Conference 2021
25 November 2021
Presentation by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a meeting organised by Wirtschaftsrat der CDU
24 November 2021
Presentation by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a Youth Dialogue hosted by the University of Sofia
24 November 2021
Speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Sciences Po
English
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Annexes
24 November 2021
26 November 2021
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Gerald Braunberger, Dennis Kremer and Christian Siedenbiedel on 23 November and published on 26 November 2021
English
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23 November 2021
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Carolynn Look and Alexander Weber on 22 and published on 23 November 2021
8 November 2021
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Lluís Pellícer on 3 November 2021
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3 November 2021
Interview with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, conducted by Francine Lacqua, Bloomberg TV, on 2 November
24 September 2021
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Annette Weisbach, CNBC, on 23 September
19 November 2021
Blog post by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB
Details
Summary
To continue playing its role as the anchor of the monetary system, central bank money will need to respond to evolving needs, says Executive Board member Fabio Panetta. This means that we must intensify the work on central bank digital currencies.
4 November 2021
Blog post by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB
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Summary
The COP26 summit is a vital opportunity to set out a clear path towards a zero-carbon world, President Lagarde writes in a blog post. While the road ahead may seem daunting, she argues that a credible transition path will need clear signposts to break it up into more manageable stages.
14 September 2021
Blog post by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB
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Summary
While rising inflation understandably worries people, current inflation rates should be interpreted with caution, writes Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel.
31 August 2021
Contribution by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, to the International Monetary Fund’s magazine Finance and Development
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Summary
The existential threat posed by climate change implies that central banks must not stand on the sidelines in the fight against global warming, writes Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel. Our ambitious climate action plan outlines how the ECB will contribute within its mandate.
19 August 2021
Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB
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Summary
Our revised forward guidance is a fundamental step in fulfilling our commitment to 2% inflation, writes Chief Economist Philip R. Lane. He also discusses the three conditions that should be met before interest rates are raised.
26 November 2021
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2617
Details
Abstract
Price inflation in the euro area has been stable and low since the Global Financial Crisis, despite notable changes in output and unemployment. We show that an increasing share of high markup firms is part of the explanation of why inflation remained stubbornly stable and low in the euro area over the past two decades. For this purpose, we exploit a rich firm-level database to show that over the period 1995–2018 the aggregate markup in the euro area has been on the rise, mainly on account of a reallocation towards high-markup firms. We document significant heterogeneity in markups across sectors and countries and, by linking these markup developments to the evolution of sectoral level producer and consumer price inflation, we find that (i) inflation in high-markup sectors tends to be less volatile than in low-markup sectors and (ii) inflation in high-markup sectors responds significantly less to oil supply, global demand and euro area monetary policy shocks.
JEL Code
D2 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations
D4 : Microeconomics→Market Structure and Pricing
N1 : Economic History→Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics, Industrial Structure, Growth, Fluctuations
O3 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights
Network
Price Micro Setting Analysis Network (PRISMA)
25 November 2021
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2616
Details
Abstract
This paper shows that newspaper articles contain timely economic signals that can materially improve nowcasts of real GDP growth for the euro area. Our text data is drawn from fifteen popular European newspapers, that collectively represent the four largest Euro area economies, and are machine translated into English. Daily sentiment metrics are created from these news articles and we assess their value for nowcasting. By comparing to competitive and rigorous benchmarks, we find that newspaper text is helpful in nowcasting GDP growth especially in the first half of the quarter when other lower-frequency soft indicators are not available. The choice of the sentiment measure matters when tracking economic shocks such as the Great Recession and the Great Lockdown. Non-linear machine learning models can help capture extreme movements in growth, but require sufficient training data in order to be effective so become more useful later in our sample.
JEL Code
C43 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics→Index Numbers and Aggregation
C45 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics→Neural Networks and Related Topics
C55 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Modeling with Large Data Sets?
C82 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data, Data Access
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
25 November 2021
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2615
Details
Abstract
To what extent can Quantitative Easing impact productivity growth? We document a strong and heterogeneous response of corporate R&D investment to changes in debt financing conditions induced by corporate debt purchases under the ECB’s Corporate Sector Purchase Program. Companies eligible for the program increase significantly their investment in R&D, relative to similar ineligible companies operating in the same country and sector. The evidence further suggests that by subsidizing the cost of debt, corporate bond purchases by the central bank stimulate innovation through a wealth transfer to innovative companies with low debt levels, rather than by supporting credit constrained firms.
