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2010 Q1

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2010 Q1 inflation forecasts
  2010 2011 Dec. 2010 Dec. 2011 2014
Mean point estimate 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.9
Standard deviation 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2
Number of replies 61 58 53 50 51
Probability distributions 2010 2011 Dec. 2010 Dec. 2011 2014
<-1.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.20.2
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.50.3
-0.5 to -0.1% 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.70.9
0.0 to 0.4% 6.8 6.3 7.3 5.12.7
0.5 to 0.9% 22.0 14.4 14.8 11.26.6
1.0 to 1.4% 38.6 24.1 27.0 23.115.0
1.5 to 1.9% 22.4 30.1 28.6 27.830.3
2.0 to 2.4% 6.7 15.4 13.6 20.026.2
2.5 to 2.9% 1.7 5.0 4.7 7.111.3
3.0 to 3.4% 0.3 1.9 1.5 2.14.5
3.5 to 3.9% 0.1 0.7 0.4 1.01.6
>4.0% 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.20.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2010 Q1 real GDP growth forecasts
  2010 2011 2010 Q3 2011 Q3 2014
Mean point estimate 1.2 1.6 1.2 1.6 1.8
Standard deviation 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3
Number of replies 61 58 50 49 49
Probability distributions 2010 2011 2010 Q3 2011 Q3 2014
<-1.0% 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.60.3
-1.0 to -0.6% 1.0 1.0 1.9 1.00.9
-0.5 to -0.1% 3.4 2.4 3.9 2.81.9
0.0 to 0.4% 10.1 5.4 10.2 5.74.2
0.5 to 0.9% 22.5 13.5 20.2 12.48.8
1.0 to 1.4% 32.2 24.7 26.5 23.517.5
1.5 to 1.9% 20.2 27.3 22.0 25.327.5
2.0 to 2.4% 7.0 16.7 10.6 18.522.8
2.5 to 2.9% 2.2 5.6 3.2 7.39.8
3.0 to 3.4% 0.6 1.9 0.7 2.03.8
3.5 to 3.9% 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.71.8
>4.0% 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.20.6
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2010 Q1 unemployment rate forecasts
  2010 2011 Nov. 2010 Nov. 2011 2014
Mean point estimate 10.5 10.5 10.7 10.4 8.6
Standard deviation 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8
Number of replies 60 58 49 47 47
Probability distributions 2010 2011 Nov. 2010 Nov. 2011 2014
<6.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01.8
6.5 to 6.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.14.3
7.0 to 7.4% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.17.0
7.5 to 7.9% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.313.9
8.0 to 8.4% 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.717.6
8.5 to 8.9% 0.5 1.1 0.6 2.216.2
9.0 to 9.4% 1.6 5.0 2.0 6.714.8
9.5 to 9.9% 10.4 14.5 8.9 16.511.4
10.0 to 10.4% 32.1 25.1 25.6 27.06.7
10.5 to 10.9% 31.9 25.4 30.6 20.73.4
11.0 to 11.4% 15.7 15.9 19.5 12.11.3
11.5 to 11.9% 5.5 8.0 7.7 6.90.8
12.0 to 12.4% 1.7 3.3 2.8 3.30.5
12.5 to 12.9% 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.70.1
13.0 to 13.4% 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.10.1
13.5 to 13.9% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.50.0
14.0 to 14.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.20.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0