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DISCOURS
16.12.2024
Vers des taux directeurs neutres
La politique monétaire doit être mise en œuvre de manière progressive et continuer de s’appuyer sur les données, déclare Isabel Schnabel, membre du directoire de la BCE. Une fois la stabilité des prix rétablie, les banques centrales pourront accepter de légers écarts, dans les deux sens, de l’inflation par rapport à l’objectif.
Lire le discours d’Isabel Schnabel
POLITIQUE MONÉTAIRE
12.12.2024
Dernière conférence de presse de la BCE
La présidente de la BCE, Christine Lagarde, et le vice-président, Luis de Guindos, ont commenté les décisions de politique monétaire du Conseil des gouverneurs et répondu aux questions des journalistes lors d’une conférence de presse.
En savoir plus
LE BLOG DE LA BCE
16.12.2024
Le triangle de l’inflation
Si l’inflation globale s’est fortement ralentie, l’inflation intérieure reste résolument élevée, ce qui est typique des cycles de resserrement de la politique monétaire. Pour comprendre ce phénomène, le blog de la BCE s’intéresse à la transmission de la politique monétaire à travers les salaires, les bénéfices et la productivité.
Lire l’article de blog- 17 December 2024
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 17 December 2024
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 13 December 2024
- GOVERNING COUNCIL DECISIONS - OTHER DECISIONSEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 12 December 2024
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 12 December 2024
- COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
- 12 December 2024
- MONETARY POLICY STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 10 December 2024
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 10 December 2024
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 4 December 2024
- PRESS RELEASERelated
- 23 July 2024
- PAGE
- 16 December 2024
- Keynote speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the CEPR Paris Symposium 2024 hosted by the Banque de FranceAnnexes
- 16 December 2024
- 16 December 2024
- Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Bank of Lithuania’s Annual Economics Conference on “Pillars of Resilience Amid Global Geopolitical Shifts”, on the occasion of the 10th anniversary of euro introduction, Vilnius, Lithuania
- 12 December 2024
- Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 12 December 2024EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 12 December 2024
- 12 December 2024
- EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 4 December 2024
- Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European ParliamentAnnexes
- 4 December 2024
- 4 December 2024
- 4 December 2024
- Presentation by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the VII Conference on behavioural financial regulations and policies organised by the Herbert Simon Society
- 4 December 2024
- Contribution by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB to The Economist
- 28 November 2024
- Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Roula Khalaf, Patrick Jenkins and Olaf Storbeck on 25 November 2024
- 27 November 2024
- Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Mark Schrörs and Alexander Weber on 25 November 2024
- 26 November 2024
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Petri Sajari
- 25 November 2024
- Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Guillaume Benoit on 19 November 2024
- 16 December 2024
- Though overall inflation has come down a lot, domestic inflation remains stubbornly high. This is typical for monetary policy tightening cycles. To understand why, The ECB Blog looks at how monetary policy is transmitted to wages, profits and productivity.Details
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
E47 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 3 December 2024
- At the height of the financial crisis Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Cyprus needed help. The international assistance came under the condition of economic adjustment aiming to restore financial stability, debt sustainability and growth. How did the four countries recover from their crises?