JEL Code
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
O3 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights
24 November 2021
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 285
Details
Abstract
Climate change has profound effects not only for societies and economies, but also for central banks’ ability to deliver price stability in the future. This paper starts by documenting why climate change matters for monetary policy: it impacts the economic variables relevant to setting the monetary policy stance, it interacts with fiscal and structural responses and it can generate dislocations in financial markets, which are impossible for monetary policy to ignore. Next, we survey several possible ways central banks can respond to climate change. These range from protective actions to more proactive measures aimed at mitigating climate change and supporting green finance and the transition to sustainable growth. We also discuss the constraints and trade-offs faced by central banks as they respond to climate risks. Finally, focusing on the specific challenges faced by inflation-targeting central banks, we consider how certain design features of this regime might interact with, and evolve in response to, the climate challenge.
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
24 November 2021
SURVEY ON THE ACCESS TO FINANCE OF ENTERPRISES IN THE EURO AREA
24 November 2021
RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 89
Details
Abstract
The outbreak of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic led to heightened uncertainty and a “dash-for-cash” in March 2020. Investors moved out of risky assets and into safe assets. The mutual fund sector in particular was hit by unprecedented investor redemptions and faced fire sale pressure as a result. Typically, banks that engage in securities trading – dealer banks – absorb such bond sales, supporting market liquidity, but regulation may limit their ability to do so by requiring them to maintain a certain leverage ratio. In recent research, we analyse the role of bank leverage constraints as an amplifier of bond market illiquidity during the March 2020 crisis. Our analysis links mutual funds bond holdings to dealer banks and their leverage constraints. We document that mutual funds that were holding more bonds exposed to dealer bank constraints in their portfolio faced bigger selling pressure in March 2020. We provide supplementary evidence that bank leverage constraints affect bond liquidity, using the introduction of leverage ratio regulation in the euro area.
JEL Code
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G18 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Government Policy and Regulation
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
22 November 2021
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2614
Details
Abstract
We develop early warning models for financial crisis prediction by applying machine learning techniques to macrofinancial data for 17 countries over 1870–2016. Most nonlin-ear machine learning models outperform logistic regression in out-of-sample predictions and forecasting. We identify economic drivers of our machine learning models using a novel framework based on Shapley values, uncovering nonlinear relationships between the predic-tors and crisis risk. Throughout, the most important predictors are credit growth and the slope of the yield curve, both domestically and globally. A flat or inverted yield curve is of most concern when nominal interest rates are low and credit growth is high.
JEL Code
C40 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics→General
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
F30 : International Economics→International Finance→General
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
19 November 2021
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2613
Details
Abstract
We quantify spillbacks from US monetary policy based on structural scenario analysis and minimum relative entropy methods applied in a Bayesian proxy structural vector-autoregressive model estimated on data for the time period from 1990 to 2019. We find that spillbacks account for a non-trivial share of the overall slowdown in domestic real activity in response to a contractionary US monetary policy shock. Our analysis suggests that spillbacks materialise as Tobin’s q/cash flow and stock market wealth effects impinge on US investment and consumption. Contractionary US monetary policy depresses foreign sales of US firms, which reduces their valuations/cash flows and thereby induces cutbacks in investment. Similarly, as contractionary US monetary policy depresses US and foreign equity prices, the value of US households’ portfolios is reduced, which triggers a drop in consumption. Net trade does not contribute to spillbacks because US monetary policy affects exports and imports similarly. Finally, spillbacks materialise through advanced rather than emerging market economies, consistent with their relative importance in US firms’ foreign demand and US foreign equity holdings.
JEL Code
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
C50 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→General
18 November 2021
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2612
Details
Abstract
We build a novel macro-finance model that combines a semi-structural macroeconomic module with arbitrage-free yield-curve dynamics. We estimate it for the United States and the euro area using a Bayesian approach and jointly infer the real equilibrium interest rate (r*), trend inflation (π*), and term premia. Similar to Bauer and Rudebusch (2020, AER), π* and r* constitute a time-varying trend for the nominal short-term rate in our model, rendering estimated term premia more stable than standard yield curve models operating with time-invariant means. In line with the literature, our r* estimates display a distinct decline over the last four decades.
JEL Code
C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
17 November 2021
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW
17 November 2021
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOX
Financial Stability Review Issue 2, 2021
Details
Abstract
Investment banking revenues have contributed markedly to the recent increase in euro area banks’ non-interest income growth and the rebound in bank profitability. Internationally, equity capital market (ECM) revenue has doubled in the last three years, while debt capital market (DCM) and merger and acquisition (M&A) revenue has increased by around 50%, with only syndicated lending remaining more subdued. In the euro area, however, the most significant volume increase has come from debt instruments, which have long been the preferred source of corporate funding in the euro area ahead of equity. Despite the international growth in capital market volumes, market commentary before the pandemic suggested that investment banking was the “problem child” of European banking, with many large banks retreating from various market segments as they faced the fallout from the global financial crisis. Against this background, this box considers the recent developments in investment banking of euro area banks in relation to some of the prior trends and considers how sustainable the recent strength might be.
