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Beatrice Scheubel

Macro Prud Policy&Financial Stability

Division: Financial Regulation and Policy
Current Position: Team Lead - Financial Stability
Fields of interest: Financial Economics,International Economics
Email: Beatrice.Scheubel@ecb.europa.eu

Biography

Education: 2007-2011
PhD in Public Economics - University of Munich (Germany); 2002-2007
Master & Bachelor in Economics (Diplom) - University of Munich (Germany) and University of Warwick (UK)
Professional experience: 2021-
Team Lead - ECB Directorate Macroprudential Policy and Financial Stability, Frankfurt (Germany); 2020-2021
Lead Economist - ECB Directorate International and European Relations, Frankfurt (Germany); 2011-2020
Economist - ECB Directorates Economics and International, Frankfurt (Germany); 2010-2011
Programme Director - CESifo GmbH, Munich (Germany); 2007-2011
Teaching and Research Fellow - Center for Economic Studies, University of Munich (Germany)
Teaching experience: 2012-
Guest lecturer - Goethe University Frankfurt (Germany); 2007-2011
Teaching and Research Fellow - Center for Economic Studies, University of Munich (Germany)

ECB publications

15 November 2024

OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 361

Keep calm, but watch the outliers: deposit flows in recent crisis episodes and beyond

English

Abstract: Since the March 2023 banking turmoil, a policy debate has emerged concerning the unprecedented scale and speed of the observed deposit outflows. Have recent stress episodes and developments in technology structurally changed depositors’ behaviour? Are the Basel III liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) run-off assumptions for cash outflows still fit for purpose? Leveraging on monthly liquidity reporting for a sample of 110 significant institutions (SIs) between 2016 and 2024, we shed light on some stylised facts pertaining to the composition of deposit flows in the banking union. Overall, we find limited evidence of a structural change in the statistical behaviour of deposit flows to date. For all but one of the deposit classes included in the analysis, more than 90% of observable net outflows remained below the LCR run-off assumptions during the whole sample period. Some extreme deposit outflows recorded during the COVID-19 pandemic and for a few SIs assessed as failing or likely to fail (FOLTF) remain rare tail events for which the LCR standard was not designed.
JEL Code: G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation

6 December 2023

MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - FOCUS - No. 23

Objectives and limitations of the liquidity coverage ratio

English

Abstract: This box reviews the objectives and design of the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) in the Basel Framework. It explains why liquidity regulation was introduced and how it is calibrated to enable banks to withstand a predefined hypothetical stress scenario combining both market-wide and idiosyncratic stress elements. The box also highlights the fact that the LCR is not designed to cover all tail events involving liquidity risk. Based on data for significant euro area (EA) institutions, the box finds that around 92% of all observed net outflow rates for retail deposits were lower than the outflow rates assumed in the LCR between 2016 and 2023. It also shows that ample liquidity buffers helped significant banks in the euro area to withstand the banking stress seen in March 2023 in other jurisdictions. Nevertheless, further analysis, including on the driving factors for some of the outliers observed during stress episodes, could facilitate a better understanding of whether the LCR calibration is working as intended. To anticipate and address extreme tail events (as well as risks) not covered by the LCR, liquidity regulation needs to be complemented by frequent and granular reporting as well as rigorous supervision.
JEL Code: G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation

13 September 2023

OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 317

Recent advances in the literature on capital flow management

English

Abstract: Large swings in cross-border capital flows can have consequences for domestic stability and open a channel for the transmission of shocks and spillovers across economies, including the euro area. Against this backdrop, the present paper reviews new evidence for the effectiveness of capital flow management policies in achieving macroeconomic and financial stability. Particular attention is paid to literature that has been used by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to underpin its so-called Integrated Policy Framework, in which the roles of monetary, exchange rate, macroprudential and capital flow management policies are considered jointly. The literature published since the global financial crisis continues to affirm the effectiveness of capital flow management measures (CFMs) in addressing financial stability risks resulting from capital flow reversals; at the same time, however, it also continues to underscore that such policies should not substitute for warranted economic adjustments and structural reforms. Even so, recent literature also provides a case for considering, under certain circumstances, “precautionary” CFMs which could be applied to capital inflows to prevent a boom-and-bust cycle from being set in motion. This paper also highlights the need for further work on the long-term effects of such precautionary instruments, as well as their joint use with monetary policy instruments. Regarding capital flow management policies within the domain of central banks, the literature points to the usefulness of foreign exchange interventions (FXIs) in mitigating financial stability risks in countries with specific characteristics such as currency mismatches, borrowing constraints and shallow foreign exchange markets that are common to emerging market and developing economies alike. However, the literature also warns that such measures may reduce economic agents’ incentives to hedge against currency risks, with the result that unfavourable initial conditions beco
JEL Code: F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F38 : International Economics→International Finance→International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls

4 December 2019

WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2337

The global financial cycle and capital flow episodes: a wobbly link?

