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Gabor Pula
- 4 February 2013
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 142Details
- Abstract
- In this paper we provide an overview of the growth model in China and its prospects, taking a medium-run to long-run perspective. Our main conclusions are as follows. First, the still prevailing producer-biased model of managed capitalism in China tends to engender, as an inherent by-product, serious imbalances which cannot be unwound without a fundamental overhaul of the model itself. Second, given the lack of a critical mass of economic reforms thus far, imbalances may (re-)escalate once global and domestic economic conditions normalise. Third, the fundamental factors underpinning growth in China are likely to remain supportive, at least over the medium run. Although this could help mitigate the economic costs of imbalances for some time to come, it could also reduce the incentives for policy-makers to enact much needed reforms. Fourth, delayed policy action and the persistence of the model of growth cum imbalances would increase the risk of China getting caught in the middle-income trap in the long run. Greater political will to redirect China's growth model towards a more sustainable path is therefore needed.
- JEL Code
- E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E25 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F43 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Economic Growth of Open Economies
O11 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O53 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Asia including Middle East
- 24 March 2011
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1310Details
- Abstract
- There is an ongoing debate in the literature about the quality content of Chinese exports and to what extent China imposes a threat to the market positions of advanced economies. While China
- JEL Code
- F1 : International Economics→Trade
F12 : International Economics→Trade→Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies, Fragmentation
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F23 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→Multinational Firms, International Business
- 14 January 2009
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 993Details
- Abstract
- Due to the emergence of global production networks, trade statistics have became less accurate in describing the dependence of emerging Asia on external demand. This paper analyses, using an update of the Asian International Input-Output (AIO) table, the interdependence of emerging Asian countries, the United States, the EU15, and Japan via trade and production linkages. According to the results, we do not find evidence of the decoupling of emerging Asia from the rest of the world. On the contrary, we find evidence on increasing trade integration, both globally and regionally. Nonetheless, our analysis indicates that emerging Asia’s dependence on exports is only about one-third of its GDP, i.e. well below the 50% exposure suggested by trade data. This finding can be explained by the high import content of exports in these economies, which is a result of the increasing segmentation of production across the region.
- JEL Code
- F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
C67 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→Input?Output Models
E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
- 31 July 2008
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 918Details
- Abstract
- The paper analyses the impact of import penetration on firms' profitability in 15 manufacturing industries in 10 euro area countries during 1995-2004, focusing on the role of emerging market economies. Our results indicate that import competition from emerging market economies has had an overall negative impact on companies' profitability in the euro area manufacturing sector, especially for imports coming from China and Russia. However, similar negative effects are also estimated for imports from the United States. In contrast, imports from Latin America are estimated to be positively correlated with profitability. Finally, we find asymmetric effects on profitability across euro area countries and sectors.
- JEL Code
- L11 : Industrial Organization→Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance→Production, Pricing, and Market Structure, Size Distribution of Firms
L13 : Industrial Organization→Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance→Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
F12 : International Economics→Trade→Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies, Fragmentation
C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models