JEL Code
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G24 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Investment Banking, Venture Capital, Brokerage, Ratings and Ratings Agencies
:
17 November 2021
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOX
Financial Stability Review Issue 2, 2021
Details
Abstract
This box establishes stylised facts about the significant increase in initial margin (IM) in the euro area derivatives market during the March 2020 market turmoil. First, it shows that the increase was concentrated almost entirely in centrally cleared derivatives and driven mainly by equity, credit and interest rate portfolios. Second, by comparing static portfolios with those where portfolio repositioning took place, the IM increase is decomposed into (i) changes attributable to the CCP model sensitivity to market volatility, and (ii) changes attributable to portfolio repositioning by investors. For centrally cleared interest rate and credit derivatives (where this method is applicable), CCP model sensitivity to market volatility is found to be a key driver of the IM increase. Overall, the results suggest that it is important to develop a clearer understanding of “excessive procyclicality” for IM and possibly, on the basis of this common understanding, to review the models which CCPs use to calibrate IMs. The supervisory and regulatory framework governing the liquidity management of market participants, and in particular that of some non-bank financial intermediaries, should also be strengthened.
JEL Code
C60 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→General
G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
G13 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Contingent Pricing, Futures Pricing
17 November 2021
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOX
Financial Stability Review Issue 2, 2021
Details
Abstract
The box reviews the role of financial stability in the ECB’s new monetary policy strategy and summarises the underlying analytical considerations. Financial stability is a precondition for price stability and vice versa. Accordingly, the pursuit of price stability by means of monetary policy, and of financial stability by means of macro-prudential, supervisory and regulatory policies, are complementary. For example, a build-up of financial imbalances increases the likelihood of future financial crises, with a negative impact on price stability. Addressing these vulnerabilities with adequate marcro-prudential measures is also beneficial for price stability. Similarly, monetary policy may also affect financial stability risks: it can reduce credit risk by boosting activity levels and inflation dynamics but at times may also encourage the build-up of leverage or raise the sensitivity of asset prices. In view of the price stability risks arising in financial crises, there is a clear conceptual case for the ECB to take financial stability considerations into account in its monetary policy deliberations. This does not imply that monetary policy is responsible for guaranteeing financial stability or lessen the role of macro-prudential policies as a first line of defence against financial vulnerabilities. Accordingly, the ECB’s new monetary policy strategy envisages a flexible approach in considering financial stability whenever this is relevant to the pursuit of price stability.
JEL Code
E3, E44, G01, G21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
17 November 2021
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOX
Financial Stability Review Issue 2, 2021
Details
Abstract
In order to assess the strength of the current residential real estate expansion, we compare recent developments in euro area housing markets with the period ahead of the global financial crisis (GFC). We find that house price dynamics, overvaluation and the risk profile of new mortgage loans are at similar levels to those observed during the height of the pre-GFC cycle in 2007. However, vulnerabilities from mortgage lending developments and household balance sheets are currently below their pre-GFC levels. We conclude that the continued build-up of vulnerabilities in residential real estate markets calls for close monitoring and possible macroprudential measures.
JEL Code
R31 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Housing Supply and Markets
G51 : Financial Economics
P34 : Economic Systems→Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions→Financial Economics
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
17 November 2021
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOX
Financial Stability Review Issue 2, 2021
Details
Abstract
Using a Bayesian vector autoregression model and drawing from a novel quarterly dataset on debt financing of non-financial corporations, this box estimates the effects of loan and market-based credit supply shocks on GDP growth in the euro area and the five largest euro area countries. A novel identification scheme with inequality restrictions is developed to distinguish between the two types of credit supply shock. The results suggest that not only loan supply but also market-based credit supply shocks play an important role for GDP growth. For the euro area as a whole, the explanatory power of both types of credit supply shock is found to be similar, while in Germany and France the explanatory power of market-based credit supply shocks exceeds that of loan supply shocks. Since market-based credit is mostly provided by non-bank financial intermediaries, the findings also suggest that strengthening the resilience of these intermediaries – such as through an enhanced macroprudential framework – would support GDP growth.
JEL Code
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
G2 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services
17 November 2021
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - ARTICLE
Financial Stability Review Issue 2, 2021
Details
Abstract
Numerous European and national initiatives have been deployed since 2014 to reduce non-performing loan (NPL) stocks on euro area bank balance sheets. NPL ratios have fallen as a result, but very gradually, mainly thanks to sales to non-bank investors. Despite stronger market activity, prices paid by NPL investors have only improved marginally and continue to stand well below values assigned to NPLs by banks. One type of NPL that has proven particularly difficult to resolve is loans to non-financial firms that have borrowed from multiple banks – multi-creditor loans. Analysis of these loans relative to others finds lower provision coverage by the lending banks, reflecting more optimistic valuations by individual banks and limited recognition of the expected costs of multi-creditor coordination. This special feature proposes a strategy to overcome creditor coordination failures and costs, through the use of data platforms providing ex ante transparency to NPL investors. These, together with NPL securitisation, could substantially reduce the gap between the value of the loans booked on banks’ balance sheets and the prices offered by investors for NPL portfolios.