- 28 November 2024
- The European Commission is seeking the views of stakeholders on policies to guard against the build-up of systemic risk in the financial sector beyond banks. This ECB Blog post describes the pillars of a macroprudential approach for the so-called non-bank financial sector and explains the need to further develop the policy framework.Details
- JEL Code
- G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 19 November 2024
- Meeting the EU’s climate neutrality targets calls for deep structural changes and significant private funding, requiring a healthy financial system. That’s why we’ve tested how resilient banks, investment funds and insurers are to stresses arising during the green transition. ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos explains the findings.Related
- 19 November 2024
- 19 November 2024
- 14 November 2024
- The Eurosystem has started to reduce its bond holdings. This ECB Blog post investigates how strongly the shrinking balance sheet affects long-term interest rates. Estimates based on the Survey of Monetary Analysts suggest: an expected €1 trillion reduction in bond holdings may raise long-term risk-free interest rates by about 35 bps.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 17 December 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3006Details
- Abstract
- Trust in the central bank is an essential ingredient for a successful conduct of monetary policy. However, for many central banks trust has recently declined, for instance in the wake of the post-pandemic inflation surge, due to large errors in central banks’ inflation forecasts, or given problems when exiting from forward guidance. The rapid, substantial and persistent erosion of trust makes it clear that trust needs to be earned continuously. This paper reviews why trust is important, what determines it and how central banks can enhance it. It also argues that it is important for central banks to improve the measurement and monitoring of trust. It ends by highlighting some future challenges for maintaining trust.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G53 : Financial Economics
- 16 December 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3005Details
- Abstract
- Adaptation needs are vast, rising fast and difficult to determine in their entirety, especially with uncertain adverse scenarios due to climate inertia and implementation lags. Adaptation is hindered by a lack of a unified understanding of what it necessitates; the challenge in pointing out its costs, benefits, and residual risks; insufficiently prescriptive policy and legal frameworks; and the growing financing gap. Conversely, we now have better granular climate data to study the impacts of climate hazards and forecast climate risks; there is awareness that adaptation choices must be dynamic and reactive; and there is an increasing pool of case studies from which to learn. There is evidence that efficient adaptation investments can yield “triple-dividends” helping to close the financing gap. There is a need to absorb and smooth the impacts of rising extreme climate events. Innovative financial instruments, such as catastrophe bonds and climate bonds, might support challenged insurance coverages.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
- 16 December 2024
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 364Details
- Abstract
- This paper looks back on the 25-year history of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). Since its launch in the first quarter of 1999, it has served as an important input for policymaking and analysis, especially over the past five years, where the euro area has, following a period of low inflation, navigated a global pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and an unprecedented surge in inflation. The survey has evolved over time and provides not only a long time series of economic expectations and forecasts, but also valuable insights on key topical issues and on economic risks and uncertainties. We show that, for each of the three main macroeconomic variables forecast – HICP inflation, real GDP growth and the unemployment rate – the track record of the ECB SPF in forecasting has been broadly comparable to that of the Eurosystem. In addition, its combination of quantitative point forecasts and probability distributions with qualitative explanations has provided useful input for macroeconomic analysis. Beyond analyses of the forecasts for the main macroeconomic variables, there are also two further sections that examine the technical assumptions (oil prices, policy rates, exchange rates and wages) underlying SPF expectations and an analysis and assessment of measures of macroeconomic uncertainty. Technical assumptions are shown to account for the lion’s share of the variance in the inflation forecast errors, while uncertainty is shown to have increased considerably relative to that which prevailed during the early years of the SPF (1999-2008). Looking ahead, the SPF – with its long track record, its large and broad panel (spanning both financial and non-financial forecasters) and committed panellists – will undoubtedly continue to provide timely and useful insights for the ECB’s policymakers, macroeconomic experts, economic researchers and the wider public.