English

Abstract: We add to the literature on the influence of the global financial cycle (GFC) and gyrations in capital flows. First, we build a new measure of the GFC based on a structural factor approach, which incorporates theoretical priors in its definition. This measure can also be decomposed in a price-based and quantity-based version of the GFC, which is novel in the literature. Second, we compare our measure to other common existing indicators of the GFC. Third, we estimate the influence of the fluctuations in the GFC on capital flow episodes (sudden stops, flights, retrenchments, surges) and currency crises, also testing for its stability and linearity. We find that the nexus between the GFC and capital flow episodes is generally consistent and not very wobbly. In line with theoretical priors, we find some evidence that the GFC is more important for sudden stops when it is more negative, i.e. the relationship is (mildly) convex, in keeping with a role for occasionally binding constraints, but the evidence for this feature is not strong.
JEL Code: F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F33 : International Economics→International Finance→International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
F44 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Business Cycles

12 April 2019

WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2262

Once bitten: new evidence on the link between IMF conditionality and IMF stigma

English

Abstract: While the consequences and effectiveness of IMF conditionality have long been the focus of research, the possible negative impact of IMF conditionality on countries’ willingness to ask for an IMF programme – often termed ‘IMF stigma’ – has recently received attention particularly from policy circles. In this paper we investigate how countries' past experience with the IMF and their peers’ experience with the IMF affect their likelihood of entering a subsequent IMF arrangement. Our results indicate that, even when controlling for the success of past programmes, a country is less likely to approach the IMF for help if in the past it experienced an above-average number of disbursement-relevant conditions. We find hardly any impact of peers’ experience, except for Asian countries.
JEL Code: F33 : International Economics→International Finance→International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
F53 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→International Agreements and Observance, International Organizations
F55 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→International Institutional Arrangements
H87 : Public Economics→Miscellaneous Issues→International Fiscal Issues, International Public Goods

15 November 2018

WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2198

Stigma? What stigma? A contribution to the debate on financial market effects of IMF lending

English

Abstract: In the policy debate on the effectiveness of the Global Financial Safety Net, concerns have been raised that expectations of adverse effects of IMF programmes may deter countries from asking for an IMF programme when they need one, a form of ‘IMF stigma’. We explore the existence of IMF financial market stigma using monthly data by estimating how and to which extent adverse market reactions to a programme materialise and how past experience with adverse market reactions affects subsequent IMF programme participation. Our results, derived with event history techniques and propensity score matching, indicate no role for ‘IMF stigma’ stemming from the fear of adverse market movements. Instead, we find evidence of ‘IMF recidivism’ driven by adverse selection and IMF conditionality.
JEL Code: E02 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Institutions and the Macroeconomy
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F33 : International Economics→International Finance→International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
F34 : International Economics→International Finance→International Lending and Debt Problems

15 September 2016

OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 177

What do we know about the global financial safety net? Rationale, data and possible evolution

English

Abstract: This paper critically reviews the theoretical basis for the provision of the global financial safety net (GFSN) and provides a comprehensive database covering four elements of the GFSN (foreign exchange reserves, IMF financing, central bank swap lines and regional financing arrangements) for over 150 countries in the sample period 1960-2015. This paper also presents some key stylised facts regarding the provision of GFSN financing and compares macroeconomic outcomes in capital flow reversal episodes depending on how much GFSN financing was available to countries. Finally, this paper concludes with some avenues for further research on the possible evolution of the GFSN.
JEL Code: F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F33 : International Economics→International Finance→International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
F34 : International Economics→International Finance→International Lending and Debt Problems
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
H87 : Public Economics→Miscellaneous Issues→International Fiscal Issues, International Public Goods

5 July 2023: ANNEX
GFSN data
English

18 September 2014

WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1734

Pensions and fertility: back to the roots - The introduction of Bismarck's pension scheme and the European fertility decline

English

Abstract: Fertility has long been declining in industrialised countries and the existence of public pension systems is considered as one of the causes. This paper provides detailed evidence based on historical data on the mechanism by which a public pension system depresses fertility. Our theoretical framework highlights that the effect of a public pension system on fertility works via the impact of contributions in such a system on disposable income as well as via the impact on future disposable income that is related to the internal rate of return of the pension system. Drawing on a unique historical data set which allows us to measure these variables at a jurisdictional level for a time when comprehensive social security was introduced, we estimate the effects predicted by the model. We find that beyond the traditional determinants of the first demographic transition, a lower internal rate of return of the pension system is associated with a higher birth rate. This result is robust to including the traditional determinants of the first demographic transition as controls as well as to other policy changes at the time.
JEL Code: C21 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Cross-Sectional Models, Spatial Models, Treatment Effect Models, Quantile Regressions
H31 : Public Economics→Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents→Household
H53 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
H55 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→Social Security and Public Pensions
J13 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Fertility, Family Planning, Child Care, Children, Youth
J18 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Public Policy
J26 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Retirement, Retirement Policies
N33 : Economic History→Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy→Europe: Pre-1913

18 June 2013

WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1556

Measuring institutional competitiveness in Europe

English

Abstract: While there are many methods to measure the competitiveness of an economy, most of these concepts ignore the fact that competitiveness can change because of market processes like wage negotiation but also because of political decision-making. Governments that compete with others for factors of production face the incentive to adjust key policy variables to improve their competitive position. Disentangling market-induced and politics-induced changes in competitiveness is not easy, but strongly warranted given current discussions that some EMU Member States should improve their competitive position within the euro area by adjusting policy variables. Increasing country competitiveness is one of the key objectives currently discussed by policy makers in the context of creating an economic union in the euro area, to complement monetary union. We propose a new competitiveness index that captures the dimensions in which politics can influence competitiveness beyond factor price adjustments. Our index shows that the individual components of institutional competitiveness have developed heterogeneously among EMU Member States. To explain these divergent developments, the uneven integration within the EU Single Market may play a role.
JEL Code: E02 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Institutions and the Macroeconomy
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
H11 : Public Economics→Structure and Scope of Government→Structure, Scope, and Performance of Government
N44 : Economic History→Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation→Europe: 1913?
Network: Competitiveness Research Network