JEL Code
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
17 November 2021
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - ARTICLE
Financial Stability Review Issue 2, 2021
Details
Abstract
Bank capital buffers are supposed to help banks to absorb losses while maintaining the provision of key financial services to the real economy in times of stress. Capital buffers that are usable along these lines should lessen the damaging effects that can arise from credit supply shortages. Making use of buffers entails using the capital space above regulatory buffers and minimum requirements and, in case of need, also using regulatory buffers. This special feature analyses bank lending behaviour during the pandemic to gain insights into banks’ propensity to use capital buffers and the impact of the regulatory capital relief measures implemented by the authorities. From a macro perspective, the euro area banking system was able to meet credit demand and withstand stress. However, this aggregate view reflects several factors, including the impact of extraordinary policy measures. A micro perspective thus can help to comprehend how the capital buffer framework and capital releases affected banks’ behaviour during the pandemic. A microeconometric analysis shows that the banks with limited capital space above regulatory buffers adjusted their balance sheets by reducing lending, which could be interpreted as an attempt to defend capital ratios, suggesting unwillingness to use capital buffers. The results also show that the regulatory capital relief measures adopted during in the pandemic, which added to banks’ existing capital space, were associated with higher credit supply. while more research is desirable, this suggests that more releasable capital could enhance macroprudential authorities’ ability to act countercyclically when a crisis occurs.
JEL Code
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E41 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Demand for Money
17 November 2021
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOX
Financial Stability Review Issue 2, 2021
Details
Abstract
Euro area sovereigns have issued significant amounts of new debt in response to the pandemic. While fiscal support was crucial to limit economic scarring and aid the recovery, it has also triggered concerns about medium to longer-term sovereign debt sustainability. One of the key factors for assessing sovereign debt sustainability is the interest rate-growth differential (
JEL Code
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E6 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
H62 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Deficit, Surplus
H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management, Sovereign Debt
H68 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
17 November 2021
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOX
Financial Stability Review Issue 2, 2021
Details
Abstract
The ECB’s biennial macroprudential stress test evaluates the resilience of the euro area banking system, this year also assessing the impact of pandemic-related policy measures. While relying on the same adverse and baseline scenarios as the EBA/SSM supervisory stress test, it also employs a dynamic balance sheet perspective and introduces amplification mechanisms relying on the banking euro area stress test model framework as outlined in Budnik et al. (2020). The results indicate a strong bank capitalisation under the baseline scenario combined with a subdued outlook for bank profitability. The lending outlook differs sharply for the two scenarios where policy support measures have a clear positive effect, especially in the adverse scenario, and have helped to ensure the resilience of the financial system.
JEL Code
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
17 November 2021
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOX
Financial Stability Review Issue 2, 2021
Details
Abstract
The market capitalisation of stablecoins has increased from USD 5 billion to USD 120 billion since 2020. Despite their recent growth, stablecoins still only account for around 6% of the estimated USD 2 trillion total market capitalisation of crypto-assets, though interlinkages between stablecoins and crypto-assets imply a correlation of risks between these market segments. At the same time, the functions served by stablecoins within the ecosystem have multiplied. In addition to acting as a relatively safe “parking space” for crypto volatility, stablecoins serve as a bridge between fiat currencies and crypto-assets and are used for trading or as collateral in crypto-asset derivative transactions or in decentralised finance. Against this background of stablecoins’ interlinkages with the wider crypto-asset market and their direct links to the traditional financial system, this box analyses the risks associated with the evolving functions of stablecoins and the financial stability implications of such risks. It concludes that while stablecoins currently pose limited financial stability risks in the euro area, their growing size, usage and connected infrastructure may alter this assessment in the future. Nevertheless it highlights that the global reach of this market underscores the need for global standard-setting bodies to further assess the extent to which existing standards are appropriate for, and applicable to, stablecoins and close any gaps as necessary.
JEL Code
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
G13 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Contingent Pricing, Futures Pricing
G18 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Government Policy and Regulation
G28. : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation

Palūkanų normos

Ribinio skolinimosi galimybė 0.25 %
Pagrindinės refinansavimo operacijos (fiksuotosios palūkanų normos) 0.00 %
Indėlių galimybė − 0.50 %
2019 09 18 Ankstesnės ECB pagrindinės palūkanų normos

Infliacijos lygis

Infliacijos rodiklių suvestinė

Valiutų kursai

USD US dollar 1.1291
JPY Japanese yen 128.82
GBP Pound sterling 0.84620
CHF Swiss franc 1.0446
Atnaujinta 2021 11 26 Euro ir užsienio valiutų santykiai