Niet beschikbaar in het Nederlands
Julius Schneider
- 20 February 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2787Details
- Abstract
- This paper evaluates the impact of the March 2020 European Central Bank recommenda-tion that banks do not pay dividends or buy back shares on their market values. It documents a causal negative impact on bank share prices of around 7% during the two weeks following its announcement. The recommendation affected the market values of banks directly, by delaying investor cash flows and indirectly, by increasing the uncertainty about future distri-butions and thus banks’ equity risk premia. The impact differed across banks depending on their distribution plans and risk-adjusted profitability. Our analysis highlights the impor-tance of managing perceptions about dividend uncertainty through credible communication about the expected duration, frequency and severity of dividend restrictions to limit their unintended side effects.
- JEL Code
- G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
G35 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Payout Policy
- 28 June 2021
- MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - ARTICLE - No. 13Details
- Abstract
- This article evaluates the impact on euro area bank valuations of the March 2020 European Central Bank (ECB) recommendation not to pay dividends or buy back shares. The analysis provides evidence of a negative impact on bank valuations in the order of magnitude of 7%. That impact is not, however, homogenous across banks: institutions that pay out dividends but fail to generate returns commensurate with investor requirements are found to be more strongly affected than those generating shareholder value or banks that are too weak to pay out dividends even in the absence of dividend restrictions. Further, the analysis suggests that uncertainty over future distributions arising from the SSM recommendation, rather than the suspension of dividends per se, explains most of the negative impact on bank valuations. By construction, this analysis captures the side effects of the measure, notwithstanding its overall merit in preserving bank capital and sustaining bank intermediation capacity during the COVID-19 period.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
C31 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Cross-Sectional Models, Spatial Models, Treatment Effect Models, Quantile Regressions, Social Interaction Models