- JEL Code
- D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E66 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General Outlook and Conditions
- 16 December 2024
- SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS - AGGREGATE RESULTS
- 16 December 2024
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 126Details
- Abstract
- The “doom loop” or “sovereign-bank nexus” has been a key factor in the European debt crisis, driven by feedback between fiscal sustainability risks and financial stability. This Research Bulletin revisits the doom loop, examining strategic default incentives and the unintended effects of policy interventions. While limiting banks’ exposure to sovereign debt can break the doom loop, it may increase default risks by weakening governments’ repayment incentives. Similarly, measures like the ECB’s Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) or European Safe Bonds (ESBies) can mitigate the doom loop but might introduce new vulnerabilities, requiring precise calibration. Counterintuitively, allowing banks to increase sovereign bond holdings during crises may stabilise markets by reducing default incentives. These findings underscore the complex trade-offs and the need for nuanced policy design at both national and monetary union levels.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E6 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
F34 : International Economics→International Finance→International Lending and Debt Problems
- 13 December 2024
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 13 December 2024
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 13 December 2024
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 13 December 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3004Details
- Abstract
- We provide a versatile nowcasting toolbox that supports three model classes (dynamic factor models, large Bayesian VAR, bridge equations) and offers methods to manage data selection and adjust for Covid-19 observations. The toolbox aims at simplifying two key tasks: creating new nowcasting models and improving the policy analysis. For model creation, the toolbox automatizes testing input variables, assessing model accuracy, and checking robustness to the Covid period. The toolbox is organized along a structured three-step approach: variable pre-selection, model selection, and Covid robustness. Non-specialists can easily follow these steps to develop high-performing models, while experts can leverage the automated tests and analyses. For regular policy use, the toolbox generates a large range of outputs to aid conjunctural analysis like news decomposition, confidence bands, alternative forecasts, and heatmaps. These multiple outputs aim at opening the "black box" often associated with nowcasts and at gauging the reliability of real-time predictions. We showcase the toolbox features to create a nowcasting model for global GDP growth. Overall, the toolbox aims at facilitating creation, evaluation, and deployment of nowcasting models. Code and templates are available on GitHub: https://github.com/baptiste-meunier/Nowcasting_toolbox.
- JEL Code
- C22 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
C51 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Model Construction and Estimation
C52 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
C55 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Modeling with Large Data Sets?
- 13 December 2024
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 363Details
- Abstract
- Supervisory data are typically not conceived for statistical purposes or considered “official statistics”, but they are disclosed to the public, either directly by the supervised institutions or indirectly by the competent authorities. This disclosure is required under Pillar 3 of the Basel framework on banking supervision. The aim of the framework is to promote market discipline, whereby market participants monitor the risks and financial positions of banks and take action to guide, limit and price their risk-taking to safeguard financial stability. The disclosure of supervisory data is therefore a public good. In addition, supervisory data can be a reliable source for official statistics such as financial accounts. On the other hand, the nature of supervisory data differs from that of standard official statistics and its quality is subject to a robust assessment framework, with distinct particularities. The aim of this paper is to analyse the EU supervisory reporting framework from an institutional and policy perspective, in view of its potential and desirable evolution over time, including its possible integration with the statistical framework. The paper is split into three main parts. First, it describes the historical and current EU institutional settings, including the role of the European Banking Authority (EBA) reporting framework and the role of the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM), focusing on the data quality assessment framework and the publication of supervisory statistics. […]
- JEL Code
- C81 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data, Data Access
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
G38 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Government Policy and Regulation
- 13 December 2024
- LEGAL CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS
- 12 December 2024
- MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREAEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +Annexes
- 12 December 2024
- MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
- 4 December 2024
- INTEGRATED REPORTING FRAMEWORK DOCUMENT
- 3 December 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3003Details
- Abstract
- We document that about 33% of the core inflation basket in the euro area is sensitive to monetary policy shocks. We assess potential theoretical mechanisms driving the sensitivity. Our results suggest that items of a discretionary nature, as reflected in a higher share in the consumption baskets of richer households, and those with larger role of credit in financing their purchase, tend to be more sensitive.Non-sensitive items are more frequently subject to administered prices and include non-discretionary items such as rents and medical services. Energy intensity does not seem to drive our results and the sensitive items are not dominated by durable goods, but are relatively evenly split between goods and services. Estimations over different samples show that the impact of monetary policy shocks on sensitive core inflation has become larger recently.
