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2005 Q1

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2005 Q1 inflation forecasts
  2005 2006 Dec. 2005 Dec. 2006 2009
Mean point estimate 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.9
Standard deviation 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
Number of replies 63 61 57 52 46
Probability distributions 2005 2006 Dec. 2005 Dec. 2006 2009
<0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.30.5
0.0-0.4% 0.2 1.0 0.7 1.11.5
0.5-0.9% 1.6 3.5 3.8 4.04.4
1.0-1.4% 8.2 12.1 15.3 14.312.6
1.5-1.9% 44.6 46.2 46.2 44.038.6
2.0-2.4% 37.6 28.1 27.4 26.730.2
2.5-2.9% 6.7 7.2 5.7 7.48.3
3.0-3.4% 0.9 1.5 0.7 1.82.9
>3.5% 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.41.1
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2005 Q1 real GDP growth forecasts
  2005 2006 2005 Q3 2006 Q3 2009
Mean point estimate 1.8 2.1 1.9 2.2 2.3
Standard deviation 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3
Number of replies 63 60 55 51 47
Probability distributions 2005 2006 2005 Q3 2006 Q3 2009
<0.0% 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.20.4
0.0-0.4% 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.70.8
0.5-0.9% 2.1 2.1 2.6 2.42.7
1.0-1.4% 15.1 7.8 14.5 7.47.6
1.5-1.9% 48.6 28.2 41.9 28.024.2
2.0-2.4% 25.7 41.5 30.5 40.136.3
2.5-2.9% 6.0 14.5 7.8 16.218.8
3.0-3.4% 1.1 3.3 1.4 3.86.7
3.5-3.9% 0.4 0.8 0.3 1.01.9
>4.0% 0.2 0.6 0.0 0.20.6
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2005 Q1 unemployment rate forecasts
  2005 2006 Nov. 2005 Nov. 2006 2009
Mean point estimate 8.8 8.5 8.7 8.4 7.5
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6
Number of replies 62 60 52 48 42
Probability distributions 2005 2006 Nov. 2005 Nov. 2006 2009
<5.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.4
5.5-5.9% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.11.2
6.0-6.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.24.3
6.5-6.9% 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.99.6
7.0-7.4% 0.6 1.6 0.7 2.919.8
7.5-7.9% 2.1 6.5 4.0 10.619.4
8.0-8.4% 9.7 27.9 15.4 27.124.8
8.5-8.9% 59.1 44.7 55.2 40.113.8
9.0-9.4% 23.5 14.1 19.8 13.84.8
9.5-9.9% 3.4 3.1 3.2 3.11.4
10.0-10.4% 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.90.6
10.5-10.9% 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.30.1
>11.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0