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2009 Q2

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2009 Q2 inflation forecasts
  2009 2010 Mar. 2010 Mar. 2011 2013
Mean point estimate 0.5 1.3 1.2 1.6 1.9
Standard deviation 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6
Number of replies 50 49 46 40 41
Probability distributions 2009 2010 Mar. 2010 Mar. 2011 2013
<-2.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.00.0
-2.0 to -1.6% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.00.0
-1.5 to -1.1% 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.10.0
-1.0 to -0.6% 3.3 1.6 1.3 0.80.0
-0.5 to -0.1% 13.6 3.7 4.4 2.50.4
0.0 to 0.4% 35.0 8.5 10.5 5.21.7
0.5 to 0.9% 38.2 21.1 19.0 10.75.2
1.0 to 1.4% 8.2 31.1 30.6 22.513.2
1.5 to 1.9% 1.0 19.4 20.5 29.733.2
2.0 to 2.4% 0.1 9.6 10.2 19.028.4
2.5 to 2.9% 0.0 3.0 2.4 6.910.6
3.0 to 3.4% 0.0 1.1 0.3 1.94.1
3.5 to 3.9% 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.52.4
>4.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.20.8
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2009 Q2 real GDP growth forecasts
  2009 2010 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2013
Mean point estimate -3.4 0.2 -2.0 0.9 1.9
Standard deviation 0.6 0.6 1.2 0.6 0.4
Number of replies 51 50 47 46 43
Probability distributions 2009 2010 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2013
<-6.0% 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.00.0
-6.0 to -5.6% 1.0 0.0 0.3 0.00.0
-5.5 to -5.1% 2.6 0.0 0.8 0.00.0
-5.0 to -4.6% 6.0 0.0 1.5 0.00.0
-4.5 to -4.1% 11.2 0.0 2.0 0.00.0
-4.0 to -3.6% 21.3 0.1 3.7 0.00.0
-3.5 to -3.1% 26.6 0.5 8.4 0.10.0
-3.0 to -2.6% 18.0 0.7 15.4 0.30.0
-2.5 to -2.1% 9.4 1.3 21.5 0.50.0
-2.0 to -1.6% 2.3 2.5 16.2 0.70.0
-1.5 to -1.1% 0.7 4.8 8.0 1.70.1
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.2 9.5 6.1 3.20.6
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.1 17.7 4.9 8.31.3
0.0 to 0.4% 0.0 26.3 4.6 18.53.1
0.5 to 0.9% 0.0 19.9 3.1 25.07.8
1.0 to 1.4% 0.0 11.1 1.9 21.414.8
1.5 to 1.9% 0.0 3.8 0.9 12.229.4
2.0 to 2.4% 0.0 1.3 0.3 5.122.3
2.5 to 2.9% 0.0 0.5 0.0 2.010.9
3.0 to 3.4% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.55.1
3.5 to 3.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.23.0
>4.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.21.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2009 Q2 unemployment rate forecasts
  2009 2010 Feb. 2010 Feb. 2011 2013
Mean point estimate 9.3 10.5 10.3 10.5 8.4
Standard deviation 0.3 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.1
Number of replies 50 50 46 41 41
Probability distributions 2009 2010 Feb. 2010 Feb. 2011 2013
<5.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
5.5 to 5.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.4
6.0 to 6.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02.4
6.5 to 6.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.05.5
7.0 to 7.4% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.410.1
7.5 to 7.9% 0.3 0.1 0.2 1.216.0
8.0 to 8.4% 3.3 1.0 1.3 2.616.7
8.5 to 8.9% 15.7 2.9 6.3 6.514.5
9.0 to 9.4% 39.5 9.9 12.5 10.612.5
9.5 to 9.9% 29.1 16.8 18.4 15.88.0
10.0 to 10.4% 8.7 21.7 20.3 18.25.6
10.5 to 10.9% 2.6 21.1 20.1 17.03.3
11.0 to 11.4% 0.5 14.2 12.3 13.42.1
11.5 to 11.9% 0.1 6.8 4.6 6.31.7
12.0 to 12.4% 0.1 3.3 2.5 4.60.9
12.5 to 12.9% 0.0 1.4 1.1 2.30.2
13.0 to 13.4% 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.70.0
13.5 to 13.9% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.20.0
14.0 to 14.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.10.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.10.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0