- JEL Code
- E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
- 3 December 2024
- CONSULTATION RESPONSE
- 2 December 2024
- LETTERS TO MEPSRelated
- 2 December 2024
- DIGITAL EURO PREPARATION PHASE - PROGRESS REPORT
- 2 December 2024
- DIGITAL EURO PREPARATION PHASE - PROGRESS REPORTRelated
- 2 December 2024
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 2 December 2024
- PRESS RELEASE
- 2 December 2024
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 362Details
- Abstract
- This paper takes stock of the implementation of the NextGenerationEU (NGEU) programme in the euro area four years after its inception, focusing on its principal instrument, the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF). The paper provides an updated quantitative assessment of its past and future impact on the euro area economy, using a set of models and scenarios to account for the uncertainty that still surrounds the implementation of this programme. The public expenditures and structural reforms linked to the RRF have the potential to increase the level of euro area gross domestic product (GDP) by around 0.4-0.9% by 2026 and 0.8-1.2% by 2031, depending on capital productivity and the degree of absorption of RRF funds. The contribution of structural reforms to these output effects is expected to increase over time, while the initially prevailing impact of RRF-funded public expenditures fades away. We provide tentative empirical evidence that reforms have started to modestly improve the growth outlook of some euro area Member States by increasing their institutional quality. The expected long-run increase in output is in turn a key factor behind the decline in the government debt ratios we project for the main NGEU beneficiary euro area Member States. At the same time, we estimate that NGEU will have a limited impact on euro area inflation. Compared with previous ECB staff analysis published in 2022, the macroeconomic impact of NGEU, particularly on GDP and government debt ratios, is expected to shift over time due to widespread delays in the implementation of NGEU-linked expenditures and reforms. It is crucial that euro area Member States address implementation challenges over the remaining lifetime of this programme to fully reap its benefits.
- JEL Code
- C54 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Quantitative Policy Modeling
E02 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Institutions and the Macroeconomy
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
H87 : Public Economics→Miscellaneous Issues→International Fiscal Issues, International Public Goods
O52 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Europe
- 28 November 2024
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 125Details
- Abstract
- Negative economic shocks can cause waves of investor pessimism about the resilience of banks, which, in turn, generate additional adverse macroeconomic effects. This is commonly cited as an explanation for the economic havoc wrought by the global financial crisis of 2007-08. We introduce the notion of pessimism in a real business cycle model, which is a standard framework for business cycle analysis. The possibility of waves of pessimism generates countercyclical demand from banks for liquid assets (e.g., bank reserves). With the model, we study the macroeconomic effects of the government supplying liquid assets and find that a policy of accommodating banks’ demand is effective in stabilising the economy. Finally, we support this finding with empirical evidence.
- JEL Code
- E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E41 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Demand for Money
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 27 November 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3002Details
- Abstract
- The projected increase in extreme climate events in the coming decades is likely to exacerbate the existing productivity and demographic challenges facing Europe. We study the dynamic, medium-run macroeconomic effects of heatwaves, droughts and floods in 1160 EU regions through the lens of a local projections, difference in difference framework. Summer heatwaves and droughts lower medium-term output, but the impact from floods depends on regional income levels. High-income regions witness reconstruction activity, less wealthy regions do not. We find evidence of population decline in affected regions as well as adaptation spending post-event, which lowers regional productivity.
- JEL Code
- D24 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Production, Cost, Capital, Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity, Capacity
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J22 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Time Allocation and Labor Supply
R11 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→General Regional Economics→Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
Taux d’intérêt
| Facilité de prêt marginal | 3,40 % |
| Opérations principales de refinancement (à taux fixe) | 3,15 % |
| Facilité de dépôt | 3,00 % |
Taux d’inflation
En savoir plus sur l’inflationTaux de change
| USD | US dollar | 1.0497 | |
| JPY | Japanese yen | 161.63 | |
| GBP | Pound sterling | 0.82648 | |
| CHF | Swiss franc | 0.9413 |
Stabilité financière
Nos missions Cadre institutionnel Financial Stability Review Mesures de politique macroprudentielleOpérations de marché
Opérations d’open market Programmes d’achats d’actifs Prêt d’avoirs au titre du PSPPVOUS N’ÊTES PAS UN(E) EXPERT(E) ? LISEZ NOS NOTES EXPLICATIVES
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